字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント MALE SPEAKER: So today we're here to talk about a special book. This is a book that has lots of pictures, lots of profiles, lots of wisdom in it. And you just wish that when you're reading this book that you didn't have to pay as much as the sticker tag, because it's prohibitively expensive. But part of the reason is it's also a fantastic book. It's a great book. And we have the author of that book here with us today. William Green has been writing about investing and other topics for over two decades now. And as you read the words in the book. "The Great Minds of Investing," you realize that he has tried to talk about the wisdom of great investors, but not restricted it to investing alone. He's taken it beyond that. And he's put it together in a very, very authentic voice. I'm very honored and very happy that he has decided to come here in person and talk to us about his thoughts. So without any further ado, ladies and gentlemen, please join me in welcoming William Green. [APPLAUSE] WILLIAM GREEN: Thank you so much. I'm delighted to be here. And I'm so grateful to you all for taking time off during your lunch break to come here. And I'm actually particularly happy to be here because I'm actually a shareholder in Google, or now Alphabet. And it's pretty much the only investment that I've had over the last year or so that's done really well. So keep it up. My retirement is in your hands. But I feel happy because I've rarely been in a room where there are so many IQ points. So thank you for all of your ingenuity and hard work. When I was 15 years old, I became obsessed with gambling, and specifically actually with horse racing. And at the time I was at this very posh English school, a school called Eton College that had been founded, I think, in 1440 by Henry the VI I think. And this is a school where people like Prince William and Prince Harry went and the current British prime minister, David Cameron. And so I was supposed to be becoming this posh English gentleman, and instead I would go off to gamble in this turf account in this betting shop in Windsor, the neighboring town next to Eton College. And I actually had this illicit account because I was only, I guess, 15. So I had an account under a fake name, which was Mike Smith-- not a very creative name. And at first I did pretty well. And I made some money, totally randomly. It wasn't because I knew what I was doing, although I think at the time I thought I did. And then after a while, I sort of started to lose. And I realized-- basically the reason I had started in the first place, it wasn't because I loved horses. It wasn't because I thought this is an incredibly beautiful sport or anything. I just liked the idea that here was something where you could make money just by using your mind. And I was kind of lazy. And I thought well, I don't want to mow lawns or anything. And here if I can just sort of invest a little bit of money on a horse race and make some money, that's fantastic. And when I started to lose, I just thought, I'm going to stop cold turkey. And literally I stopped at the age of 16. And I haven't had a bet on a horse race, I haven't been to a casino and gambled in more than 30 years, because basically it's a mugs game. You're just losing. You're just doomed to lose. The odds, unless you're particularly brilliant at sort of figuring out odds, you're just kind of doomed to lose. And so I stopped completely. And then when I got to my 20s, I discovered the stock market. And then I thought wow, now this is what I was really after. This is the real game. Because again, this is somewhere where, if you're smart, you can use your brain just to make money without really getting your hands dirty in any way. And I just thought this was magnificent. Now I was very fortunate, you know, that-- thanks. That was a very good move. That was impressive. I want to see that again if you could do it. And then I was very fortunate in that I was writing for these magazines back then like "Forbes" and "Money" and later for "Fortune" and "Time." And so I got to interview all sorts of famous investors. So I would, for example, I would get to interview Peter Lynch or Jeff Vinik who was managing the biggest mutual fund in the world when he was in his early 30s, or Seth Klarman or Marty Whitman, Bill Ruane who ran the Sequoia Fund for many years, some of these extraordinary investors. And I would go off to Houston, for example, and I'd meet Fayez Serofim, who is this Egyptian multibilllionaire known as the Sphinx. And he has an El Greco painting, a 430 year old El Greco painting on one wall, a de Kooning on another wall, and he's got this 5th century mosaic floor from Syria that he's imported from a Syrian church. And I became really fascinated by the fact that there was this tiny minority of people that managed to defy gravity by performing extraordinarily well for many years as investors. And I sort of figured, what if you could reverse engineer these people and figure out why it is that they win this game? How do they stack the odds so that they win as investors? What characteristics do they have in terms of temperament, in terms of principles, in terms of insights? And is there any way that I could learn to do this? Then over the last couple of years I was working on this book, "The Great Minds of Investing," where I had this opportunity-- in the end I interviewed I think 22 of these guys and I wrote profiles of 22 famous investors and edited profiles of several more. And by this time, part of what happens I think when you hit your 40s is that you start to suffer from all sorts of existential angst. So instead of just thinking, how do I get rich by reverse engineering these people, you start to think, well how do I live? How do I make better decisions? How do I eradicate what Charlie Munger would call standard stupidities? How do we make good decisions in the face of a very uncertain future? How do I handle adversity? How do I handle pain? How do I handle stress? How do I balance my family, who are here-- so obviously not very well-- my family, my work, all of these things? And so the question really became how to live. And so what I'd like to do today is to share four lessons that I think are really-- they're very useful in terms of investing, or at least three of them are. And I think they will help to make you richer over the long term. But I actually think they're also very important in terms of life. And really it seems to me that the goal is to reverse engineer these people to figure out, how do I become richer? How do I become smarter and wiser? And how do I become happier? And so I think these are lessons that help you in each of these areas And we're going to talk-- I've got these four things up here. Hopefully you can see if the technology is working. The first idea we're going to discuss is the willingness to be lonely. And what we're really talking about here is this idea that you have to take what Peter Bernstein, the market historian once described as uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions. That if you want to outperform, you have to diverge from the crowd. You have to be willing to be lonely. And this has powerful implications both in terms of investing and other areas of life. The second idea we're going to discuss is the power of humility, which as we'll see is a somewhat contradictory idea. You have to have the self-confidence to go your own way, but you also have the humility to say yeah, but what if I'm wrong. And then you have to build in safeguards in case you're wrong. The third idea-- sorry for these gloomy titles. My son Henry said to me, man, that's a real downer. The third title is the ability to take pain. But what we're really talking about here is emotional resilience, which I have come to believe over many years of covering investing is really one of the absolute keys to long term success as an investor. And what we're talking about with all of these people, we're not talking about being great as an investor over one cycle. We're trying to achieve success over many decades. And so you need this ability to take pain, because there are going to be times when you're hit. And this obviously also relates to other aspects of life. The fourth topic, which is slightly more elevated in areas, is the key to happiness, which it strikes me that one of the things you really want to learn from these great investors is how do I not just become rich, but how do I make the money work for me so that it's not just sort of a short circuit in my life, but is actually something that enriches my life? So the fourth section is really about what you could call true prosperity. And what we're really talking about with all of these things is the ability to stack the odds in your favor so that you're kind of tilting the playing field so that the odds of having a successful life in all of these different areas is increased. So the willingness to be lonely-- back in, I'd say, the winter of 1998, I got this fantastic assignment to go interview Sir John Templeton. And as many of you know, Templeton was one of the greatest investors of the last century. At the time he was 85 years old. If you had invested in the Templeton growth fund, over 38 years he compounded a rate of about 15% a year. And as a result, your $10,000 would turn into $2 million. And in fact his returns-- that doesn't really reflect his returns because he was an extraordinary investor really for about 60 or so years. So he defines this ability to have great success over a long period. Now Templeton lived in this gated community called Lyford Cay in the Bahamas, which was a fascinating place. He had decided early in his life he was going to save-- he saved half of the money that he made early in his career, and then decided with his wife, we're going to be able to live anywhere we want in the world. And so they took a bunch of pieces of paper and figured out that Lyford Cay was the place-- Lyford Cay was a place where people like Prince Rainier of Monaco lived. The Aga Khan had a house there. Sean Connery had a house there. I think part of "Thunderbolt", the Bond movie was filmed there. So this was a pretty sweet gig to go in the middle of winter, to go interview Templeton, this great guru at Lyford Cay. And I remember as I came up to his house, there's actually, as you walked along the porch of his house, an electronic dog starts barking. And I had this quandary whether I should out him in this article as having this fake security, which of course I did mention in the article. And so Templeton is kind of this giant of this period, this 85-year-old who is really the pioneer of international investing.