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  • Roy Price is a man that most of you have probably never heard about,

    翻訳: Kazunori Akashi 校正: Misaki Sato

  • even though he may have been responsible

    ロイ・プライスを知っている人は ほとんどいないでしょう

  • for 22 somewhat mediocre minutes of your life on April 19, 2013.

    でも彼こそ 2013年4月19日に

  • He may have also been responsible for 22 very entertaining minutes,

    22分間 みなさんを 退屈させたであろう張本人です

  • but not very many of you.

    その時間が「楽しかった」と言う人も いるかもしれませんが

  • And all of that goes back to a decision


  • that Roy had to make about three years ago.

    すべては その3年前に

  • So you see, Roy Price is a senior executive with Amazon Studios.

    ロイが下した ある決定にさかのぼります

  • That's the TV production company of Amazon.

    ロイ・プライスが役員を務めるのは アマゾン・スタジオ すなわち

  • He's 47 years old, slim, spiky hair,


  • describes himself on Twitter as "movies, TV, technology, tacos."

    彼は すらっとして 髪を逆立てた 47歳

  • And Roy Price has a very responsible job, because it's his responsibility

    Twitterの自己紹介は「映画 テレビ テクノロジーとタコス 好き」です

  • to pick the shows, the original content that Amazon is going to make.

    Amazonが制作するオリジナル番組を 選ぶのが彼の仕事ですから

  • And of course that's a highly competitive space.


  • I mean, there are so many TV shows already out there,


  • that Roy can't just choose any show.


  • He has to find shows that are really, really great.


  • So in other words, he has to find shows

    本当にすごい番組を 見出さなければならないんです

  • that are on the very right end of this curve here.

    つまり このグラフの右端に来るような

  • So this curve here is the rating distribution


  • of about 2,500 TV shows on the website IMDB,

    このグラフは IMDbというサイトに

  • and the rating goes from one to 10,

    掲載されている 約2,500番組の評価の分布です

  • and the height here shows you how many shows get that rating.

    評価は 1から10まで

  • So if your show gets a rating of nine points or higher, that's a winner.

    縦軸は その評価を得た番組の数です

  • Then you have a top two percent show.

    もし 選んだ番組が9点以上の 評価を得れば 成功と言えます

  • That's shows like "Breaking Bad," "Game of Thrones," "The Wire,"


  • so all of these shows that are addictive,

    『ブレイキング・バッド』や 『ゲーム・オブ・スローンズ』『ザ・ワイヤー』が

  • whereafter you've watched a season, your brain is basically like,

    それに当たる番組で どれもハマりやすく

  • "Where can I get more of these episodes?"

    1シーズン見たら 「どこで もっと見られる?」と

  • That kind of show.


  • On the left side, just for clarity, here on that end,


  • you have a show called "Toddlers and Tiaras" --

    一応 説明すると 左端には

  • (Laughter)

    美少女コンテスト・リアリティー番組 『Toddlers & Tiaras』が来ます

  • -- which should tell you enough


  • about what's going on on that end of the curve.

    これで グラフの左端が

  • Now, Roy Price is not worried about getting on the left end of the curve,

    何を表しているか よくわかるはずです

  • because I think you would have to have some serious brainpower

    ただロイ・プライスは 左端のことは 心配していません

  • to undercut "Toddlers and Tiaras."

    『Toddlers & Tiaras』を下回るには

  • So what he's worried about is this middle bulge here,


  • the bulge of average TV,

    だから 彼が心配するのは グラフのピーク付近です

  • you know, those shows that aren't really good or really bad,


  • they don't really get you excited.

    可もなく不可もなく 特に見たいとも思わない

  • So he needs to make sure that he's really on the right end of this.


  • So the pressure is on,

    だから 何としてもグラフの右端に 行かなくてはなりません

  • and of course it's also the first time


  • that Amazon is even doing something like this,

    Amazonが こういう事業を

  • so Roy Price does not want to take any chances.


  • He wants to engineer success.

    ロイ・プライスは 賭けに出る気はありません

  • He needs a guaranteed success,

    絶対 成功する方法を考えます

  • and so what he does is, he holds a competition.


  • So he takes a bunch of ideas for TV shows,


  • and from those ideas, through an evaluation,


  • they select eight candidates for TV shows,

    それぞれ評価し その中から

  • and then he just makes the first episode of each one of these shows


  • and puts them online for free for everyone to watch.

    それから それぞれ1話を オンラインで公開し

  • And so when Amazon is giving out free stuff,


  • you're going to take it, right?


  • So millions of viewers are watching those episodes.


  • What they don't realize is that, while they're watching their shows,

    その結果 数百万人が 番組を見ることになります

  • actually, they are being watched.

    ただ視聴者が気付いていないのは 番組を見ている間

  • They are being watched by Roy Price and his team,


  • who record everything.

    ロイのチームは すべてを記録して

  • They record when somebody presses play, when somebody presses pause,


  • what parts they skip, what parts they watch again.

    いつ再生し いつ一時停止したか どこを飛ばし

  • So they collect millions of data points,

    どこをもう一度見たか 記録するんです

  • because they want to have those data points

    こうして数百万の データポイントを集めます

  • to then decide which show they should make.


  • And sure enough, so they collect all the data,

    どの番組を制作するか 決定します

  • they do all the data crunching, and an answer emerges,


  • and the answer is,

    データを分析すると 答えが見えてきました

  • "Amazon should do a sitcom about four Republican US Senators."


  • They did that show.

    「制作すべき番組は4人の共和党 上院議員が主役のホームコメディである」

  • So does anyone know the name of the show?


  • (Audience: "Alpha House.")


  • Yes, "Alpha House,"


  • but it seems like not too many of you here remember that show, actually,

    そう 『アルファ・ハウス』です

  • because it didn't turn out that great.


  • It's actually just an average show,


  • actually -- literally, in fact, because the average of this curve here is at 7.4,


  • and "Alpha House" lands at 7.5,

    このグラフの平均は7.4ですが 『アルファ・ハウス』は7.5でしたから

  • so a slightly above average show,


  • but certainly not what Roy Price and his team were aiming for.


  • Meanwhile, however, at about the same time,

    当然 ロイ・プライスたちの 狙いとはかけ離れています

  • at another company,

    話かわって 同じ頃

  • another executive did manage to land a top show using data analysis,


  • and his name is Ted,

    もう一人の重役がデータ分析で ヒット番組を作ろうとしていました

  • Ted Sarandos, who is the Chief Content Officer of Netflix,


  • and just like Roy, he's on a constant mission

    テッド・サランドス Netflix社のコンテンツ部門代表です

  • to find that great TV show,

    ロイと同じように 最高の番組を

  • and he uses data as well to do that,


  • except he does it a little bit differently.


  • So instead of holding a competition, what he did -- and his team of course --


  • was they looked at all the data they already had about Netflix viewers,

    彼のチームは コンテストを開くのではなく

  • you know, the ratings they give their shows,

    Netflixの視聴者に関する 全データを分析しました

  • the viewing histories, what shows people like, and so on.


  • And then they use that data to discover

    どんな番組が好まれるか といったデータです

  • all of these little bits and pieces about the audience:

    そして ここから視聴者に関する

  • what kinds of shows they like,

    こまごまとした情報を 探っていくのです

  • what kind of producers, what kind of actors.


  • And once they had all of these pieces together,

    プロデューサー 俳優についてです

  • they took a leap of faith,


  • and they decided to license


  • not a sitcom about four Senators


  • but a drama series about a single Senator.


  • You guys know the show?

    1人の上院議員が登場する ドラマシリーズでした

  • (Laughter)


  • Yes, "House of Cards," and Netflix of course, nailed it with that show,


  • at least for the first two seasons.

    そう『ハウス・オブ・カード 野望の階段』で Netflixは

  • (Laughter) (Applause)


  • "House of Cards" gets a 9.1 rating on this curve,


  • so it's exactly where they wanted it to be.

    『ハウス・オブ・カード』は 9.1の評価を得ていて

  • Now, the question of course is, what happened here?


  • So you have two very competitive, data-savvy companies.

    ここで当然 疑問が湧いてきます

  • They connect all of these millions of data points,

    競争力が高くデータに強い 2つの会社があり

  • and then it works beautifully for one of them,

    どちらも数百万のデータポイントを 組み合わせていますが

  • and it doesn't work for the other one.

    片方は とてもうまくいき

  • So why?

    もう片方は うまくいかない

  • Because logic kind of tells you that this should be working all the time.


  • I mean, if you're collecting millions of data points


  • on a decision you're going to make,

    つまり ある決定を下そうとする時に

  • then you should be able to make a pretty good decision.


  • You have 200 years of statistics to rely on.


  • You're amplifying it with very powerful computers.


  • The least you could expect is good TV, right?

    高性能のコンピュータが 力を貸してくれます

  • And if data analysis does not work that way,

    平凡な番組に終わるはずなど ないでしょう

  • then it actually gets a little scary,

    ただ もしデータ分析が 思い通りにならなかったら

  • because we live in a time where we're turning to data more and more


  • to make very serious decisions that go far beyond TV.

    というのも テレビ以外の 様々な重要な決断を下す時

  • Does anyone here know the company Multi-Health Systems?

    ますますデータに頼る時代に 私たちは生きているんですから

  • No one. OK, that's good actually.

    Multi-Health Systems という会社を 知っている方はいますか?

  • OK, so Multi-Health Systems is a software company,

    いませんね よかった

  • and I hope that nobody here in this room

    Multi-Health Systems は ソフトウェア会社ですが

  • ever comes into contact with that software,

    ここに お世話になる人が いないといいですね

  • because if you do, it means you're in prison.

    もし お世話になるとすれば その人は

  • (Laughter)


  • If someone here in the US is in prison, and they apply for parole,


  • then it's very likely that data analysis software from that company

    アメリカで刑務所に入っている人が 仮釈放を申請すると

  • will be used in determining whether to grant that parole.

    許可するかどうかを決めるために この会社のデータ分析ソフトが

  • So it's the same principle as Amazon and Netflix,


  • but now instead of deciding whether a TV show is going to be good or bad,


  • you're deciding whether a person is going to be good or bad.

    テレビ番組の良し悪しを 決めるのではなく

  • And mediocre TV, 22 minutes, that can be pretty bad,


  • but more years in prison, I guess, even worse.

    22分間 退屈な番組を見るのは 苦痛かもしれませんが

  • And unfortunately, there is actually some evidence that this data analysis,

    さらに数年 刑務所で過ごすのは ずっときついでしょう

  • despite having lots of data, does not always produce optimum results.

    ただ残念なことに データ分析では 大量のデータがあったとしても

  • And that's not because a company like Multi-Health Systems

    常に最適な結果を出せるとは 限らないという証拠があります

  • doesn't know what to do with data.

    これはMulti-Health Systemsなどの企業が

  • Even the most data-savvy companies get it wrong.


  • Yes, even Google gets it wrong sometimes.


  • In 2009, Google announced that they were able, with data analysis,

    そう Googleさえ 時に間違うんです

  • to predict outbreaks of influenza, the nasty kind of flu,

    2009年 Googleは ある発表をしました

  • by doing data analysis on their Google searches.

    検索データを分析することで 感染力の強いインフルエンザの

  • And it worked beautifully, and it made a big splash in the news,


  • including the pinnacle of scientific success:

    予測は かなりうまくいき 大きなニュースになりました

  • a publication in the journal "Nature."

    科学界 最大の栄誉である

  • It worked beautifully for year after year after year,


  • until one year it failed.

    予測は翌年も次の年も うまくいっていましたが

  • And nobody could even tell exactly why.

    ある年 失敗しました

  • It just didn't work that year,


  • and of course that again made big news,


  • including now a retraction

    もちろん これも大きなニュースになり

  • of a publication from the journal "Nature."


  • So even the most data-savvy companies, Amazon and Google,


  • they sometimes get it wrong.

    AmazonやGoogleといった 極めてデータに強い企業でさえ

  • And despite all those failures,


  • data is moving rapidly into real-life decision-making --

    一方 このような失敗にも関わらず

  • into the workplace,

    データは すごいスピードで 日常の意思決定にも

  • law enforcement,

    仕事の場にも 法執行機関にも

  • medicine.