or actually Rockaway Park.

これは 私と父の写真です

I'm the one with the blond hair.

ファーロッカウェイのビーチ

My dad's the guy with the cigarette.

ロッカウェイ公園かな

It was the 60's.

ブロンドの髪が私で

A lot of people smoked back then.

タバコを持っているのが父

In the summer of 2009, my dad was diagnosed with lung cancer.

60年代 この頃は みんな吸っていたんですよね

Cancer is one of those things that actually touches everybody.

2009年の夏に

If you're a man in the US,

父は肺ガンと診断されました

you've got about a one in two chance

誰でも 癌にはドキッとしますよね

of being diagnosed with cancer during your lifetime.

アメリカ合衆国の男性なら

If you're a woman, you've got about a one in three chance

一生の内で癌と診断されるのは

of being diagnosed with cancer.

２人に１人

Everybody knows somebody who's been diagnosed with cancer.

女性なら ３人に１人が

Now, my dad's doing better today,

癌になります

and part of the reason for that is that he was able to participate in the trial

誰もが

of an experimental new drug that happened to be specially formulated

癌になった人を　 知っていますよね

and very good for his particular kind of cancer.

現在  私の父は快方に向っていますが

There are over 200 kinds of cancer.

その理由の一つは

And what I want to talk about today

実験段階の新薬の

is how we can help more people like my dad,

臨床試験を 受けることができたからです

because we have to change the way we think about raising money

その新薬は 特別に処方され

to fund cancer research.

彼の癌には　　 とても良く効いたのですね

So a while after my dad was diagnosed,

癌には200以上の種類があります

I was having coffee with my friend Andrew Lo.

今日私がお話したいのは どうしたら

He's the head of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at MIT,

父のような人を より多く助けられるかについてです

where I also have a position,

なぜなら 癌研究の資金集めについての

and we were talking about cancer.

考え方を変える必要があるからです

And Andrew had been doing his own bits of research,

父が癌だとわかった後 ある時

and one of the things that he had been told

私は 友人のアンドリュー・ローと コーヒーを飲んでいました

and that he'd learned from studying the literature

彼は ＭＩＴの金融工学の 研究室長です

was that there's actually a big bottleneck.

私もそこで働いていて

It's very difficult to develop new drugs,

癌について話していました

and the reason it's difficult to develop new drugs

アンドリューは ちょっとした研究を 続けていましたが

is because in the early stages of drug development,

他の人に教えられた事の 一つについて

the drugs are very risky, and they're very expensive.

文献を調べてみると 実に大きなボトルネックがあることが

So Andrew asked me if I'd want to maybe work with him a bit,

分かったのです

work on some of the math and the analytics

新薬の開発は とても困難なものです

and see if we could figure out something we could do.

難しい理由は

Now I'm not a scientist.

新薬開発の初期段階においては

You know, I don't know how to build a drug.

薬剤のリスクは非常に高く

And none of my coauthors, Andrew Lo or Jose-Maria Fernandez or David Fagnan --

また とても費用がかかるからです

none of those guys are scientists either.

そこで 私はアンドリューから

We don't know the first thing about how to make a cancer drug.

彼の仕事を　 数学と分析学を使って

But we know a little bit about risk mitigation

手伝ってもらえないか

and a little bit about financial engineering,

我々に出来る事を 見い出せないだろうかと頼まれました

and so we started thinking, what could we do?

私は科学者ではありません

I'm going to tell you about some work

私には 薬剤の作り方は分からないし

we've been doing over the last couple years

共著者のアンドリュー・ローも

that we think could fundamentally change the way

ホセ・マリア・ヘルナンデスも デービッド・ファグナンも

research for cancer and lots of other things gets done.

科学者ではありません

We want to let the research drive the funding,

癌治療薬の作り方の イロハも分からないのです

not the other way around.

でも リスクの軽減や 金融工学については

So in order to get started,

多少知識があります

let me tell you how you get a drug financed.

そこで考え始めました 我々に何が出来るだろう？

Imagine that you're in your lab -- you're a scientist, you're not like me --

ここ数年に亘り

and you've developed a new compound

研究してきた事をお話します

that you think might be therapeutic for somebody with cancer.

我々は それによって 癌その他の研究が

Well, what you do is, you test in animals, you test in test tubes,

根本的に変わるだろうと考えています

but there's this notion of going from the bench to the bedside,

我々は 研究が資金提供を促すように したいのであって

and in order to get from the bench, the lab, to the bedside, to the patients,

その逆ではありません

you've got to get the drug tested.

まず 薬への資金提供とは

And the way the drug gets tested

どういう事かお話しましょう

is through a series of, basically, experiments,

想像して下さい　 あなたは科学者で

through these large, they're called trials,

実験室にいます

that they do to determine whether the drug is safe

私と違って 科学者だから

and whether it works and all these things.

癌患者の治療に有効かもしれない

So the FDA has a very specific protocol.

化合物を開発しました

In the first phase of this testing,

動物でテストし

which is called testing for toxicity, it's called Phase I.

試験管でテストし

In the first phase, you give the drug to healthy people

でも 最終的には実験台から

and you see if it actually makes them sick.

臨床への移行を目指します

In other words, are the side effects just so severe

実験室の実験台から

that no matter how much good it does,

ベッドにいる患者への投与に至るには

it's not going to be worth it?

その薬をテストしなければなりません

Does it cause heart attacks, kill people, liver failure?

薬のテストは 基本的には

And it turns out, that's a pretty high hurdle.

一連の実験です

About a third of all drugs drop out at that point.

この治験と呼ばれる

In the next phase, you test to see if the drug's effective,

大がかりな実験で その薬が安全かどうか

and you give it to people with cancer

そして 有効かどうかを決めるのです

and you see if it makes them better.

そこでＦＤＡは　 とても具体的な実施要綱を作っています

And that's also a higher hurdle. People drop out.

このテストの第１期は

And in the third phase, you test it on a very large sample,

毒性テストで

and you're trying to determine what the right dose is,

フェーズ１と呼ばれます

is it better than what's available today? If not, then why build it?

健康な人に薬を与え　 実際に

When you're done with all that,

具合が悪くならないかどうかを 見るのです

what you have is a very small percentage of drugs

言葉を変えれば どんなに良く効く薬でも

that start the process actually come out the other side.

副作用がものすごく強ければ

So those blue bottles -- those blue bottles save lives,

価値が無いわけです

and they're also worth billions, sometimes billions a year.

心臓発作で死んだり　 肝機能障害等を

So now here's a question:

引き起こすかどうか

if I were to ask you, for example,

それが起こるようなら かなりハードルは高くなります

to make a one-time investment of, say, 200 million dollars

この時点で 約３分の１の薬は 脱落します

to buy one of those bottles,

次の段階は 薬の有効性を見るテストです

so 200 million dollars up front, one time, to buy one of those bottles,

ここでは 癌患者に薬を投与します

I won't tell you which one it is,

それで 実際に良くなるかを見るのです

and in 10 years, I'll tell you whether you have one of the blue ones.

さらに高いハードルですね ここでは人が抜けていきます

Does that sound like a good deal for anybody?

そして 第３段階で　 かなり大きなサンプルでテストします

No. No, right?

適切な服用量や 今使われているものより良いかどうかを

And of course, it's a very, very risky trial position,

決めようとするのです

and that's why it's very hard to get funding,

そうでなければ 作らないでしょ？

but to a first approximation, that's actually the proposal.

すべてを終えて

You have to fund these things from the early stages on.

ごく僅かな割合の薬だけが

It takes a long time.

やっと実際に次のプロセスに行けるのです

So Andrew said to me, he said,

このブルーのボトル これが命を救うのです

"What if we stop thinking about these as drugs?

さらに 何十億ドルの価値があります

What if we start thinking about them as financial assets?"

時には １年に何十億ドル

They've got really weird payoff structures and all that,

ここで質問です

but let's throw everything we know about financial engineering at them.

例えば 私があなた方に

Let's see if we can use all the tricks of the trade

投資を１回お願いするとします

to figure out how to make these drugs work as financial assets.

そうですね 200万ドルで

Let's create a giant fund.

ボトルの１つを買うとしましょう

In finance, we know what to do with assets that are risky.

これらのボトルの内の

You put them in a portfolio and you try to smooth out the returns.

１つを買うのに200万ドル

So we did some math, and it turned out you could make this work,

私は どのボトルかは教えません

but in order to make it work, you need about 80 to 150 drugs.

10年後に あなたが買ったのが ブルーのボトルだったのかを教えます

Now the good news is, there's plenty of drugs

儲かる話に聞こえます？

that are waiting to be tested.

ダメ…ですよね？

We've been told that there's a backlog of about 20 years of drugs

もちろん ものすごくリスクのある試みです

that are waiting to be tested but can't be funded.

だから　 ものすごく資金を集めにくい

In fact, that early stage of the funding process,

でも これが我々の提案の

that Phase I and preclinical stuff,

原点となるところです

that's actually, in the industry, called the Valley of Death

これらのテストの最初の段階から

because it's where drugs go to die.

資金を提供しなければならないので 長い時間がかかります

It's very hard to for them to get through there,

アンドリューが私に言いました

and of course, if you can't get through there,

薬だと思わなければどう？

you can't get to the later stages.

金融資産だと考えてみるのはどうかな？

So we did this math, and we figured out, OK,

ペイオフ構造は 実に怪しげですが

well, you need about 80 to, say, 150, or something like that, drugs.

我々の金融工学の

And then we did a little more math, and we said, OK,

知識を全部捨てましょう

well, that's a fund of about three to 15 billion dollars.

トレードの技を駆使し

So we kind of created a new problem by solving the old one.

これらの薬が金融資産になりえるか

We got rid of the risk, but now we need a lot of capital,

考えてみましょう

and you can only get that kind of capital in the capital markets.

まず 巨大なファンドを作ります

Venture capitalists and philanthropies don't have it.

リスクのある資産をどうするかは

But we have to figure out how to get people in the capital markets,

分かってますよね

who traditionally don't invest in this, to want to invest in this stuff.

ポートフォリオに入れて

So again, financial engineering was helpful here.

利益の変動を平坦にします

Imagine the megafund starts empty,

そこで 計算してみると

and what it does is it issues some debt and some equity,

上手く行くことが分りました しかし そのためには

and that generates cash flow.

約80～150の薬が必要になります

That cash flow is used, then, to buy that big portfolio of drugs that you need,

幸いにも テスト待ちの薬は

and those drugs start working their way through that approval process,

たくさんあります

and each time they go through a phase of approval,

すでにお話したように

they gain value.

約20年分の薬が 資金が無いために

Most of them don't make it, but a few of them do,

テストを受けられずに 待っているのです

and with the ones that gain value, you can sell some,

実際に フェーズ１の

and when you sell them,

臨床前の薬に資金提供するプロセスの

you have money to pay the interest on those bonds,

初期段階は 産業界では 「死の谷」と呼ばれています

but also to fund the next round of trials.

薬が死にゆく所だからです

It's almost self-funding.

次の段階に進むのは 非常に難しく

You do that for the course of the transaction,

もちろん パスしなければ 次の段階には行けません

and when you're done, you liquidate the portfolio,

計算をして割り出してみると

pay back the bonds, and you can give the equity holders a nice return.

一つパスするには薬が 約80～150位は必要だと

That was the theory, and we talked about it,

分かりました

we did a bunch of experiments,

そこで 我々はもう少し計算して

and then we said, let's really try to test it.

30～150億ドルの資金が

We spent the next two years doing research.

必要だと言いました

We talked to hundreds of experts in drug financing and venture capital.

以前の問題を一つ解決するのに

We talked to people who have developed drugs.

新たな問題が浮上したのです

We talked to pharmaceutical companies.

リスクの軽減はできましたが 新たに多額の資金が必要になりました

We actually looked at the data for drugs,

そのような資金を調達できるのは

over 2,000 drugs that had been approved or denied or withdrawn,

資本市場だけです

and we also ran millions of simulations.

ベンチャーキャピタルにも 慈善団体にもありません

And all that actually took a lot of time.

今までしなかった人達が 投資したくなるような

But when we were done, we found something that was sort of surprising.

投資家を集める方法を資本市場でー

It was feasible to structure that fund

見出さなければなりません

such that when you were done structuring it,

ここで再び 金融工学が役に立ちました

you could actually produce low-risk bonds that would be attractive to bond holders,

巨大ファンドが ゼロから始めて

that would give you yields of about five to eight percent,

いくらか借金したり

and you could produce equity

株を発行して

that would give equity holders about a 12 percent return.

キャッシュフローを 生み 出します

Now those returns aren't going to be attractive to a venture capitalist.

これは必要とする

They want to make those big bets

薬開発の大きな ポートフォリオを買うのに使われ

and get those billion dollar payoffs.

それらの薬は

But it turns out there are lots of other folks that would be interested.

承認プロセスを経て

That's right in the investment sweet spot of pension funds and 401(k) plans

承認の段階が進む度に

and all this other stuff.

価値が増えて行くのです

So we published some articles in the academic press,

ほとんどがダメになりますが

in medical journals, in finance journals.

成功するものもあり

But it wasn't until we actually got the popular press interested in this

価値を得たものは売れます

that we began to get some traction.

それを売ることによって

We wanted to do more than just make people aware of it.

債権に対する利子の支払いもでき

We wanted people to get involved.

次のテストに投資するお金も できるわけです

So we took all of our computer code and made that available online

ほとんど 自己資金ですね

under an open-source license to anybody that wanted it.

一連の取引通りにやって

And you guys can download it today

終わったら ポートフォリオを清算し

if you want to run your own experiments to see if this would work.

債権を回収し

And that was really effective,

株主に報酬を与えることができます

because people that didn't believe our assumptions

理屈はこうで 我々は少しばかり話し合い

could try their own and see how it would work.

たくさん実験を行い

Now there's an obvious problem, which is,

そして実際に 試してみようという事になり

is there enough money in the world to fund this?

それから２年間を研究に費やしました

I've told you there's enough drugs, but is there enough money?

多くの薬剤金融や ベンチャーキャピタルの

There's 100 trillion dollars of capital

専門家と話をして

currently invested in fixed-income securities.

薬剤開発者とも話し

That's a hundred thousand billion.

製薬会社にも話をしました

There's plenty of money.

2000以上の承認・非承認薬や

(Laughter)

脱落した薬剤のデータにも

But we realized it's more than just money that's required.

実際に目を通して

We had to get people motivated, involved,

何百万回もシミュレーションしました

and get them to understand this.

かなりの時間を費やしましたね

And we started thinking about all the different things that could go wrong.

その結果は ちょっと驚きでした

What are all the challenges that might get in the way?

実は 適した資金構造を

And we had a long list.

作るのは可能で

We assigned a bunch of people, including ourselves,

実際に 債権者にとって魅力的な リスクの低い

different pieces of this problem.

実際に 債権者にとって魅力的な リスクの低い

And we said, could you start a work stream on credit risk?

約５～８％の利回りの債券が作れるし

Could you start a work stream on the regulatory aspects?

約12％の利回りの

Could you start a work stream on how you would manage so many projects?

株式を発行することもできます

And we had all these experts get together and do these different work streams,

このくらいの利益では ベンチャーキャピリストには

and then we held a conference.

魅力的ではないですけどね

The conference was held over this past summer.

彼らは もっと大きな賭けで

It was an invitation-only conference.

何十億ドルのペイオフを求めています

It was sponsored by the American Cancer Society

でも こういう投資に興味がある人も たくさん居るのです

and done in collaboration with the National Cancer Institute.

年金基金や 401(K)プランなど

We had experts from every field we thought would be important,

いわゆる「スウィートスポット」に

including the government, and people that run research centers,