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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    翻訳: hiroko fujikawa 校正: Kana Tsumoto

  • Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion,

    こんにちは 今日は渋滞についてお話します

  • namely road congestion.


  • Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.


  • It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,


  • which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.


  • I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.


  • I mean, you have the typical European cities,


  • with a dense urban core, good public transportation

    街は中心に密集し 公共交通機関も充実しています

  • mostly, not a lot of road capacity.


  • But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.

    一方 アメリカの都市は違います

  • It's moving by itself, okay.


  • Anyway, the American cities:


  • lots of roads dispersed over large areas,


  • almost no public transportation.


  • And then you have the emerging world cities,

    さらに 新しい世界都市では

  • with a mixed variety of vehicles,


  • mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed

    土地の用途もバラバラで 広範囲に広がる一方

  • but often with a very dense urban core.


  • And traffic planners all around the world have tried

    世界中の交通計画に携わる人達は 様々な対策を試みました

  • lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,

    密集した都市 分散された都市

  • lots of roads or lots of public transport

    道路が数多くあるところ 公共交通機関が数多くあるところ

  • or lots of bike lanes or more information,

    自転車専用レーンが数多くあるところ 情報が溢れているところなどで

  • or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.

    様々な対策を試みましたが どれも上手くいかないようでした

  • But all of these attempts have one thing in common.

    しかしこれらすべての試みは ある点で共通しています

  • They're basically attempts at figuring out


  • what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.

    人々がどうすべきかを 解明しようとしていたのです

  • They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning


  • what other people should do, planning their life for them.


  • Now, planning a complex social system


  • is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.

    とても難しいことです ここで面白い話をご紹介しましょう

  • Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,

    ベルリンの壁が崩壊した 1989年に遡ります

  • an urban planner in London got a phone call

    ロンドンの都市計画者に モスクワの同僚から

  • from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,

    電話が掛かってきて こう訊かれました

  • "Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know,

    「やあ、ウラジミールだ 誰がロンドンの

  • who's in charge of London's bread supply?"


  • And the urban planner in London goes,


  • "What do you mean, who's in charge of London's —

    「誰がロンドンの担当者って どういう意味だい?

  • I mean, no one is in charge."


  • "Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.

    「でも確かに誰かが 担当しているはずなんだけど

  • I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this."

    とても複雑なシステムだから 誰かが管理しているに違いない」

  • "No. No. No one is in charge.

    「いや いや いや 誰も管理してないよ

  • I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.


  • It basically organizes itself."


  • It organizes itself.


  • That's an example of a complex social system


  • which has the ability of self-organizing,


  • and this is a very deep insight.


  • When you try to solve really complex social problems,

    本当に複雑な社会問題を 解決しようとするとき

  • the right thing to do is most of the time


  • to create the incentives.


  • You don't plan the details,


  • and people will figure out what to do,

    そして人々は 新しいフレームワークへ適合するために

  • how to adapt to this new framework.


  • And let's now look at how we can use this insight


  • to combat road congestion.

    どのようにこの洞察を利用出来るか 考えてみましょう

  • This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.

    これは私の故郷である ストックホルムの地図です

  • Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,

    ストックホルムは 約200万人在住の中都市です

  • but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water

    しかしストックホルムは 街の至る所に水があるので

  • means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --

    橋がたくさんあります 狭い橋 古い橋

  • which means lots of road congestion.

    それらが多くの交通渋滞を 起こしています

  • And these red dots show the most congested parts,

    これらの赤点は 最も渋滞している部分で

  • which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.


  • And then someone came up with the idea that,

    そこで誰かが こんなアイデアを思いつきました

  • apart from good public transport,


  • apart from spending money on roads,


  • let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.

    渋滞箇所を利用するドライバーに 1~2ユーロ請求する試みです

  • Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money,

    1ユーロや2ユーロは 駐車料金や維持費と比べれば

  • I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,


  • so you would probably expect that car drivers


  • wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.

    反応を示さないだろうと  皆さん思うでしょう

  • You would be wrong.


  • One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars

    たった1、2ユーロで ラッシュアワーの交通量から

  • disappear from rush hours.


  • Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think,

    さて20%は大きな違いだと 考えるかもしれませんが

  • but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?

    まだ80%残された 問題がありますよね

  • Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.


  • Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be

    それもまた誤りです  なぜなら車の流れは

  • a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that


  • once you reach above a certain capacity threshold

    つまり交通量が ある一定の量を超えると

  • then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.


  • But fortunately, it also works the other way around.

    しかし幸運なことに それは良い方にも働きます

  • If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion


  • will go down much faster than you might think.

    渋滞は予想以上に より早く解消するのです

  • Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm

    2006年1月3日渋滞料金が ストックホルムに導入されました

  • on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture


  • of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.

    1月2日のストックホルムの 典型的な道路の写真です

  • The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.


  • This is what happens when you take away


  • 20 percent of the cars from the streets.


  • You really reduce congestion quite substantially.


  • But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?

    しかし私が言った通り ドライバーは適応しますので

  • So after a while they would all come back because they

    しばらくすると ドライバーは渋滞料金に慣れて

  • have sort of gotten used to charges.


  • Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago


  • since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,


  • and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.

    依然として 少ない交通量のままです

  • But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series


  • in 2007.


  • Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,


  • they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced


  • in January and then abolished again at the end of July,


  • followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced

    住民投票の後 2007年に再び導入されました

  • again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.

    研究には 素晴らしいチャンスでした

  • I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,

    つまり そもそも実験してとても面白く

  • and we actually got to do it twice.


  • And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,

    個人的には 年に一度やりたいものですが

  • but they won't let me do that.


  • But it was fun anyway.


  • So, we followed up. What happened?

    そして研究を続けました どうなったでしょう?

  • This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,

    これは渋滞料金の最終日 7月31日の写真で

  • and you see the same street but now it's summer,


  • and summer in Stockholm is a very nice


  • and light time of the year,


  • and the first day without the congestion charges


  • looked like this.


  • All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire


  • the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.

    すぐに適応したドライバーは賞賛に値します 本当に早く適応しています

  • The first day they all came back.


  • And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.

    この影響は続き 2007年の数字はこうなりました

  • Now these traffic figures are really exciting


  • and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,

    予想外でもありましが 知識として役立つことでした

  • but I would say that the most surprising slide here


  • I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one.


  • This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,

    これはストックホルムの渋滞料金に対する 民衆の支持を表しています

  • and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced

    2006年初春 渋滞料金が導入されたとき

  • in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.


  • Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.


  • But what happened when the congestion charges


  • were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.

    渋滞料金に対する不満が 更に増えるという予想に反して

  • No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point

    むしろ逆に 70%もの人々が渋滞料金を

  • where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,


  • meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that:


  • 70 percent of the population in Stockholm


  • want to keep a price for something that used to be free.


  • Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?

    どうしてこうなったのでしょう? なぜでしょうか?

  • Well, think about it this way. Who changed?

    ではこう考えてください  誰が変わったのでしょう?

  • I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,


  • surely they must be discontent in a way.


  • And where did they go? If we can understand this,

    彼らはどこへ行ったのか? もしこれが理解できれば

  • then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.

    人々が交通制度に満足できる方法を 見出せるかもしれません

  • Well, so we did this huge interview survey


  • with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out

    調査インタビューを行い 誰が変わったのか

  • who changed, and where did they go?

    彼らはどこに行ったか 理解しようとしました

  • And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter)

    その結果彼ら自身も 理解してないことが分かりました(笑い)

  • For some reason, the car drivers are --

    何らかの理由で 運転手たちは

  • they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.

    以前していたのと同じように 車に乗っているという自信を持っていました

  • And why is that? It's because that travel patterns

    どうしてそう言えるのか? それは移動パターンは

  • are much less stable than you might think.

    皆さんが思っている以上 決まってないからです

  • Each day, people make new decisions, and people change

    人々は日々違った決断をし 考え方も変わります

  • and the world changes around them, and each day


  • all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly

    毎日これらのすべての思考に ほんの少しずつ押され

  • away from rush hour car driving

    そして気づかないうちに ラッシュアワーで運転しないよう

  • in a way that people don't even notice.


  • They're not even aware of this themselves.

    ドライバー自身 それに気が付いてないのです

  • And the other question, who changed their mind?

    もう一つの質問です 誰が彼らを変えたのでしょうか?

  • Who changed their opinion, and why?

    誰が彼等の考えを変えたのか どうして変えたのか?

  • So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out


  • why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?

    なぜ考えを変えたのか どんなことで考えを変えたのか?

  • And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that

    答えを分析した結果 ドライバーの半数以上が

  • more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.

    考えは何も変わっていないと思っていることが わかりました

  • They're actually confident that they have


  • liked congestion pricing all along.


  • Which means that we are now in a position

    つまりは 我々は

  • where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon

    この通行料金の課金によって 20%の交通量を減らし

  • with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,


  • and people aren't even aware that they have changed,


  • and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.

    素直にずっと渋滞料金を支持していた と信じているのです

  • This is the power of nudges when trying to solve

    これは複雑な社会問題を 解決しようとする時

  • complex social problems, and when you do that,

    利用できる力です その秘訣は

  • you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.


  • You should just nudge them in the right direction.

    ただ彼らを正しい方向へ そっと仕向ければ良いのです

  • And if you do it right,


  • people will actually embrace the change,


  • and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.

    更にその変化を 喜んでくれるかもしれません

  • Thank you. (Applause)

    ご静聴ありがとうござました (拍手)

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻訳: hiroko fujikawa 校正: Kana Tsumoto


動画の操作 ここで「動画」の調整と「字幕」の表示を設定することができます

B1 中級 日本語 TED 渋滞 料金 交通 ストックホルム ドライバー

TED】Jonas Eliasson: 交通渋滞の解消法 (ジョナス・エリアソン: 交通渋滞の解消法) (【TED】Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams (Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams))

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    Zenn に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日