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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    翻訳: 校正: Chiaki Takeuchi

  • Over the past six months, I've spent my time

    ここ半年、 色々な所を訪れました

  • traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles,


  • but without leaving my desk.


  • And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people.


  • I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here,


  • and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy

    もう一人は 緑のごつい体型の

  • avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.

    私の分身 「サイバー・フランク」

  • So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start,


  • if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff,

    さてテストから始めましょう ビジネス専門なので

  • so it's important that we focus on outcomes.


  • And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself,


  • "What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience.


  • It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?"


  • So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right.

    丁度良いレベルの話が できればいいのですが

  • So let's just walk our way through this.

    さあ 行ってみましょう

  • Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like.

    答えがわかったら 叫んでくださいね

  • The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer?


  • The answer is?


  • Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same.

    (聴衆)同じ (オーベン)同じ

  • No, they're not the same. (Laughter)


  • They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one.


  • So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school,

    なぜ同じと答えたのですか? 子供の頃学校で

  • about that big, they played the same trick on us?

    同じことを 聞かれましたよね?

  • It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember?


  • And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong.

    その時は「同じ」だった でも今回は違った

  • You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years:

    皆さんは一度習った答えを 何十年も覚えているわけです

  • The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are,

    「長さは同じ 長さは同じ」ってね

  • you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.

    だからそう答えた でも問題が変わってたんです

  • And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century.

    この21世紀でも同様のことが 起こっています

  • Somebody or something has changed the rules

    何者かがいつのまにか 世界のルールを変えたんです

  • about how our world works.

    何者かがいつのまにか 世界のルールを変えたんです

  • When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight,


  • you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay?

    皆が寝ていた頃です 15年も前の話ですが

  • You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is,

    気付かなかったって? でも事実です

  • they switched all the rules round, so that the way to


  • successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country,

    上手く回すための方法が まるっきり変わったんです

  • has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new

    上手く回すための方法が まるっきり変わったんです

  • you think I'm joking, don't youthere's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter)

    冗談だと思っていますね(笑) でも新しいルールに気付きましたか?

  • Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one.


  • You probablyNo, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)


  • My simple idea is that what's happened is,


  • the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us,

    21世紀は意外と 理解しにくかった

  • so instead we spend our time responding rationally

    だから馴染みのある昔からの 世界観で

  • to a world which we understand and recognize,

    皆 問題に対処しています

  • but which no longer exists.

    でも もう昔の世界じゃない

  • You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)

    まだ疑っていますね いいでしょう(拍手)

  • So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand.

    じゃあ 私の数々の疑問を 披露しましょう

  • If you search Amazon for the word "creativity,"

    アマゾンで「創造性」と検索すると 9万冊もの本がヒットします

  • you'll discover something like 90,000 books.

    アマゾンで「創造性」と検索すると 9万冊もの本がヒットします

  • If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity,"

    グーグルで 「革新+創造性」は

  • you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter)

    3000万件 +「コンサルタント」で6000万件です(笑)

  • Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover

    でも統計的に見て 発想から2年後に

  • is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money

    アイデアが収益や 実益に結びつく確率は

  • or delivering benefits two years after its inception.


  • It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives

    おかしいですよ 企業がお金と時間をかけて

  • spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets


  • which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.

    世に出る前から 時代遅れになります

  • How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have,

    なぜでしょう? 革新的なビジョンも

  • the visions of how we're going to change the world,


  • the key thing is implementation. We have the vision.

    鍵となるのです ビジョンは実現してこそです

  • We've got to make it happen.

    鍵となるのです ビジョンは実現してこそです

  • We've spent decades professionalizing implementation.

    私たちは長年 実現力を磨いてきました

  • People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen.

    その分 上手く行きそうなものです

  • However, if I use as an example a family of five

    でも上手くいっていない 家族旅行に例えてみましょう

  • going on holiday, if you can imagine this,


  • all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong,


  • what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses.


  • What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average


  • real project, average real successful project,


  • the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi,

    家族はインドネシアまでしか 行けません

  • at a cost of 4,000 pounds,


  • whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter)

    しかも子供2人は 置いてけぼり(笑)

  • What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.


  • It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one.


  • This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it.


  • It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty,

    「女王陛下 簡単にご説明しますと

  • the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity

    危機の深刻さが 予測できなかったのは

  • of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity

    創造性、聡明な頭脳の 不足が理由でした」

  • and the number of bright minds," or something like that.

    とかなんとか 書いてあります

  • This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England

    これは著名な経済学者たちが 英国女王に宛てた謝罪文です

  • when she asked the question,

    女王は学者に お聞きになりました

  • "Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter)

    「なぜ あなた方は 危機を予測できずにいたの?」

  • I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter)

    こんなもの真似をしていたら ナイトの称号はもらえないな(笑)

  • That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is,


  • these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people

    超優秀な経済学者でも 失敗する

  • on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)


  • It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO,

    デザイン・コンサルタント会社 IDEOのティム・ブラウンは

  • he explains that design must get big, and he's right.

    「デザインはもっと色々な 分野に広がるべきだ」

  • He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking

    より大きな問題に デザイン思考で 取り組むべきだと言います

  • must tackle big systems for the challenges we have.

    より大きな問題に デザイン思考で 取り組むべきだと言います

  • He's absolutely right.


  • And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?"

    では何故今までの思考は 小さかったのか?

  • Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool,

    コラボレーションは素晴らしい 部門間協力は素晴らしい

  • is cross-functional working is so amazing,

    コラボレーションは素晴らしい 部門間協力は素晴らしい

  • why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on?

    では何故ヒエラルキー制が 残ってるんでしょう

  • You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that

    きっと私たちは冒頭に 述べたような

  • we've not noticed that change I described earlier.


  • What we do know is that the world has accelerated.


  • Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light.

    インターネットが 全てを光速で動かし

  • Technology accelerates things exponentially.

    技術が物事を 急激に加速させる

  • So if this is now, and that's the past,

    現在はここ こちらが過去

  • and we start thinking about change, you know,

    そして皆さんも政府も みんなが変化を求めている

  • all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change,

    そして皆さんも政府も みんなが変化を求めている

  • everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter)

    みんな変化を望んでいる すごいね!(笑)

  • So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change.

    その結果 世界は 急速に加速し変化していきます

  • The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing.


  • At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird.


  • We've doubled the population in 40 years,

    まず人口が 40年で2倍になりました

  • put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact.

    その半分が都市に住み 互いに繋がっています

  • The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing.

    情報交流の密度は 驚くばかりです

  • There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing.

    情報交通を示す図の密度の濃さと 言ったら驚きです

  • And then we've done a third thing.


  • you know, for those of you who have as an office


  • a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs,

    小さなデスクだったとしても インターネットがあれば

  • no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet.

    そこはグローバル企業の 本社なのです

  • What's happened is, we've changed the scale.


  • Size and scale are no longer the same.


  • And then add to that, every time you tweet,


  • over a third of your followers follow from a country


  • which is not your own.


  • Global is the new scale. We know that.


  • And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that?

    「激動の時代」とかなんとか 言われるわけです

  • And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?

    比喩のように使われていますよね? でも実際に

  • And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor.


  • It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember


  • going to a demonstration where they basically,

    講義で非常に面白い 実験デモが行われました

  • the demonstrator did something quite intriguing.

    講義で非常に面白い 実験デモが行われました

  • What he did was, he got a transparent pipehave you seen this demonstration before? —


  • he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was,


  • you had a situation where — I'll try and draw the tap


  • and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard.

    蛇口は描けないから 「蛇口」でいいね?(笑)

  • Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter)

    蛇口は描けないから 「蛇口」でいいね?(笑)

  • Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on.

    蛇口を開けるとパイプに 水が流れ始めます

  • And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe.

    彼は言うわけです 「何か気付いたかい?」

  • I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me?


  • So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great.

    水が貯まったところで 水量を減らしました

  • And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe,

    「何か気付いたかい?」 答えはノーです すると彼は針をパイプに突き刺して

  • and he connects this to a container, and he fills

    「何か気付いたかい?」 答えはノーです すると彼は針をパイプに突き刺して

  • the container up with green ink. You with me?

    針から緑のインクを 少しずつ垂らし始めました

  • So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out

    すると 緑の細い線が 流れ始めました

  • as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting.


  • And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes.

    水の量を少し増やしても 何の変化もありません

  • So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line.

    流水量が変わっても 緑の線はそのままです

  • He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens.

    彼はどんどん蛇口を 緩めていきました

  • There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more,

    すると突然 緑の線がユラッと動き

  • the whole of that green line disappears, and instead

    蛇口をかすかに緩めると 線が一瞬にして消え

  • there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle.


  • They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink


  • so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.

    色が薄くなって 最後には緑が消えました

  • What's happened in this world of pipe


  • is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent.

    ルールの変化です 誰かが流れを乱した結果

  • All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly,

    元のルールは 全て一瞬にして消え

  • all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available,

    乱流による あらゆる可能性が生まれました

  • and it's not the same as laminar.


  • And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.

    でも緑のインクがなければ 変化には気付けません

  • And I think this is our challenge, because somebody


  • has actually increasedand it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff

    私たちの世界でも 技術の進歩でスピードやスケール

  • the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.

    繋がりの密度が 増したからです

  • Now how do we cope and deal with that?

    この変化にどう対応すれば いいんでしょう?

  • Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn.

    「激動」と名前をつけても良し 挑戦して学ぶも良しです

  • Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when

    ただ私たちが 今まで育ってきたのは

  • there were actually these things called correct answers,


  • because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle,

    最初のクイズの 解答のように

  • and you believe it will last forever.

    それが永遠に続くと 信じてきました

  • So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning,


  • and that's how we used to do it. We could see things,

    今までの私たちは ものを見て 理解し その後じっくり実行してきました

  • understand them, take the time to put them into practice.

    今までの私たちは ものを見て 理解し その後じっくり実行してきました

  • Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace

    この部分を私たちの 住む世界とします

  • of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work

    世界が加速的に変わりましたが 学習のペースはどうでしょう

  • for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work

    会社で働いていると 上司の意向に沿わない

  • on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy,

    計画外のことなど できません

  • and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings.


  • If you work in an institution, one day you will get them to make that decision.

    いつか上司を説得することが できるかもしれません

  • And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles,

    でも好不調の波がある 市場だったら

  • it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way


  • for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me?

    かなり状況が悪くなるまで 何かがおかしいと気づきません

  • So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat.

    つまり学習のペースは この平らな線 とても遅くなります

  • You with me? This point over here, the point at which

    そして2つの線が 交差するポイントで

  • the lines cross over, the pace of change

    そして2つの線が 交差するポイントで

  • overtakes the pace of learning,


  • and for me, that is what I was describing


  • when I was telling you about midnight.

    私は「真夜中」と 呼んでいるのです

  • So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do,

    それがどう私たちに 関係するのでしょうか?

  • many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems

    私たちのなすべきことは すっかり変わったのです

  • without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it,

    未来のことを考えずに 今の問題を解決しても仕方ありません

  • the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future?

    未来のことを考えずに 今の問題を解決しても仕方ありません

  • If you haven't understood the world you're living in,

    この世界を正しく 理解しなければ

  • it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.

    やる事が将来役に立つかなんて 確信が持てません

  • I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas,


  • I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation,

    私に相談に来る 会社のトップは 革新を求めています

  • so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!"

    部下に言うわけです 「リスクを取れ 創造しろ!」

  • But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air.

    でも不幸なことに 部下には違って聞こえるんです

  • Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because

    「変なことをしてみろ クビだぞ」ってね(笑)

  • Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world,

    なぜでしょう? なぜなら古い世界では

  • over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable.


  • If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated?


  • Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience.

    経験者の知恵を借りるのが 善だったのです

  • So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20, 30 years, are you with me?

    そしてその教えを 20年30年と大事に守ってきた

  • The answer is, don't do things which are different.


  • And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work.

    突然 命令を変えても 上手く行きません

  • You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world.

    新しい世界では 2パターンの失敗がありえます

  • One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing,

    その一 やり方が 決まっているものの場合

  • you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired.

    いい加減にやって 失敗したら? 結果はクビです

  • On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before,

    その二 全く新しいことに挑戦して

  • you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated?

    失敗した その場合は?

  • Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed.

    ピザでお祝いです! 成功者より評価されるべきです

  • It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.

    これは「賢い失敗」です 成功と違い 履歴書には書けませんから

  • So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation


  • of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk.

    9万キロに及ぶ旅をしたか お話します

  • When I realized the power of this new world,


  • I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school,

    安定した教職を辞め ネット上世界初の

  • the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen,


  • and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself.

    どうすれば 新しいことができるか 他の人にも教えています

  • If you're interested,, you'll find out more,

    興味があれば worldaftermidnight.comへどうぞ

  • but I've applied them to myself for over a decade,

    私自身 この新しいやり方で ここ十年やってきました

  • and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is,

    ご覧の通り 健在です 家も まだきちんとあります

  • I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives,

    今日は 皆さんの人生に 緑のインクを 少しでも注入できた事を願っています

  • so that when you go away and you're making your next

    今度重要な決断を下すときに 考えてみてください

  • absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think,

    今度重要な決断を下すときに 考えてみてください

  • "Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense

    「 真夜中過ぎ」の 新しい世界でも

  • in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much.

    やろうとしている事の 意味があるのかどうか

  • (Applause)


  • Thank you, thank you. (Applause)


Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻訳: 校正: Chiaki Takeuchi


動画の操作 ここで「動画」の調整と「字幕」の表示を設定することができます

A2 初級 日本語 TED 世界 パイプ ルール 変化 加速

TED】Eddie Obeng: Smart Failure for the fast-changing world (エディ・オーベン: Smart failure for the fast-changing world) (【TED】Eddie Obeng: Smart failure for a fast-changing world (Eddie Obeng: Smart failure for a fast-changing world))

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    Zenn に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日