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  • welcome to this video on how to use parabolic SAR strategy effectively and

  • this is an indicator that a lot of people really like and in its concept it's one

  • of the most simple and easy to follow parabolic SAR indicator so I can see why people would

  • like it so much and basically this indicator was created

  • well first of all SAR stands for stop and reverse and some people consider it

  • a trend following indicator and it can be used for that and so what we're

  • looking for here is this where you've got these dots see these dots overhead

  • here and as long as those dots are above price then we're short I'm going to

  • simplify things here maybe over simplified then when the dots go below

  • price levels then we go along with a bullish signal and the other thing

  • that's kind of nice about this is that so creates a that's where the quality a

  • trend-following indicator is that the parabolic SAR strategy is to go short

  • when dots are above it and long when dots are the low price and then it also

  • serves as a trailing stop so you just follow this long as long as the price

  • where as long as the dots stay below the candlesticks then you stay long and then

  • when it gets above now see here this of course is nothing's perfect and

  • everything has you know two little parameters whatever perfect parameters

  • you think you're going to come up with will never be perfect for every

  • situation so here we get one that goes above and comes back down below within

  • one bar so that would have stop and reverse you out and of course you

  • wouldn't want to really be stopped and reversed out that's one of my issues

  • with the indicator is I don't like the term stop and reverse because it implies

  • that trends that go up and then they go down and that's not typically how trends

  • actually go so to stop in Reverse means that you stop out of your long trade and

  • you go short the the downtrend that there'll be a trend following but really

  • what seems happened most of the time in markets and of course things change all

  • the time but more often we get enough trend and then the market can go

  • sideways for a little while and so this is why trend reversal trades usually

  • have a worse than 50/50 win-loss ratio never to go sideways for a while may say

  • okay well then it's gonna go short not necessarily sometimes it'll continue

  • into an uptrend so I don't like this whole concept of SAR stop and reverse

  • and calling it that so sorry to the classic technical analysis fanatics but

  • that's my personal opinion feel free to disagree with me it's a

  • free country free world whatever well the world's not free unfortunately but

  • anyway you've my permission to disagree with me type your comments in the

  • comments below if you do and I'm a big boy I can deal with that so then let's

  • take this off of here and see what happens so and you can see now the we

  • run into some problems let me just narrow this down a little

  • bit change our scaling so we had the the first example I showed you looked pretty

  • good right so it kept us into that trend here let me go back there old first a

  • little bit and just show you that again so here that would have worked out real

  • nice so just like most trend trading techniques they all look great and a lot

  • of indicators look fantastic as long as you're in a trend and those are the kind

  • of examples that they'll put in their text books and their videos and all that

  • kind of stuff and that's beautiful except for one

  • problem the market don't trend most of the time so I don't

  • know what the exact steps are anymore they vary I've heard well 30%

  • I think that's aggressive I've heard 20% now lately I've heard markets only

  • turned about 15% I do believe that the markets are trending less and less

  • frequently and by the way when this indicator was created it was actually

  • before of the time of the computer age so let's also be clear about that and

  • the computer age when the computer age came in then Marcus started trading very

  • differently price patterns changed differently or started forming

  • differently so if you trade methodologies based techniques that were

  • developed before modern computer technology entered the markets you've

  • got a prop you got a big problem you've got a big big problem it's not gonna

  • work for you so anyway so what we have to have happened here is what is typical

  • so alrighty so I showed this one a little dot here and then it goes back

  • down so now we're supposed to be in it uptrend and then the dots go back above

  • price bars and we're supposed to be in a downtrend but market didn't really go

  • down did it so then the price comes below the price bar so when we're

  • supposed to go up well doesn't go up much and then the bar

  • the indicator goes above the bars and so now we're supposed to go down and then

  • the bars go below and we're supposed to go up and then they go above I was

  • supposed to go down but the market actually ends up going up

  • well the parabolic SAR is above it so this is the problem you get this kind of

  • stuff happening when you're in a non trending market and by the way the

  • definition of trend is not direction the definition of trend is not higher highs

  • and higher lows anybody's told you that those are wrong definitions and they

  • will mess up your trading because trend is defined by Webster's dictionary

  • Webster's dictionary is the extended direction of well anything so extended

  • general direction means a long-term move these are short-term moves and therefore

  • none of these are trend and that's why I personally and her ethically do not

  • consider the parabolic SAR to be a trend indicator does not indicate long-term

  • moves as demonstrated here and you will see this you might say well that's just

  • one example fine pull up your own charts and you're gonna see plenty of examples

  • like this so in my mind it is not a trend indicator at all can it be a

  • decent trailing stop at times in trailing in training markets yes yes it

  • can be okay I still don't prefer it as a trailing stop why because for example it

  • starts too far away from the market so here is our first signal on that bar

  • right there and look how far away it is sure it tightens up but may protect my

  • initial protective stop it's too far away I don't want it to be that far away

  • initially so anyway it can be used though but the point is it can't be used

  • alone in fact no indicator and I'm not trashing the parabolic SAR so let's be

  • very clear about that because I will say this about any indicator no one

  • indicator will make you money now this one now stochastic snot MACD not RSI and

  • not CCI not LMNOP whatever acronym you want to put to it no indicator makes you

  • money there indicators and so it's an indicator well the the answers and the

  • question they indicate what they don't do is make you money directly otherwise

  • we would call them moneymakers so cannot still be used can it be helpful in your

  • trading and the answers yes it can be helpful as part of a complete trading

  • methodology so as I've implied here it can work pretty darn well and those

  • we've actually seen it can work pretty good for

  • a trailing stop especially after the market starts moving a bit I don't like

  • its initial potato stop there's the market starts moving a bit yes it can be

  • a pretty decent trailing stop but only in trending market and it does not

  • define the trending market so therefore one of the things that we will have to

  • add to it is a trend indicator of some sort so you can use whatever your

  • favorite trend indicator is but what the heck let's for today's purposes we'll

  • just use the ADX all right so let's pull up the ADX so now I've added the 14

  • period ADX to my charts here and a ninja trader they call it DM that actually

  • adds DM + + D - I'm not a 10 emails here I just want to keep things very simple

  • for you today and I put it at a threshold of 20 so this black horizontal

  • line here is set at 20 so basically when a DX gets above 20 then it's considered

  • a strong trend so now we're adding the two together

  • alright so we're not gonna depend on parabolic SAR for a trend will depend on

  • a DX in this example for it and here is the spot where it goes above now you'll

  • notice that it doesn't normally nail specific swing highs and swing lows and

  • once in a while it will but periodically or typically it won't most trend

  • indicators are by definition lagging indicators and there's a reason for that

  • the definition of trend is the extended general direction of the market

  • therefore you can't have a trend indicated until there's enough data to

  • establish that you're in an extended general direction and therefore it is

  • lagging mathematically but if you get into a trend like this so then it is and

  • by the way all the parameters oh you can't even see them sorry about that so

  • I know people will ask me about the is a parabolic SAR so there they are up

  • at there at the top left corner and I'll actually bring those up because I always

  • get this question so sure let's do it so parabolic scr there is the input that

  • i'm using for that and for the ad actually can see a DX here i've got

  • positive di o- d i blacked out i don't want to see those right now but it's a

  • period of 14 right and you can experiment with different periods you

  • can experiment with different threshold lines i've got it at 20 different people

  • use different periods that's fine there's no magic period but anyway so

  • what we do here is we say okay so now we've got a trend established and this

  • point and we'll use this as our trailing stop our parabolic SAR as our trailing

  • stop not gonna use it as a stop and reverse necessarily but and so there we

  • go now what you'll also notice is that the

  • ad ax starts coming down here and that's also kind of a little signal that okay

  • maybe we have put in a high and so this whole situation here where parabolic SAR

  • went above the bars then below bar at the bars down above the bar is real

  • quick you also see a confirmation of that here on the ad X where it's

  • diverging and starting to come down so and it just it comes down down down now

  • don't think this the one thing I don't like about the ad X is that it doesn't

  • indicate a trend after you got to the top coming back down you've gotta wait

  • for it to reset below the threshold line in this case 20 so this does not

  • indicate a downtrend just because it's coming down and therefore you've got to

  • wait this period all this period the indicators really not telling you

  • anything other than maybe might be indicating that okay it's good to get

  • out of your long trade but know you've got to wait for it to reset

  • before you get another trade signal a lot of time can go by as you see this is

  • a daily chart and you know couple months go by so and then by the way just to

  • show you what we showed before so all of this noise is here let we looked at if

  • you look at that noise and you say wait a minute gave us a long signal here a

  • short signal here long stood only here short signal here a long statement short

  • signal that whole time ADX was first of all declining back down

  • to the zero line and then it stayed below the zero line indicating that

  • there's no trend therefore we don't want to use the parabolic SAR in that

  • situation so this is where you combine different types of indicators for

  • different purposes in order to develop a successful trading methodology so if you

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welcome to this video on how to use parabolic SAR strategy effectively and

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A2 初級

パラボリックSARの効果的な使い方 (How to use Parabolic SAR strategy Effectively)

  • 20 1
    潘宗侑 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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