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  • Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth

    翻訳: Tsukina Shiroshita 校正: RINAKO UENISHI

  • has evaporated over the course of the last two years.


  • We've questioned the future of capitalism.


  • We've questioned the financial industry.


  • We've looked at our government oversight.


  • We've questioned where we're going.


  • And yet, at the same time,


  • this very well may be a seminal moment in American history,

    しかし まさに 今こそが

  • an opportunity for the consumer to actually take control and guide us

    アメリカの歴史が 大きく変わる時であり

  • to a new trajectory in America.


  • I'm calling this The Great Unwind.


  • (Laughter)


  • And the idea is a simple, simple idea,

    私はこれを 「グレート アンワインド」 と呼んでいます

  • which is the fact that the consumer has moved from a state of anxiety


  • to action.

    消費者は 不安がるだけではなく

  • Consumers who represent 72 percent of the GDP of America

    自らが行動しよう という考えです

  • have actually started, just like banks and just like businesses,


  • to de-leverage, to unwind their leverage in daily life,


  • to remove themselves from the liability and risk

    日常生活において レバレッジの“不”実践

  • that presents itself as they move forward.


  • So, to understand this -- and I'm going to stress this --


  • it's not about the consumer being in retreat.


  • The consumer is empowered.

    日常から 減らしているのです

  • To understand this, we'll step back and look at what's happened

    しかし 強調しておきたいのは

  • over the last year and a half.

    今日お話するのは 消費者が弱気だ という話ではなく

  • So if you've been gone, this is the CliffsNotes

    主導権を握っている話だ ということです

  • on what's happened in the economy.


  • (Laughter)


  • Unemployment up. Housing values down. Equity markets down.

    おっとご安心を 経済の動向についての

  • Commodity prices are like this.

    おなじみの入門書を 引用しましたから

  • If you're a mom trying to manage a budget,


  • and oil was 150 dollars a barrel last summer,

    失業率は上昇 住宅価格と株価は下落

  • and it's somewhere between 50 and 70,


  • do you plan vacations?


  • How do you buy?


  • What's your strategy in your household? Will the bailout work?


  • We have national debt, Detroit, currency valuations, health care --

    どう休暇の予定を立て 物を購入しますか?

  • all these issues facing us.


  • You put them all together, mix them up in a bouillabaisse,


  • and you have consumer confidence that's basically a ticking time bomb.

    為替・保険の問題があるのに 救済策は機能するでしょうか

  • In fact, let's go back and look at what caused this crisis,

    ブイヤベースみたいに 一緒くたにしても

  • because the consumer, all of us, in our daily lives,

    市民からの信頼は 一瞬しか得られません

  • actually contributed a large part to the problem.

    さて 金融危機を引き起こした原因の大部分は

  • This is something I call the 50-20 paradox.

    消費者の 私たち全員の

  • It took us 50 years

    日常生活にあった事を 確認しましょう

  • to reach annual savings ratings of almost 10 percent.


  • Fifty years.


  • Do you know what this was right here? This was World War II.


  • Do you know why savings was so high?

    ようやく 約10%に到達します 50年ですよ

  • There was nothing to buy, unless you wanted to buy some rivets.


  • What happened, though, over the course of the last 20 years,

    WWⅡの間 貯蓄率が 非常に高い理由は

  • we went from a 10 percent savings rate to a negative savings rate.

    金属鋲しか 買う物がなかったからです

  • Because we binged.

    一方 最近20年の貯蓄率ですが

  • We bought extra-large cars, supersized everything,

    10%から下落し マイナスになりました

  • we bought remedies for restless leg syndrome.

    これは 消費ブームが原因です

  • All these things together basically created a factor

    私たちが買った 特大サイズの車やバカでかいもの

  • where the consumer drove us headlong into the crisis


  • that we face today.

    今 私たちが直面している危機に

  • The personal debt-to-income ratio basically went from 65 to 135 percent


  • in the span of about 15 years.

    約15年で レバレッジの掛けすぎにより

  • So consumers got over-leveraged.


  • And of course our banks did as well, as did our federal government.


  • This is an absolutely staggering chart.

    消費者は 無理な借金をしていたのです

  • It shows leverage, trended out from 1919 to 2009.

    銀行も 政府同様 素晴らしかった ただし悪い意味で

  • And what you end up seeing is the whole phenomenon

    預託機関 借入額の表では

  • that we are actually stepping forth and basically leveraging

    1919年から2009年の レバレッジに関する

  • future education, future children in our households.

    驚くべき現状を 目の当たりに出来ます

  • So if you look at this in the context of visualizing the bailout,


  • what you can see is, if you stack up dollar bills,

    最終的に 子供達の未来を

  • first of all, 360,000 dollars


  • is about the size of a five-foot-four guy.


  • But if you stack it up, you see this amazing, staggering amount of dollars


  • that have been put into the system to fund and bail us out.


  • So this is the first 315 billion.

    163cmの 低めの男性ぐらいになります

  • But I read this fact the other day,

    ですが 救済のため システムにつぎ込んだ

  • that one trillion seconds equals 32,000 years.


  • So if you think about that,

    積み重ねると 右下のように

  • the context, the casualness with which we talk about


  • trillion-dollar bailout here and trillion there,


  • we are stacking ourselves up for long-term leverage.


  • However, consumers have moved.


  • They are taking responsibility.

    1兆秒は 3万2千年にもなるんですよ

  • What we're seeing is an uptake in the savings rate.

    我々は そんな額の長期レバレッジを積んでいるのです

  • In fact, 11 straight months of savings have happened

    しかし 消費者は

  • since the beginning of the crisis.


  • We're working our way back up to that 10 percent.


  • Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter,


  • spending dropped to its lowest level in 62 years --

    10%に戻そう という働きかけのおかげで

  • almost a 3.7 percent decline.

    11か月連続で 上昇しています

  • Visa now reports that more people are using debit cards than credit cards.

    また 第4半期では

  • So we're starting to pay for things with money that we have.


  • And we're starting to be much more careful about how we save and invest.


  • But that's not really the whole story,


  • because this has also been a dramatic time of transformation.

    クレジットカードより デビットカード払いが多い事実は

  • And you've got to admit, over the last year and a half,

    人々が 所持金で支払うようになった事を 示唆します

  • consumers have been doing some weird things.

    そして 貯蓄と投資にも

  • It's pretty staggering, what we've lived through.


  • If you take into account that 80 percent of all Americans

    しかし これだけでは終わりません

  • were born after World War II,

    今は 激動の時でもあるのですから

  • this was essentially our Depression.

    さて 消費者が この1年半

  • And so, as a result, some crazy things have happened.


  • I'll give you some examples.

    我々は 危機を乗り越えられました

  • Let's talk about dentists, vasectomies, guns and shark attacks.


  • (Laughter)


  • Dentists report molars -- people grinding their teeth,

    今の不況は 自分たちのせいと言えます

  • coming in and reporting that they've had stress.

    その結果 おかしな事が起きています

  • So there's an increase in people having to have their fillings replaced.

    ここでは 歯科医や

  • Gun sales, according to the FBI, who does background checks,

    精管カット 銃 サメの例を使ってみましょう

  • are up almost 25 percent since January.


  • Vasectomies are up 48 percent, according to the Cornell Institute.


  • And lastly, but a very good point,


  • hopefully not related to the former point I just made,


  • which is that shark attacks are at their lowest level from 2003.

    奥歯の詰め物を 変えざるを得ない人が 増えているそうです

  • Does anybody know why?

    FBIいわく 銃の販売では

  • (Laughter)

    身元調査が 1月以降 25%増えました

  • No one's at the beach.

    精管カットは 48%増えているとの報告が

  • So there's a bright side to everything.


  • But seriously, what we see happening,


  • and the reason I want to stress that the consumer is not in retreat,

    精管カットと 関係ないと良いのですが―

  • is that this is a tremendous opportunity

    サメの襲来が 2003年以降で最小回数

  • for the consumer who drove us into this recession

    なぜだか わかりますか?

  • to lead us right back out.

    海岸に人がいないからです 何にでも良い点がありますね

  • What I mean by that is we can move from mindless consumption


  • to mindful consumption.

    消費者は弱腰でない と強調する理由は

  • Right?


  • (Applause)

    不況からの脱出を 先導してくれる

  • If you think about the last three decades,


  • the consumer has moved from savvy about marketing in the '90s,

    つまり 軽薄な消費から

  • to gathering all these amazing social and search tools in this decade.

    賢明な消費が できるようになっている という事です

  • But the one thing holding them back is the ability to discriminate.


  • By restricting their demand,

    この10年 消費者は 社会的な検索ツールによって

  • consumers can actually align their values with their spending,

    90年代の販売戦略から 逃れましたが

  • and drive capitalism and business to not just be about more,

    欲求の識別能力だけは 進歩が遅れたままでした

  • but to be about better.

    消費者が 需要を制限すれば

  • We're going to explain that right now.

    消費の価値観を 変えられます

  • Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,

    資本主義や 企業がする活動を

  • proprietary tool of VML and Young & Rubicam,

    「量」から「質」重視に 変えられます

  • we set out to understand what's been happening in the crisis

    この事を 説明していきましょう

  • with the consumer marketplace.


  • We found a couple of really interesting things.


  • We're going to go through four value shifts

    危機の際 消費者市場では

  • that we see driving new consumer behaviors,


  • that offer new management principles.


  • The first cultural value shift we see


  • is this tendency toward something we call "liquid life."

    消費者は 態度を改め

  • This is the movement

    企業は 新たなマネジメント原則を採用しました

  • from Americans defining their success on having things

    一つ目の 文化的な価値観の変化は

  • to having liquidity,

    流動的な生活の 傾向です

  • because the less excess that you have around you,

    アメリカ人は 成功を 物を持つ事でなく

  • the more nimble and fleet of foot you are.

    流動性がある事と 定義するようになりました

  • As a result, déclassé consumption is in.


  • classé consumption is the whole idea that spending money frivolously


  • makes you look a little bit anti-fashion.

    結果 消費は衰退していきます

  • The management principle is dollars and cents.

    つまらない物に お金を費やすことが

  • So let's look at some examples of thisclassé consumption


  • that falls out of this value.

    マネジメント原則は お金なのです

  • The first thing is, something must be happening

    さて この価値に基づく

  • when P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling.

    消費の衰退例を 見てみましょう

  • (Laughter)

    まず ラッパーのP.ディディの

  • But seriously, we also have this phenomenon


  • on Madison Avenue and in other places,


  • where people are actually walking out of luxury boutiques

    いやいや これは 高級ブランド店が並ぶ

  • with ordinary, generic paper bags to hide the brand purchases.


  • We see high-end haggling in fashion today,

    消費者は 買った高級ブランド品を

  • high-end haggling for luxury and real estate.


  • We also see just a relaxing of ego,


  • and sort of a dismantling of artifice.

    高級品や 土地のようなものですら

  • This is a story on the yacht club that's all basically blue collar.

    値切りが 流行しています

  • Blue-collar yacht club -- where you can join,

    エゴや 狡賢さを 減らす例も

  • but you've got to work in the boatyard as condition of membership.