字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント Ezra Klein: why don't you describe for me as vividly as you can what it is you're worried about. what it is nightmare scenario looks like? Bill Gates: Fortunately, there's very few things and most of them are very low probability some big volcanic explosion A giant earthquake, asteroid At least in the nuclear case you gotta say we take it quite seriously. We budget a lot of money, have a lot of people who think about nuclear deterrence, I'm very glad that works being done and I rate the chance of a nuclear war in my lifetime has being fairly low. I rate the chance of a widespread epidemic far worse than Ebola in my lifetime as well over 50 percent. If we look at the 20th Century, and we look at the death chart of the 20th Century, I think everybody would say oh yeah there must be a spike from World War I and you know sure enough there it is like 25 million and I must be a big spike for World War II, and there it is – like 65 million but then you'll see this other spike that is as large as World War II, right after World War I – and most people, a lot of people say what? Wait a minute – what was that? There's two kinds of flus: There's flus that spread between humans very effectively and there's flus that kill lots of people. And those two properties have only been combined I into a widespread flu once in history. That is Spanish Flu. We have no idea where it came from – it's called the Spanish flu because the Spanish press was the freest, they were the first to talk openly about it. and so in the annals of epidemic history that's the big event. I funded a disease modeling group that uses computer simulation and that work has been phenomenal in helping us target our polio eradication resources – which parts of nigeria should we work harder on? And it's very natural if you have a group like that to say hey look at something like the Spanish flu in the modern day. Health systems are far better and so you'd think, hey that wouldn't be very bad. Well, we tried it – and there are some assumptions we had to make – but what we showed is that the force of infection, because modern transport which be compared to 1918 is over fifty times as great, if you get something like the [Spanish] flu and you look at that map of how within days it's basically in all urban centers of the entire globe That is very, uh, eye-opening. that didn't happen with Spanish flu in the past. The opportunity in did do more than just let it run its course is really only in the last decade basically when you talk about drugs, you can talk about small molecules or you can talk about these complex biological protein like things which is a subclass called antibodies antibodies are the molecules the immune system naturally builds to attack disease Today, the idea that somebody says oh here's an antibody make a lot of it made it very quickly that's right on the cutting edge. and the Ebola epidemic showed me that we're not ready for a serious epidemic. An epidemic that would be more infectious and would spread faster than Ebola did. This is the greatest risk have a huge tragedy. This is the most likely thing by far to kill over 10 million excess people in a year. We don't need to invest nearly what we do in military preparedness. this is something where less than a billion a year on R&D, medical surveillance, on standby personnel, cross-training the military so they can play a role in terms of all the logistics here. This can be done and we may not get many more warnings like this one to to say okay it's a pretty modest investment to avoid something that, really, in terms of the human condition would be a gigantic setback.