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  • Ezra Klein: why don't you describe for me as vividly as you can

  • what it is you're worried about. what it is nightmare scenario looks like?

  • Bill Gates: Fortunately, there's very few things and most of them are very low

  • probability

  • some big volcanic explosion

  • A giant earthquake, asteroid

  • At least in the nuclear case

  • you gotta say we take it quite seriously. We budget a lot of money, have a lot of

  • people who think about nuclear deterrence,

  • I'm very glad that works being done and

  • I rate the chance of a nuclear war in my lifetime has being fairly low.

  • I rate the chance of a widespread epidemic far worse than Ebola

  • in my lifetime as well over 50 percent.

  • If we look at the 20th Century, and we look at the death chart

  • of the 20th Century, I think everybody would say oh yeah there must be a spike

  • from World War I

  • and you know sure enough there it is like 25 million

  • and I must be a big spike for World War II, and there it is – like 65 million

  • but then you'll see this other spike that

  • is as large as World War II, right after World War I – and most people, a lot

  • of people say what? Wait a minute – what was that?

  • There's two kinds of flus:

  • There's flus that spread between humans very effectively

  • and there's flus that kill lots of people. And those two properties have

  • only been combined

  • I into a widespread flu

  • once in history. That is Spanish Flu.

  • We have no idea where it came fromit's called the Spanish flu

  • because the Spanish press was the freest,

  • they were the first to talk openly about it.

  • and so in the annals of epidemic history that's the big event.

  • I funded a disease modeling group that uses computer simulation

  • and that work has been phenomenal in helping us

  • target our polio eradication resourceswhich parts of nigeria should we

  • work harder on? And it's very natural if you have a group like that to say hey

  • look at something like the Spanish flu in the modern day.

  • Health systems are far better and so you'd think, hey that wouldn't be very bad.

  • Well, we tried itand there are some assumptions we had to makebut what we showed is that the

  • force of infection, because modern transport

  • which be compared to 1918 is over fifty times as great,

  • if you get something like the [Spanish] flu and you look at that map

  • of how within days it's basically

  • in all urban centers of the entire globe

  • That is very, uh, eye-opening.

  • that didn't happen with Spanish flu in the past.

  • The opportunity in did do more than just

  • let it run its course is really only in the last decade

  • basically when you talk about drugs, you can talk about small molecules or you can talk about

  • these

  • complex biological protein like things which is a subclass called antibodies

  • antibodies are the molecules the immune system naturally builds to attack disease

  • Today, the idea that somebody says oh here's an antibody

  • make a lot of it made it very quickly that's right on the cutting edge.

  • and the Ebola epidemic showed me that we're not ready

  • for a serious epidemic. An epidemic that would be more infectious and would spread faster

  • than Ebola did. This is the greatest risk

  • have a huge tragedy. This is the most likely thing by far

  • to kill over 10 million excess people

  • in a year. We don't need to invest nearly what we do

  • in military preparedness. this is something where

  • less than a billion a year on R&D, medical surveillance,

  • on standby personnel, cross-training the military so they can play a role in

  • terms of all the logistics here. This can be done

  • and we may not get many more warnings like this one

  • to to say okay it's a pretty modest investment

  • to avoid something that, really, in terms of the human condition would be a

  • gigantic setback.

Ezra Klein: why don't you describe for me as vividly as you can

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B1 中級

ビル・ゲイツが恐れていること (What Bill Gates is afraid of)

  • 151 7
    陳冠宇 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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