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  • Way back in October, 1983, a young Hong Kong broker was working one Saturday

  • when his boss rushed through, yelling at everyone to buy Hong Kong dollars.

  • Within hours, the authorities pegged the currency to the US dollar

  • at a tiny profit for those local currency holders.

  • Then and since, Hong Kong dollars weakness has typically been related to fears about its relations with China.

  • But now the currency is nearing its weakest point in a decade,

  • and for once, the city's future is not the reason.

  • The Hong Kong dollar slide is really a side effect of years of worldwide easy money.

  • The territory's in the unique position of having monetary policy

  • pegged to the US and its future prospects tied to China.

  • Over the past decade, those two factors have produced a massive boom and several bubbles.

  • Hong Kong's position as the world's most expensive property market,

  • where car parks sell for three billion dollars, is just one example.

  • Now with China slowing and the US raising rates,

  • this, in theory, should have trapped the city between a rock and a hard place.

  • But that hasn't happened because so much money is still available

  • that its the banks haven't needed to follow

  • the Hong Kong monetary authority in tracking US rate rises.

  • On Monday, the gap between three-month money in the US

  • and its Hong Kong equipment hit the widest point since the aftermath of Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

  • Also on Monday, the US dollar traded above 7.82 Hong Kong dollars for only the third time in ten years.

  • The question now is how the HKMA will manage to defense the peg

  • if the currency nears the weaker edge of its permitted range between 7.75 and 7.85.

  • With four hundred billion US dollars in reserves,

  • it has to funds available and few, if any, expect breaking the peg.

  • The HKMA does not even have to wait until the limit is breached to sell dollars,

  • and it might do so soon if it feels that will help ease market jitters.

  • But the real problem here is those market themselves.

  • Years of easy money risk having bred complacency.

  • The weak side of the peg has not been tested since 2005 either.

  • Back in 1983, Hong Kong's traders were used to uncertainty and expensive money.

  • Those today are not, but they might wanna think about what that looks like.

Way back in October, 1983, a young Hong Kong broker was working one Saturday

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香港ドル、10年来安値に迫る|ショートビュー (Hong Kong dollar nears 10-year low | Short View)

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    黃艾瑄 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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