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  • So, raise your hand if you've heard of the basic income before.

  • OK, so a couple of you.

  • Well, the idea behind the basic income

  • is that each citizen will receive

  • enough no-strings-attached guaranteed money

  • to cover basic living expenses.

  • And it's an idea that has led

  • to some interesting political bedfellows, recently.

  • So both former Labor leader, Andy Stern,

  • and conservative intellectual, Charles Murray,

  • have written books on the topic.

  • Both the Cato Institute and the movement for Black Lives

  • have endorsed the basic income, though from very different perspectives.

  • And just last week,

  • President Obama suggested that the basic income

  • would be a part of our national conversation

  • for the next two decades.

  • Now, I know what you're thinking:

  • what are you doing on stage,

  • and why aren't any of those people here that you just mentioned?

  • (Laughter)

  • The short answer is that I said, "Yes," and they didn't.

  • (Laughter)

  • But the longer answer is

  • that I'm both a student and a beneficiary of public policy.

  • I believe that the public policy has the power to transform lives,

  • and I think that the basic income

  • is one path forward to a more just future.

  • So this idea is a little different

  • from the others you've heard at the conference,

  • because it's not a new idea at all.

  • In fact, Thomas Paine first suggested a basic income

  • as an economic right for every citizen,

  • in 1792.

  • In the 1960s,

  • both Milton Friedman and Martin Luther King

  • suggested a basic income to fight poverty here in the United States.

  • And it almost became law in this country, under...

  • Richard Nixon, of all people, in 1971.

  • So I can see that a couple of you in the audience are thinking:

  • "Free money for everyone, that is un-American," right?

  • You know, these people don't need a check.

  • They need to get a job, they need to make better choices.

  • And if we give everyone a handout,

  • it's going to lead to a culture of dependency,

  • and it's going to lead to laziness and vice.

  • But social science research over the last couple of decades

  • have shown that many of the ideas we have about poverty and the poor

  • are dead wrong.

  • Poor choices don't lead to poverty:

  • in fact, poverty can limit choices

  • and lead to poor outcomes in surprising ways.

  • One study shows that the effect of poverty on your decisions

  • about your finances and your health and your job

  • is equivalent to 13 lost IQ points.

  • And the conditions that are associated with poverty,

  • like violence, malnutrition, abuse, and pollution,

  • can stunt brain development, particularly for young brains.

  • And so poverty is the cause and not the effect of poor choices.

  • Programs that try to fight poverty by changing behavior won't work.

  • In fact, it's just the opposite:

  • Cash transfers are one way

  • that we can expand choices and lead to better outcomes for families.

  • I'll give you an example from my own family.

  • My mother Denise was born here, in Washington DC.

  • She was the youngest of seven kids.

  • And my grandmother struggled

  • to provide the basics on a postal worker salary.

  • And it was a cash transfer,

  • an unexpected cash transfer in the form of social security survivor benefits

  • that allowed my mother to go to college.

  • And she was the first person in our family to get a degree,

  • right here at the University of the District of Columbia.

  • And without that no-strings-attached cash transfer,

  • both her choices and my own would look a lot different today.

  • And it's not just my own family:

  • There have been studies across decades, and in many countries,

  • that show that the basic income does not discourage work.

  • In fact it encourages entrepreneurship,

  • and allows people to continue their schooling.

  • Recipients report better health outcomes, and better nutrition.

  • And a randomized controlled trial conducted in Kenya and Uganda shows

  • that there is no statistically significant increase

  • in alcohol or tobacco consumption

  • from a basic income.

  • So if the success of cash transfers

  • are one reason to support the basic income,

  • another reason is that employment,

  • you know, the idea that you just need to get a job,

  • that no longer is a guarantee to keep you out of poverty.

  • A cash transfer allowed my mother to enter the middle class,

  • but it was her job as a public school teacher

  • that kept us in the middle class.

  • And the story of the last three decades

  • has been the slow disappearance of those jobs.

  • Jobs that provide retirement benefits,

  • paid time off,

  • raises, periodically.

  • In 1960, the three largest employers were GM, AT&T, and Ford.

  • Places that provided good union jobs.

  • Today, three of the largest employers are Walmart, McDonalds and Yum! brands,

  • places where workers struggle to make it past the poverty line.

  • In Lawrence, Massachusetts,

  • is a former factory town where I taught elementary school.

  • The median family is $6,300 poorer than they were in 1980,

  • largely because the jobs that have replaced factory jobs

  • don't pay nearly as well or offer as many benefits.

  • Now, more optimistic policymakers will say we've heard this all before,

  • that in every previous era,

  • new technology has led to more opportunities

  • than it has displaced or destroyed.

  • And to a certain extent that's true.

  • So if you are a Stagecoach driver, you could get a job driving a truck.

  • But what about the horses?

  • In 1900,

  • there were over 21 million horses in the United States.

  • By 1960, that number had dwindled to just over three million.

  • Today, one Ford Focus can do the work of 160 horses,

  • and thanks to the computing revolution, we have machines

  • that can do the mental work of hundreds of human beings.

  • Already there are algorithms that can outperform radiologists

  • in discovering cancerous tumors.

  • The Associated Press uses software

  • to write 3,000 financial reports every quarter.

  • Think of how many journalists that's displaced.

  • One Oxford University study

  • found that 47 percent of Americans, nearly half of our workforce,

  • is in danger of losing their job to a computer or a machine.

  • We can't simply retrain half of our workforce.

  • We need a policy like the basic income

  • to provide the stability that employment once provided.

  • Now we've already seen

  • the effect of increasing disparities and increasing inequality

  • on our political and social system.

  • Inequality is corrosive to democracy.

  • I don't need to tell you that:

  • you can pick up a newspaper and look at any headline

  • and see that inequality is corrosive to democracy.

  • And if we're serious about strengthening our social contract

  • and preparing ourselves for the next century,

  • we need a policy like the basic income.

  • It's also not just inequality by race or class or gender;

  • it's inequality by place.

  • So Washington is a prime example

  • of a city divided into haves and have-nots,

  • but this is a regional problem as well.

  • One 2015 study of the 10 richest counties

  • found that five of the richest counties are here in the Washington DC area,

  • and all but one are in the Northeast Corridor.

  • Meanwhile, towns like Woonsocket, Rhode Island,

  • which was hit hard by the recession,

  • that relies on its residents two million dollars in food stamp benefits

  • just to power the local economy,

  • those towns are left to wither in the shadows.

  • We can't concentrate our economy

  • in Washington, and in New York, and in Silicon Valley

  • and allow places like Woonsocket to die.

  • We can no longer pretend

  • that the jobs of the past are going to come back,

  • or that employment will be enough to navigate an uncertain future.

  • And we can't keep asking people to change their behavior,

  • instead of attending to their basic needs.

  • Now is the time, more than ever,

  • to write new rules for our new economy,

  • as we did a century ago

  • when we decided that children belonged in schools and not in factories.

  • When we decided that we could provide social security to our elders

  • as a part of our national birthright.

  • When we determined that eight hours of honest work

  • should afford you the dignity of your dreams.

  • I have faith that we will rise to the occasion.

  • For while the ideas may be new,

  • the spirit of our people endures.

  • Thank you.

  • (Applause)

So, raise your hand if you've heard of the basic income before.

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TEDx】ベーシックインカムの場合|セバスチャン・ジョンソン|TEDxMidAtlantic (【TEDx】The Case for Basic Income | Sebastian Johnson | TEDxMidAtlantic)

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    王惟惟 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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