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  • North Korea has been showing off its

  • latest range of ballistic missiles and

  • this map shows how far each one can go.

  • As you can see, it looks like most of the

  • United States is in range and it's got

  • people panicking. "The real fear is that

  • North Korea is getting closer to

  • having a missile that could reach the...

  • mainland United States, the west coast

  • United States, Hawaii and Alaska and the west

  • coast. But a closer look reveals that

  • this map doesn't exactly tell the full

  • story... as of right now. The longest range

  • missile the one that's supposed to put

  • the US in danger, is the Taepodong-2.

  • it's an intercontinental ballistic

  • missile or ICBM. It's the kind of thing

  • that the US and Russia have thousands of

  • and had used as a threat against each

  • other during the Cold War. "Hold at the

  • ready never less than a thousand

  • missiles. North Korea has been working on

  • one of its own for quite a while, except

  • their version doesn't really work. North

  • Koreans have had nuclear bombs since 2006 and

  • they could certainly attack their

  • neighbors. But they've had no real way to

  • deliver them to a distant target. They

  • could try and drop one from an airplane

  • but it would be likely shot down well

  • before getting to the target. The most

  • effective way to use a nuclear bomb is

  • to attach it to a missile. Different

  • delivery systems determine how far the

  • target can be. North Korea already has a

  • huge arsenal of short and medium-range

  • missiles but it doesn't have a working

  • ICBM, which can hit a target 15,000

  • kilometers away because it's actually

  • four missiles in one. Stacked on top of

  • each other, each missile is used one by

  • one to push the warhead into space. Then

  • once it's over target, this fourth

  • section re-enters the atmosphere and

  • detonates.

  • This is a very hard thing to engineer

  • and it's exactly why North Korea doesn't

  • have a working Taepodong-2 yet. Under

  • the pretense of testing a rocket engine

  • the country has tested it five times and

  • it's failed three times. It's managed to

  • launch into space twice but it's never

  • made it close to the final and crucial

  • stage of reentry. Theoretically North

  • Korea has two other ICBMs: the KN-14 and

  • the KN-08 that are capable of reaching

  • the US west coast. But neither of these

  • have been tested yet. So in reality, North

  • Korea cannot hit the US with a nuclear

  • ICBM today. That's the good news. The bad

  • news is that they've been trying to

  • build one for more than a decade and

  • experts think they'll have an ICBM

  • before 2027. That's because the US

  • intelligence community believes North

  • Korea may have achieved one of the

  • hardest parts of building an ICBM; making

  • a nuclear bomb small enough to fit on

  • one. A smaller bomb will make the missile

  • lighter and more efficient, making this

  • range very possible for a functioning

  • Taepodong-2 or KN-14. So this begs

  • the question: what would happen if North

  • Korea gets a working an ICBM? It helps to

  • understand why they want one in the

  • first place. The North Koreans first got

  • nuclear technology in the 1950s when

  • their ally, the Soviet Union, helped them

  • build nuclear reactors for energy. At the

  • same time they were protected from their

  • enemies, South Korea and the US, by the

  • massive nuclear arsenal of the Soviet

  • Union. But in 1991 when the Soviet Union

  • collapsed that protection went away. So

  • North Korean dictator Kim jong-il took

  • matters into his own hands and started

  • using the nuclear reactors to make

  • weapons. The US didn't want an aggressive

  • rogue state to have nuclear weapons so

  • three consecutive US presidents all

  • tried different tactics to get North

  • Korea to stop. Clinton negotiated, Bush

  • suspended negotiations and threaten them,

  • and Obama simply tried to wait North

  • Korea out. But every single plan failed

  • to stop the nuclear program. And there's

  • a reason for that. The Kim dynasty

  • believes their only option for security

  • is to have proven nuclear capabilities.

  • They saw the US invade Iraq and topple

  • Saddam Hussein because they thought he

  • might have nukes. They also saw Libyan

  • dictator Moammar Gadhafi negotiate with

  • the US and give up his nuclear program.

  • Only to be killed by US-backed rebels. The

  • Kim dynasty is determined not to be next.

  • So they've gone on to build an arsenal

  • of missiles for their nuclear bombs. The

  • Nodong is functional today and has a

  • range of fifteen hundred kilometers.

  • North Korea's SCUD missiles are highly

  • effective within a thousand kilometers.

  • This puts North Korea's main enemies,

  • South Korea and Japan, within range. As

  • well as a sixty-two thousand US troops

  • stationed there. In fact North Korea

  • wants to make that loud and clear. And it

  • does so by successfully testing these

  • short-range missiles a lot. The tests

  • provide a chance for them to improve

  • their missiles, but more importantly they

  • send a political message. South Korea and

  • Japan wouldn't attack North Korea

  • because they've seen the missiles that

  • could devastate some of their largest

  • cities. Also they don't have nuclear

  • weapons of their own. So what's keeping

  • North Korea from attacking its enemies?

  • The US is. They've promised to protect

  • South Korea and Japan with the largest

  • nuclear arsenal in the world. This puts

  • North Korea at a disadvantage; it knows

  • the US can obliterate it but it can't

  • reach the US just yet. This is why the

  • US can safely cut off North Korean trade

  • and enact other punishments. And this

  • brings us back to why North Korea wants

  • an ICBM so badly; it's what they need to

  • tip the scales in their favor. Right now

  • North Korea can only attack US

  • allies. If it can successfully test the

  • Taepodong-2 it would be the same as

  • telling the US: if you nuke us, we'll

  • nuke you. If the US knows North Korea

  • can target an American city it'll be

  • less likely to come to the aid of South

  • Korea or Japan. This would effectively

  • break up the alliance that's designed to

  • keep North Korea in check. But the

  • implications of this would go far beyond

  • the Korean Peninsula. Suddenly in charge

  • of their own protection, South Korea and

  • Japan would potentially develop nuclear

  • weapons of their own. Something Donald

  • Trump once said he would be fine with.

  • This would trigger a process called a

  • nuclear proliferation, and it's exactly

  • what the US has been trying to prevent

  • since the Cold War. Right now there are

  • 9 countries with nuclear weapons of

  • their own. 190 maintain a non-nuclear

  • status because of the non-proliferation

  • treaty. But the success of a North Korean

  • ICBM could change that. If South Korea

  • and Japan start looking to change their

  • nuclear status, it could encourage other

  • countries to do the same. So experts are

  • urging the US and take action now while

  • it still can.

  • President Trump is pressing China to

  • help. See China continues to trade and

  • have a diplomatic relationship with North

  • Korea, essentially keeping the regime

  • alive. So if Trump can get China to

  • leverage or cut off that support, North

  • Korea might not have enough resources to

  • keep pursuing an ICBM. But for now as

  • North Korea continues to test and parade

  • missiles, tensions continue to rise and

  • the push to keep them from having a

  • nuclear ICBM gets stronger; not because

  • of the danger it poses to the US alone,

  • but because of the repercussions that

  • could be so severe and so far reaching.

North Korea has been showing off its

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北朝鮮の核の脅威を説明 (The North Korean nuclear threat, explained)

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    gotony5614.me97 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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