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  • The Germans are a cautious bunch,

  • they have long worried that their housing market is over-heating.

  • Now, the're worrying about the stock market, too.

  • The Dax, Germany's benchmark stock index has hitted series of all-time highs over the past six weeks.

  • It's total return this year, have beaten those of the S&P 500,

  • and, it has been a popular destination for money switching out of US equities and into European ones.

  • But, a regular survey of German executives by Common Spike and the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management,

  • suggested that managers' appetite for stocks is waning.

  • top parameter is well out earlier this year, is such scepticism justified?

  • Well, on the face of it, no.

  • But price-earnings ratio for the Dax remains well below that of the S&P 500.

  • And, the rise in the Dax has been partly driven by improving earnings at German companies.

  • Aggregate forecast the Dax companies have risen over six percent since the start of the year.

  • But the Dax is highly cyclical.

  • It is full of carmakers, capital goods and chemicals stocks.

  • Bayer, BASF, Siemens and Daimler accounts for over a third of the index's gains since December.

  • All that means it is sensitive to changes in macroeconomics sentiment.

  • This has been positive recently.

  • But strategiests Deutsche Bank think that nice surprises on the macro front in Europe will become rarer in the months ahead.

  • And that would be bad for German cyclicals.

  • Orginary Germans have, of course, long been sceptical of their equity market's generally,

  • after such a strong rally in the Dax, prefessional investors would do well to exercise some cautions, too.

The Germans are a cautious bunch,

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ドイツ株は過熱気味?| ドイツ株過熱? (German equities overheating? | Short View)

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    Mii Wei に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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