字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント TRACE DOMINGUEZ: Hey, everyone. Thanks for tuning in to Seeker Plus. I know this is also on Seeker. This is a slightly different format where we get really deep into a topic for a little while. So stick with us. I'm Trace. This is going to be really cool. We're talking about artificial intelligence today. And we didn't want to present it as artificial intelligence is scary or artificial intelligence is the best, but come down in the middle and give you both perspectives because there are people on both sides of pretty much every one of these debates. So let's kick into it. Artificial intelligence is everywhere, and it's growing both in scope and also in scale. It's just getting to be in everything. And people have strong opinions on this. One article called "The Debate Itself-- Singulatarians Versus Skeptics," which we thought was kind of cool. And people do see artificial intelligence as a possible threat-- people like Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates kind of, and at one point Steve Wozniak. On the other side, people see artificial intelligence as the future and inevitable-- people like Larry Page of Google-- and said that in order for Google to achieve its mission, that means achieving AI. Mark Zuckerberg uses AI to run his home, and Facebook is moving towards having AI assistants. Even Uber has an AI division. So it is like this old tech new tech and with Elon Musk right in the middle. But chances are you all probably know this stuff already because you follow Science News likely if you're watching this show. But one way to think about this is positives and negatives. Everyone has an opinion about AI, and both of those opinions are usually valid. So we thought we'd see how the debate is put together rather than coming down on one side or the other. So let's quickly define artificial intelligence. It's not just robots and chat bots and assistants. It's being used across all sorts of fields in industries, and it's computers and it's machines imitating human intelligence. But it's not just that. It's more than just learning. It's more than just replicating our intelligence. It's about learning new things, and it's also about the machines learning on their own. The big idea, the big concept here could be great, but it also could be kind of scary. So let's talk about different ways that you could apply artificial intelligence. A big one being talked about right now is artificially intelligent automobiles, trucks, and cars that drive themselves, which, if you think about it, that is an intelligent task. It requires decision making and learning and learning from your experiences. And a big thing would be safety. 90 percent of car accidents now, car crashes, are caused by humans, human error. Smart cars, intelligent cars, they would be able to take in the environment around them. GPS could tell them what roads they're on and also what buildings are nearby and other monuments and things, of course. They have cameras and scanners. So they can see the trees and the way the road actually moves versus what it's supposed to do. And you can see things like other cars. Which what if they were smart, too? Then they could interact with each other. And then you have this network that is moving everywhere. What if you have smart traffic lights? Eventually this whole system could be one giant AI system where they're all talking to each other. And then we could virtually eliminate 90% of crashes, right? Assuming we're eliminating all of the human error ones. Of course, there are moral issues here. The car might be designed to cause the least damage to the owner of the car. It might not want the car to be destroyed in a crash. And so that's a moral question. Can the owner of the car, say, a taxi company decide not to protect passengers or predestines over protecting their property? This is an ethical dilemma. What about a guy who owns a car? He would want to protect his family at all costs. But what if in doing so it sacrificed other people's property or destroyed other intelligent cars? It gets complicated because nothing is black and white when you get it out into the real world. And that's part of the problem with artificial intelligence across the board right now-- is that the real world is messy. Is it worth it to have a self-driving intelligent car that might not think some humans are worth saving over other humans or that some property isn't worth saving over other property even if it can prevent more accidents, even if it knows the fastest routes and could drive itself, so you wouldn't need to worry about people under age or people over age or people who were too intoxicated or inebriated in any number of different ways? At the end of the day, intelligent automobiles mean that, on the good side, we don't have to go to the DMV. We don't have to worry about drunk driving. But on the bad side, we're taking our control away from something that happens all the time all around us especially in urban areas. So if you're in a car and it's raining and you slide, you go around a corner and maybe something bad happens. The road's too wet. The car did something wrong. It's either going to destroy the life of the person in the car or a pedestrian on the sidewalk. That decision is made by a machine not by a human and maybe by somebody who programmed or owned that machine. We as a society have to make a decision to give up that control and hand it to an artificially intelligent machine. How do you feel about that? It's a debate. There's good and bad on both sides. And this applies across the board. Let's go to another example-- marketing. Marketing is pervasive, especially in the era of the internet. Marketers want to know where you're going to be, what you're going to buy, and what it takes to get you to buy something. You shop for shoes that one time, and now there's an ad for shoes on every website you visit and that shoe and a couple of other different shoes in a variety of true colors. And they're all really nice, and you kind of want all of them. But you kind of want none of them because they're just everywhere. Or maybe you regularly visit a site on your computer before you buy something. Maybe you visit it 20 times. Now right now all of that stuff happens and all of that data is there, but no one's really looking at all of that data except artificially intelligent machines. Predictive shopping and also recommendation engines on Netflix and on Amazon-- those are basic artificial intelligences. So imagine if they got way better. When you shop for something, do you just go and buy it or do you visit the same site once or twice, then maybe look at some reviews, then maybe ask your friends about it and then go back and buy it? An artificial intelligence system might be able to get you to buy that sooner because they know your behavior. So when you go there the first time, what if an artificial intelligent system just pulled in recommendations from the sites that you already visit that it knows you visit because of the cookies-- little files-- that all of those sites have stored on your computer? What if it knew your social network and it went to your friends who it knew had bought from this web site and already bought these types of items and said, oh, here we know that all of your friends like this thing and we know where you've shopped before. And the artificially intelligent system could anticipate what you want. Is that scary or is that good? Because sometimes I kind of like shoes, but I don't know what I want. And maybe the computer can tell me you do want this, and I might love it. But also it's kind of creepy to know that the computer knows my shopping habits and knows what websites I've visited and knows what my friends like and is anticipating what I might like. Good but also bad. The Trump campaign tapped into a marketing AI to help determine how it wanted to send out its messaging. And this marketing AI claims to have 45,000 data points on 230 million Americans. They claim that they know what makes us angry, happy, impassioned, or despondent. That's a lot of power for somebody to have and be able to then manipulate all sorts of different people into doing what they want because that's what marketing is about-- is I want to market something to you. I have to know how to reach you in order to do that and push your buttons and all sorts of other things. The idea is to get you to make an emotional decision rather than a rational one from time to time. Again, good or bad? What do you think? How about in medicine? Medicine is a field with huge amounts of data. But most of that data is protected and stored in very specific places, sometimes never even digitally. It's just papers or it's just file names and not so much all of the stuff in the file. AI machines could potentially take in huge amounts of this data, like medical records, doctor's notes, treatment options, disease histories, family histories, genetic information, and find patterns that could help doctors diagnose diseases in people that they didn't even know would have them. Let me give you an example. If I can analyze, as an intelligent machine, all of your medical history and also all of everyone else's medical history, who has all of these genetic markers, what if I can find a pattern and then use that to diagnose you and many other people? Would that offset the fact that I now have your medical information and I'm using it? Yeah, sure. I'm using it to help other people. Great. But I also have your private medical data. Maybe not great. The AI system doesn't necessarily care whether it has all of your data, but the more data it has, the better it's going to be able to do. It does involve us giving up some of this control to an intelligent machine in order to get a benefit back. On top of that, is it good to take away humans from healthcare? Will we rely someday 100% on computers diagnosing us? They don't really have emotions. They don't have gut feelings. They can't read real patients' experience in the same way that a well-trained doctor can. However, computers can examine data and find patterns in our genetic codes and things. Lists of symptoms really help with computers, but doctors don't always get the whole list. I've watched a lot of "House." I know there's a lot of lying that goes on in the examination room. I have lied to my doctor. I imagine you have, too. How often do you drink a week? Oh, a couple of times. Is it a couple of times or is it more? Mm? However, how many times have you googled something that you don't want to tell anybody about? Probably lots of times. So maybe, in this case, again, good and bad. Real people have all of these gut feelings and can help you understand what's going on, but you'll tell machines something that you may not tell people. So an artificially intelligent doctor might be able to help you in that way in a way that a person can't and vice versa. Really interesting discussion. We don't have the answer. Maybe you do. Let us know. So moving on. What about jobs? And specifically certain jobs. An Oxford study that came out in 2013 looked at 700 different jobs and assessed their ability to be automated and their probability that they would be. The jobs at the top of the list, which is actually the bottom of the list, were things like legal advising, marketing, bank teller, tax prep, shipping and cargo control, in fact, most everything you can think of for retail and auditing and tax adjusting, even sports-- things like umpires and refs. They were the number 15 most automatable job. Why do I need a referee if I have an intelligent system that can do this job? It's just assessing the rules and debating whether or not somebody had broken them. That is easy to do for a computer. It's not as easy to do with a referee or an umpire. Sports journalism, even, has already been done in large part much of it by robots. Humans are just slower at this stuff. And calculating is what computers do. So isn't this some place where artificial intelligence is going to come in? Now many of you are probably already thinking about how computers and robots have taken some jobs. And the first things that pop into people's heads are-- at least people like myself from Michigan-- is the auto industry. It's already taken a lot of jobs there-- automation. It's not people building cars. It's people managing robots building cars. This has also happened in cargo ships and in shipping in general. In fact, "99% Invisible" and Alex Madrigal came out with this really great audio documentary called "Containers." It was featured on "99% Invisible." It was really good. So go check it out. And it talks all about how docks used to be this really exciting place filled with people and smells and sights. And now it's more automated. And one person with a crane moves containers from one place to another. It's very different. All of that is automation taking over. Now imagine why do we need the person operating the crane if we have an artificial intelligence that can do that and it can do it faster and more precisely? Interesting. What about automation in a variety of other things like when you buy coffee? Do I really need to buy it from a person if I have an artificially intelligent system that can bring me that coffee? Sidebar-- the vending machine, where you get snacks or whatever. That's technically an artificial intelligence system. It knows how much money you put in. It knows what you want. And then you walk away. The first vending machines showed up in 1070 in China. They were coin operated pencil vending machines. In the 1970s, there were machines that dispensed tobacco at taverns. And by the late 1800s, you could get paper, envelopes, postcards, gum, and things on train platforms and at post offices. And that was somebody's livelihood before. That was somebody who was selling you envelopes and gum or tobacco or pencils. So robots and automation have been taking jobs for a long time-- end sidebar. Anyway, back to this Oxford study because it's super interesting. Humans are slower at calculating, like we were saying. But if you take tax prep jobs, bank teller jobs, retail jobs and you give them to intelligent machines, we are again giving up control, giving up access to something that used to be done by humans and was also a point of contact of me with a stranger or you with a friend. We're giving that to a machine, which some people come down on the good side of-- I don't want to have to interact with somebody to get coffee. I just want coffee-- and some people come down on the bad side of-- I would rather have my person than my coffee. It's part of my morning ritual. It's part of how I go through my day. And if you take that away from me, then that's one less person that I get to interact with, and that makes me happy. Artificial intelligence can do so many different things, and it will do so many different things in the future. But for now, it's all a matter of debate. On top of that, again, another sidebar. If you take away retail and all of these low level entry level jobs, what replaces them? What happens then? How does someone in high school or college get into the workforce or pay for college? How do they earn money if an artificial intelligence is already doing that job? How do you get started at work if all of the entry level jobs are done by machines? An interesting question. There's no real answer to that at the moment. What about an education? Right now the education system is in peril. We need more money for schools. We need less money for schools. It depends on who you ask, and it depends on what outlook you have on the future of our education system. But an obvious downfall of artificial intelligence moving into education is taking the roles of teachers, where an obvious upside is that an artificial intelligence will be able to do the best job at teaching in terms of knowing what you need to learn and knowing how to present that information to you, so that you learn at the best. When people say that they're-- I'm a visual learner, I'm a reading learner, or I'm an audio learner-- an artificially intelligent machine can do all of those things equally well, whereas a teacher might be better at some rather than others. It's a debate. And, again, we're relinquishing this control over something that we have traditionally had control over in order to potentially have an upside. But that upside might also have a downside. Even assisting the teacher would be really interesting because the AI maybe do tutor stuff with individual students on an individual basis very personalized for what they need, while the teacher is there to give them social skills and interaction and make sure that the classroom as a whole is progressing together. They can work together. This debate does often feel black and white, but perhaps it's less so because, if everyone is learning from a computer but they're getting their social skills from other humans, what does that mean for how we think? Are we going to have trouble thinking when interacting with humans? | posing more questions than I'm answering in this episode, but I think the exciting thing is that artificial intelligence holds so much promise in so many different areas of our culture and our experience and our abilities to do more in the future that, when people say, I'm afraid of the robot takeover, they're obviously only looking at this bad column and not at this good column. Because we could learn quicker and better and more personalized. We could have more personalized medicine. We could have better automobiles and automobile safety. But we'd also not control those cars. We'd not control our healthcare data as easily. We wouldn't have as much social interaction. We bought coffee maybe. There are things you have to give up. But we've given up things before. And we're OK now. There are lots of other applications that we don't have time to get into, like in the entertainment industry, in the security industry, in systems that make music or make movies or write stories. AI can be good, but, like everything, maybe it's AI in moderation. If every aspect of our lives is being driven by intelligent machines, does that take away our ability to be intelligent ourselves? I don't know. Think about it. A lot of what humans have been doing over the last few millennia is just figuring out how to live our lives on this planet and how to make the best of the situation that we are all in. We're in a giant aquarium floating in space, and we're all trying to figure out the best way to live inside of this bubble. AI can help us with that potentially, but it will change things. So where do you come down on that? If AI can do all these things that we used to have to do, then what do we do? All right, guys. Thanks so much for watching this episode about artificial intelligence. Let us know what you think down in the comments. Make sure that you watch last week's episode on InfraRed right here. And one more favor to ask. Please go over to vote.webbyawards.com because we got nominated for a Webby in the people's choice category, and we need your vote. It's for the Edge of Space video we did where we sent a camera into the stratosphere. It's so cool if you haven't watched it. Go watch it.
B1 中級 米 A.I.は全人類を滅ぼすのか、それともより良い未来を築くのか? (Will A.I. Destroy All Humans, Or Help Us Build A Better Future?) 333 47 Amy.Lin に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日 シェア シェア 保存 報告 動画の中の単語