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  • Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to

  • TED.

  • It's great to have you here.

  • 0:15 Elon Musk: Thanks for having me. CA: So, in the next half hour or so, we're

  • going to spend some time exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like,

  • which I guess makes the first question a little ironic: Why are you boring?

  • EM: Yeah.

  • I ask myself that frequently.

  • We're trying to dig a hole under LA, and this is to create the beginning of what will hopefully

  • be a 3D network of tunnels to alleviate congestion.

  • So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic.

  • It affects people in every part of the world.

  • It takes away so much of your life.

  • It's horrible.

  • It's particularly horrible in LA.

  • (Laughter)

  • CA: I think you've brought with you the first visualization that's been shown of this.

  • Can I show this?

  • EM: Yeah, absolutely.

  • So this is the first timeJust to show what we're talking about.

  • So a couple of key things that are important in having a 3D tunnel network.

  • First of all, you have to be able to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel seamlessly

  • into the fabric of the city.

  • So by having an elevator, sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator, you can integrate the

  • entrance and exits to the tunnel network just by using two parking spaces.

  • And then the car gets on a skate.

  • There's no speed limit here, so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers

  • an hour.

  • CA: How much?

  • EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles

  • per hour.

  • So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX in six minutesfive, six minutes.

  • (Applause)

  • CA: So possibly, initially done, it's like

  • on a sort of toll road-type basis.

  • EM: Yeah.

  • CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic

  • from the surface streets as well.

  • EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it

  • in the video, but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have.

  • You can go much further deep than you can go up.

  • The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall, so you can alleviate

  • any arbitrary level of urban congestion with a 3D tunnel network.

  • This is a very important point.

  • So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels, that will simply

  • alleviate congestion, it will get used up, and then you'll be back where you started,

  • back with congestion.

  • But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels, any number of levels.

  • CA: But peopleseen traditionally, it's

  • incredibly expensive to dig, and that would block this idea.

  • EM: Yeah.

  • Well, they're right.

  • To give you an example, the LA subway extension, which is — I think it's a two-and-a-half

  • mile extension that was just completed for two billion dollars.

  • So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA.

  • And this is not the highest utility subway in the world.

  • So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally.

  • I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement in the cost per mile of tunneling.

  • CA: And how could you achieve that?

  • 3:47 EM: Actually, if you just do two things, you

  • can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement, and I think you can go beyond

  • that.

  • So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter by a factor of two or more.

  • So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet

  • in diameter to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles and sufficient ventilation for combustion

  • engine cars.

  • But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting, which is 12 feet, which is plenty

  • to get an electric skate through, you drop the diameter by a factor of two and the cross-sectional

  • area by a factor of four, and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.

  • So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.

  • Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop, and then the

  • rest of the time is putting in reinforcements for the tunnel wall.

  • So if you design the machine instead to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing, that

  • will give you a factor of two improvement.

  • Combine that and that's a factor of eight.

  • Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits, so you can

  • jack up the power to the machine substantially.

  • I think you can get at least a factor of two, maybe a factor of four or five improvement

  • on top of that.

  • So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps to get somewhere in excess

  • of an order of magnitude improvement in the cost per mile, and our target actually is

  • we've got a pet snail called Gary, this is from Gary the snail from "South Park,"

  • I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."

  • 5:28 (Laughter)

  • 5:30 So Gary is capable ofcurrently he's capable

  • of going 14 times faster than a tunnel-boring machine.

  • 5:40 (Laughter)

  • 5:43 CA: You want to beat Gary.

  • 5:45 EM: We want to beat Gary.

  • 5:46 (Laughter)

  • 5:48 He's not a patient little fellow, and that

  • will be victory.

  • Victory is beating the snail.

  • 5:56 CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming

  • about future cities, they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.

  • You go aboveground.

  • Why isn't that a better solution?

  • You save all that tunneling cost.

  • 6:09 EM: Right.

  • I'm in favor of flying things.

  • Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly.

  • This is not some inherent bias against flying things, but there is a challenge with flying

  • cars in that they'll be quite noisy, the wind force generated will be very high.

  • Let's just say that if something's flying over your head, a whole bunch of flying cars

  • going all over the place, that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.

  • 6:42 (Laughter)

  • 6:44 You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel

  • better about today."

  • You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap, or is it going to come off and guillotine

  • me?"

  • Things like that.

  • 6:59 CA: So you've got this vision of future cities

  • with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath.

  • Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?

  • Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea you released a few years ago.

  • 7:13 EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering

  • around with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.

  • We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX, just for a student competition, to

  • encourage innovative ideas in transport.

  • And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world after the Large

  • Hadron Collider, by volume.

  • So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing, and then we think we

  • mightso we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods, but we're going

  • to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go if it's not pushing something.

  • So we're cautiously optimistic we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet

  • train even in a .8-mile stretch.

  • 8:11 CA: Whoa.

  • Good brakes.

  • 8:13 EM: Yeah, I mean, it's — yeah.

  • It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.

  • 8:20 CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop

  • in a tunnel running quite long distances.

  • 8:26 EM: Exactly.

  • And looking at tunneling technology, it turns out that in order to make a tunnel, you have

  • toIn order to seal against the water table, you've got to typically design a tunnel

  • wall to be good to about five or six atmospheres.

  • So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere, or near-vacuum.

  • So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically, if you build a tunnel that is good enough

  • to resist the water table, it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.

  • 9:01 CA: Huh.

  • 9:03 EM: So, yeah.

  • 9:04 CA: And so you could actually picture, what

  • kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?

  • 9:12 EM: I think there's no real length limit.

  • You could dig as much as you want.

  • I think if you were to do something like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop, I think you'd probably

  • want to go underground the entire way because it's a high-density area.

  • You're going under a lot of buildings and houses, and if you go deep enough, you cannot

  • detect the tunnel.

  • Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying to have a tunnel dug under

  • my house.

  • Like, if that tunnel is dug more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your

  • house, you will not be able to detect it being dug at all.

  • In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug, whatever device you are using,

  • you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military, who is trying to

  • detect tunnels from Hamas, and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect

  • drug tunnels.

  • So the reality is that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations, and once the

  • tunnel depth is below a certain level, it is undetectable.

  • Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument, you might be able to detect it.

  • 10:28 CA: So you've started a new company to do

  • this called The Boring Company.

  • Very nice.

  • Very funny.

  • 10:34 (Laughter)

  • 10:35 EM: What's funny about that?

  • 10:37 (Laughter)

  • 10:39 CA: How much of your time is this?

  • 10:42 EM: It's maybe ... two or three percent.

  • 10:48 CA: You've bought a hobby.

  • This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.

  • 10:52 (Laughter)

  • 10:53 EM: I mean, it really is, likeThis is

  • basically interns and people doing it part time.

  • We bought some second-hand machinery.

  • It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so

  • 11:11 CA: So an even bigger part of your time is

  • being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla.

  • Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project the realization that actually, in

  • a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving, there may end up being

  • more cars on the roads on any given hour than there are now?

  • 11:33 EM: Yeah, exactly.

  • A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous, they'll be able to go faster and

  • that will alleviate congestion.

  • And to some degree that will be true, but once you have shared autonomy where it's much

  • cheaper to go by car and you can go point to point, the affordability of going in a

  • car will be better than that of a bus.

  • Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.

  • So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy, and

  • actually traffic will get far worse.

  • 12:11 CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading

  • the world that electrification was the future of cars, and a few years ago, people were

  • laughing at you.

  • Now, not so much.

  • 12:23 EM: OK.

  • 12:24 (Laughter)

  • 12:26 I don't know.

  • I don't know.

  • 12:29 CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every

  • auto manufacturer has announced serious electrification plans for the short- to medium-term future?

  • 12:39 EM: Yeah.

  • Yeah.

  • I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program.

  • They vary in seriousness.

  • Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric, and some are just dabbling

  • in it.

  • And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells, but I think that won't last much longer.

  • 13:00 CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,

  • where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it."

  • Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?

  • 13:12 EM: Yeah.

  • I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine, and there are a lot

  • of exciting things that we have coming.

  • Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.

  • We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.

  • 13:31 CA: OK, we're going to come to this.

  • So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish.

  • 13:38 EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting

  • production in July.

  • 13:42 CA: Wow.

  • One of the things that people are so excited about is the fact that it's got autopilot.

  • And you put out this video a while back showing what that technology would look like.

  • 13:57 EM: Yeah.

  • There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now.

  • What are we seeing here?

  • 14:02 EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and

  • GPS.

  • So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here.

  • This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses.

  • The whole road system is meant to be navigated with passive optical, or cameras, and so once

  • you solve cameras or vision, then autonomy is solved.

  • If you don't solve vision, it's not solved.

  • So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net that's very effective

  • for road conditions.

  • 14:42 CA: Right.

  • Many other people are going the LIDAR route.

  • You want cameras plus radar is most of it.

  • 14:47 EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with

  • just cameras.

  • Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would, just cameras.

  • 14:55 CA: So the new cars being sold right now have

  • eight cameras in them.

  • They can't yet do what that showed.

  • When will they be able to?

  • 15:07 EM: I think we're still on track for being

  • able to go cross-country from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.

  • 15:17 CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're

  • saying, someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, tap in

  • "New York," off it goes.

  • 15:27 EM: Yeah.

  • 15:28 CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheelby

  • the end of 2017.

  • 15:33 EM: Yeah.

  • Essentially, November or December of this year, we should be able to go all the way

  • from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any

  • point during the entire journey.

  • 15:47 (Applause)

  • 15:49 CA: Amazing.

  • But part of that is possible because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all

  • these roads.

  • You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.

  • 16:02 EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting

  • is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route even if you change

  • the route dynamically.

  • So, it's fairly easyIf you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's

  • one thing, but it should be able to go, really be very good, certainly once you enter a highway,

  • to go anywhere on the highway system in a given country.

  • So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York.

  • We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real time.

  • So you were going from LA to New York.

  • Now go from LA to Toronto.

  • 16:49 CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second,

  • in terms of the technology alone, the time when someone will be able to buy one of your

  • cars and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep and wake up and

  • find that they've arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely?

  • 17:06 EM: I think that's about two years.

  • So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time,

  • because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going

  • to be comfortable falling asleep.

  • You shouldn't be, certainly.

  • 17:28 (Laughter)

  • 17:31 It's never going to be perfect.

  • No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it's perhapsthe car is unlikely to

  • crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, then people are like, OK, wow,

  • if I were to live a thousand lives, I would still most likely never experience a crash,

  • then that's probably OK.

  • 17:53 CA: To sleep.

  • I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually get seduced too early to think

  • that this is safe, and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things

  • back.

  • 18:04 EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system

  • is likely to at least mitigate the crash, except in rare circumstances.

  • The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic.

  • I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, that they will

  • have an accident that is their fault.

  • It's never zero.

  • So really the key threshold for autonomy is how much better does autonomy need to be than

  • a person before you can rely on it?

  • 18:38 CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off

  • driving, the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive, because at that point you've

  • spoken of people being able to buy a car, drops you off at work, and then you let it

  • go and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people, earn you money, maybe even

  • cover the cost of your lease of that car, so you can kind of get a car for free.

  • Is that really likely?

  • 19:02 EM: Yeah.

  • Absolutely this is what will happen.

  • So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car and you can choose to use

  • that car exclusively, you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family,

  • only by other drivers who are rated five star, you can choose to share it sometimes but not

  • other times.

  • That's 100 percent what will occur.

  • It's just a question of when.

  • 19:32 CA: Wow.

  • So you mentioned the Semi and I think you're planning to announce this in September, but

  • I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today?

  • 19:42 EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.

  • 19:46 (Laughter)

  • 19:48 It's alive.

  • 19:50 CA: OK.

  • 19:51 EM: That's definitely a case where we want

  • to be cautious about the autonomy features.

  • Yeah.

  • 19:58 (Laughter)

  • 20:00 CA: We can't see that much of it, but it doesn't

  • look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck.

  • It looks kind of badass.

  • What sort of semi is this?

  • 20:10 EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck.

  • So it's the highest weight capability and with long range.

  • So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads.

  • And this is something which people do not today think is possible.

  • They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range, and then

  • with the Tesla Semi we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque

  • any diesel semi.

  • And if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.

  • 20:57 (Laughter)

  • 21:00 (Applause)

  • 21:02 CA: That's pretty cool.

  • And short term, these aren't driverless.

  • These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.

  • 21:09 EM: Yes.

  • So what will be really fun about this is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric

  • motor, whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car, you've

  • got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill.

  • So this will be a very spry truck.

  • You can drive this around like a sports car.

  • There's no gears.

  • It's, like, single speed.

  • 21:33 CA: There's a great movie to be made here

  • somewhere.

  • I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well, but it's a great movie.

  • 21:39 (Laughter)

  • 21:40 EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.

  • When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck.

  • It's really weird, because you're driving around and you're just so nimble, and you're

  • in this giant truck.

  • 21:52 CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype?

  • 21:56 EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot,

  • and I was like, this is crazy.

  • 21:59 CA: Wow.

  • This is no vaporware.

  • 22:02 EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck

  • and making these mad maneuvers.

  • 22:06 CA: This is cool.

  • OK, from a really badass picture to a kind of less badass picture.

  • This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something.

  • What on earth is going on here?

  • 22:17 EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of

  • the future that I think is how things will evolve.

  • You've got an electric car in the driveway.

  • If you look in between the electric car and the house, there are actually three Powerwalls

  • stacked up against the side of the house, and then that house roof is a solar roof.

  • So that's an actual solar glass roof.

  • 22:38 CA: OK.

  • 22:39 EM: That's a picture of a realwell, admittedly,

  • it's a real fake house.

  • That's a real fake house.

  • 22:45 (Laughter)

  • 22:48 CA: So these roof tiles, some of them have

  • in them basically solar power, the ability to

  • 22:56 EM: Yeah.

  • Solar glass tiles where you can adjust the texture and the color to a very fine-grained

  • level, and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass, such that when you're looking

  • at the roof from street level or close to street level, all the tiles look the same

  • whether there is a solar cell behind it or not.

  • So you have an even color from the ground level.

  • If you were to look at it from a helicopter, you would be actually able to look through

  • and see that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not.

  • You can't tell from street level.

  • 23:42 CA: You put them in the ones that are likely

  • to see a lot of sun, and that makes these roofs super affordable, right?

  • They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.

  • 23:50 EM: Yeah.

  • We're very confident that the cost of the roof plus the cost of electricity — A solar

  • glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof plus the cost of electricity.

  • So in other words, this will be economically a no-brainer, we think it will look great,

  • and it will lastWe thought about having the warranty be infinity, but then people

  • thought, well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish, but actually this is

  • toughened glass.

  • Well after the house has collapsed and there's nothing there, the glass tiles will still

  • be there.

  • 24:35 (Applause)

  • 24:37 CA: I mean, this is cool.

  • So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think, with four different roofing

  • types.

  • 24:44 EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two

  • initially, and the second two will be introduced early next year.

  • 24:50 CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?

  • How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?

  • 24:58 EM: I think eventually almost all houses will

  • have a solar roof.

  • The thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order of 40 or 50 years.

  • So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years.

  • But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately.

  • But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward to say 15 years from now, it will be unusual

  • to have a roof that does not have solar.

  • 25:36 CA: Is there a mental model thing that people

  • don't get here that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power, most

  • houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof pretty much to power all of their needs.

  • If you could capture the power, it could pretty much power all their needs.

  • You could go off-grid, kind of.

  • 25:55 EM: It depends on where you are and what the

  • house size is relative to the roof area, but it's a fair statement to say that most houses

  • in the US have enough roof area to power all the needs of the house.

  • 26:10 CA: So the key to the economics of the cars,

  • the Semi, of these houses is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries, which you've made

  • a huge bet on as Tesla.

  • In many ways, that's almost the core competency.

  • And you've decided that to really, like, own that competency, you just have to build the

  • world's largest manufacturing plant to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries,

  • with this guy.

  • What is this?

  • 26:43 EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory, progress

  • so far on the Gigafactory.

  • Eventually, you can sort of roughly see that there's sort of a diamond shape overall, and

  • when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond, or that's the idea behind it, and

  • it's aligned on true north.

  • It's a small detail.

  • 27:04 CA: And capable of producing, eventually,

  • like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.

  • 27:11 EM: A hundred gigawatt hours.

  • We think probably more, but yeah.

  • 27:14 CA: And they're actually being produced right

  • now.

  • 27:17 EM: They're in production already.

  • CA: You guys put out this video.

  • I mean, is that speeded up?

  • 27:21 EM: That's the slowed down version.

  • 27:23 (Laughter)

  • 27:25 CA: How fast does it actually go?

  • 27:27 EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,

  • you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light.

  • It's just blur.

  • 27:35 (Laughter)

  • 27:39 CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what

  • makes an exciting future is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy.

  • Help us picture this.

  • How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?

  • 27:52 EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.

  • It's not 10, it's not a thousand.

  • Most likely a hundred.

  • 27:59 CA: See, I find this amazing.

  • You can picture what it would take to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing.

  • It's like you're building one, it costs five billion dollars, or whatever, five to 10 billion

  • dollars.

  • Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project.

  • And you're planning to do, at Teslaannounce another two this year.

  • 28:24 EM: I think we'll announce locations for somewhere

  • between two and four Gigafactories later this year.

  • Yeah, probably four.

  • 28:33 CA: Whoa.

  • 28:34 (Applause) No more teasing from you for here?

  • Likewhere, continent?

  • You can say no.

  • 28:48 EM: We need to address a global market.

  • 28:52 CA: OK.

  • 28:53 (Laughter)

  • 28:54 This is cool.

  • I think we should talk forActually, double mark it.

  • I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one.

  • I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this.

  • You're on a body now giving advice to a guy

  • 29:18 EM: Who?

  • 29:20 CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe

  • in climate change, and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing

  • that.

  • They'd like you to walk away from that.

  • What would you say to them?

  • 29:31 EM: Well, I think that first of all, I'm just

  • on two advisory councils where the format consists of going around the room and asking

  • people's opinion on things, and so there's like a meeting every month or two.

  • That's the sum total of my contribution.

  • But I think to the degree that there are people in the room who are arguing in favor of doing

  • something about climate change, or social issues, I've used the meetings I've had thus

  • far to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.

  • 30:13 (Applause)

  • 30:15 And if I hadn't done that, that wasn't on

  • the agenda before.

  • So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.

  • 30:25 CA: OK.

  • 30:26 (Applause)

  • 30:30 So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.

  • Last time you were here, you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious

  • dream to develop rockets that were actually reusable.

  • And you've only gone and done it.

  • 30:46 EM: Finally.

  • It took a long time.

  • 30:47 CA: Talk us through this.

  • What are we looking at here?

  • 30:50 EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters

  • coming back from very high and fast in space.

  • So just delivered the upper stage at high velocity.

  • I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so, delivery of the upper stage.

  • 31:09 (Applause)

  • 31:12 CA: So that was a sped-up

  • 31:14 EM: That was the slowed down version.

  • 31:16 (Laughter)

  • 31:17 CA: I thought that was the sped-up version.

  • But I mean, that's amazing, and several of these failed before you finally figured out

  • how to do it, but now you've done this, what, five or six times?

  • 31:28 EM: We're at eight or nine.

  • 31:31 CA: And for the first time, you've actually

  • reflown one of the rockets that landed.

  • 31:35 EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster

  • and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again, so it's the first reflight of an

  • orbital booster where that reflight is relevant.

  • So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant if it is rapid and complete.

  • So like an aircraft or a car, the reusability is rapid and complete.

  • You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.

  • 32:07 CA: Right.

  • So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea of sending many, many, many

  • people to Mars in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.

  • 32:17 EM: Yeah.

  • 32:19 CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket

  • to do it.

  • Help us understand the scale of this thing.

  • 32:24 EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person.

  • Yeah, and that's the vehicle.

  • 32:33 (Laughter)

  • 32:35 CA: So if that was a skyscraper, that's like,

  • did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?

  • 32:40 EM: Probably a little more, yeah.

  • The thrust level of this is reallyThis configuration is about four times the thrust

  • of the Saturn V moon rocket.

  • 32:55 CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket

  • humanity ever created before.

  • 33:00 EM: Yeah.

  • Yeah.

  • 33:03 CA: As one does.

  • EM: Yeah.

  • 33:05 (Laughter)

  • 33:08 In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter

  • of a million pounds of thrust, so for every 10 million pounds of thrust, there's 40 747s.

  • So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.

  • 33:25 CA: And so even with a machine designed to

  • escape Earth's gravity, I think you told me last time this thing could actually take a

  • fully loaded 747, people, cargo, everything, into orbit.

  • 33:37 EM: Exactly.

  • This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, maximum passengers, maximum cargo on

  • the 747 — this can take it as cargo.

  • 33:51 CA: So based on this, you presented recently

  • this Interplanetary Transport System which is visualized this way.

  • This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time?

  • 20 years time?

  • People walking into this rocket.

  • 34:08 EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to

  • 10-year time frame.

  • Aspirationally, that's our target.

  • Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think

  • 34:18 (Laughter)

  • 34:22 CA: OK.

  • 34:23 EM: While vehicle seems quite large and is

  • large by comparison with other rockets, I think the future spacecraft will make this

  • look like a rowboat.

  • The future spaceships will be truly enormous.

  • 34:42 CA: Why, Elon?

  • Why do we need to build a city on Mars with a million people on it in your lifetime, which

  • I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do?

  • 34:55 EM: I think it's important to have a future

  • that is inspiring and appealing.

  • I just think there have to be reasons that you get up in the morning and you want to

  • live.

  • Like, why do you want to live?

  • What's the point?

  • What inspires you?

  • What do you love about the future?

  • And if we're not out there, if the future does not include being out there among the

  • stars and being a multiplanet species, I find that it's incredibly depressing if that's

  • not the future that we're going to have.

  • 35:26 (Applause)

  • 35:31 CA: People want to position this as an either

  • or, that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now from climate to

  • poverty to, you know, you pick your issue.

  • And this feels like a distraction.

  • You shouldn't be thinking about this.

  • You should be solving what's here and now.

  • And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that with your work on sustainable

  • energy.

  • But why not just do that?

  • 35:58 EM: I think there's — I look at the future

  • from the standpoint of probabilities.

  • It's like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that

  • affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing.

  • I may introduce something new to the probability stream.

  • Sustainable energy will happen no matter what.

  • If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, it would have to happen out of necessity.

  • It's tautological.

  • If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy.

  • Eventually you will run out, and the laws of economics will drive civilization towards

  • sustainable energy, inevitably.

  • The fundamental value of a company like Tesla is the degree to which it accelerates the

  • advent of sustainable energy, faster than it would otherwise occur.

  • 37:04 So when I think, like, what is the fundamental

  • good of a company like Tesla, I would say, hopefully, if it accelerated that by a decade,

  • potentially more than a decade, that would be quite a good thing to occur.

  • That's what I consider to be the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.

  • 37:24 Then there's becoming a multiplanet species

  • and space-faring civilization.

  • This is not inevitable.

  • It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable.

  • The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable, but being a space-faring civilization

  • is definitely not inevitable.

  • If you look at the progress in space, in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon.

  • 1969.

  • Then we had the Space Shuttle.

  • The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit.

  • Then the Space Shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit.

  • So that's the trend.

  • The trend is like down to nothing.

  • People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves.

  • It does not automatically improve.

  • It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better, and actually it will,

  • I think, by itself degrade, actually.

  • You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids,

  • and they forgot how to do that.

  • And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts.

  • They forgot how to do it.

  • 38:39 CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you

  • and looking at the different things you've done, that you've got this unique double motivation

  • on everything that I find so interesting.

  • One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good.

  • The other is the desire to do something exciting.

  • And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other.

  • With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy, so you made these super sexy, exciting cars

  • to do it.

  • Solar energy, we need to get there, so we need to make these beautiful roofs.

  • We haven't even spoken about your newest thing, which we don't have time to do, but you want

  • to save humanity from bad AI, and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine

  • interface to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth.

  • And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is, yeah, we need to save humanity and have

  • a backup plan, but also we need to inspire humanity, and this is a way to inspire.

  • 39:44 EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration

  • is very much underrated, no question.

  • But I want to be clear.

  • I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.

  • That is not the — I'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad.

  • 40:03 (Applause)

  • 40:05 CA: Beautiful statement.

  • I think everyone here would agree that it is notNone of this is going to happen

  • inevitably.

  • The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff, you dream stuff that no one else would

  • dare dream, or no one else would be capable of dreaming at the level of complexity that

  • you do.

  • The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing.

  • Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.

  • 40:33 EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting

  • genuinely insane, right?

  • 40:36 (Laughter)

  • 40:39 CA: Thank you, Elon Musk.

  • That was really, really fantastic.

  • That was really fantastic.

  • 40:44 (Applause)

Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to

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Elon Musk: The Future we're building and-- Boring (Ted Talk - April 2017)

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    jwlee に公開 2017 年 05 月 02 日
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