Name: 超知性。科学か虚構か？| エロン・ムスクとその他の偉人たち (Superintelligence: Science or Fiction? | Elon Musk & Other Great Minds)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:50:58.000Z
Duration: 1 h 15 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

様態の副詞

I'm going to ask a question, but you can only answer by saying either 'yes,' 'no,' or 'it's

Is some form of superintelligence possible, Jaan?

Well, this was disappointing, we didn't find any disagreement.

Just because it's possible doesn't mean that it's actually going to happen.

So, before I asked if superintelligence was possible at all according to the laws of physics.

Now, i'm asking, will it actually happen?

Yes, and if it doesn't then something terrible has happened to prevent it.

Shucks, still haven't found any interesting disagreements.

So, you think it is going to happen, but would you actually like it to happen at some point?

Alright, so it's getting a little bit more interesting.

When I think, we had a really fascinating...

Well, we had a really fascinating discussion already in this morning's panel about when

So, that would sort of put a lower bound.

In the interest of time, I think we don't need to rehash the question of when going

But, let's ask a very related question to the one that just came up here.

Mainly, the question of well if something starts to happen, if you get some sort of

recursive self improvement or some other process whereby intelligence and machines start to

take off very very rapidly, there is always a timescale associated with this.

And there I hope we can finally find some real serious disagreements to argue about

Some people have been envisioning this scenario where it goes PHOOM and things happen in days or

Whereas, others envision that it will happen but it might take thousands of years or decades.

So, if you think of some sort of doubling time, some sort of rough timescale on which

things get dramatically better, what time scale would you guess at, Jaan?

No, no, so once we get human level AI or whatever point beyond there or a little bit before

there where things actually start taking off, what is the sort of time scale?

Any explosion, as a nerdy physicist, has some sort of time scale, right, on which it happens.

Are we talking about seconds, or years, or millennia?

I'm thinking of years, but it is important to act as if this timeline was shorter.

Yeah, I actually don't really trust my intuitions here.

I have intuitions that we are thinking of years, but I also think human level AI is

It is suddenly going to be better than human, but whether that is going to be a full intelligence

I think it partly depends on the architecture that ends up delivering human level AI.

So, this kind of neuroscience inspired AI that we seem to be building at the moment

that needs to be trained and have experience in order for it to gain knowledge that may

be, you know, on the order of a few years so possible even a decade.

Some numbers of years, but it could also be much less.

But, I wouldn't be surprised if it was much more.

Potentially days or shorter, especially if it's AI researchers designing AI researchers

Every time there is an advance in AI, we dismiss it as 'oh, well that's not really AI:' chess,

An AI, as you know, is the field of things we haven't done yet.

That will continue when we actually reach AGI.

By the time the controversy settles down, we will realize that it's been around for

Yeah, so I think we will go beyond human level capabilities in many different areas, but

So, it will be an uneven process where some areas will be far advanced very soon, already

to some extent and other might take much longer.

But, I think if it reaches a threshold where it's as smart as the smartest most inventive

human then, I mean, it really could be only a matter of days before it's smarter than

So, here we saw quite an interesting range of answers.

And this, I find is a very interesting question because for reasons that people here have

published a lot of interesting papers about the time scale makes a huge difference.

Right, if it's something that happening on the time scale of the industrial revolution,

for example, that's a lot longer than the time scale on which society can adapt and

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