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  • In 122 BC, Gaius Gracchus initiated a policy

  • that would later be known as "Bread and Circuses."

  • Roman landowners had slowly but surely

  • replaced their workers with cheap slaves from the colonies.

  • This resulted in high unemployment of the Roman population.

  • As the empire found itself in a situation

  • where production flourished but the population suffered,

  • they introduced a policy of free grain and entertainment,

  • which led to new stability.

  • Replace landowners with shareholders

  • and slaves with robots,

  • and you will see where we are headed.

  • You, my friend, probably love your job.

  • It gives you status in society,

  • an answer to the favorite small-talk question, "What do you do?"

  • Maybe you even think it gives you a purpose in life.

  • And, if nothing else, it puts some money into your bank account every month.

  • But if you had the choice:

  • take the blue pill and keep working for your money as you've always done,

  • or take the red pill and you will never have to work a day in your life again.

  • What do you do?

  • This is the question we are facing,

  • as we are increasingly automating our economy.

  • If the fact that the bots are coming for your job is news to you,

  • I suggest you watch this video by CGP Grey,

  • one of many that will bring you up to speed.

  • In the simplified economic model,

  • there are households, which are people like you,

  • businesses, which are owned by people like you,

  • and a public sector, or the state.

  • The households provide labor for the businesses

  • in exchange for an income by the businesses,

  • which they can pay to the businesses

  • in order to receive products and services of the businesses.

  • And everyone pays taxes.

  • Enter the Automated Economy.

  • The first thing we need to do to adjust this model

  • is cross out the labor connection between households and businesses,

  • because businesses will get their labor from the bots.

  • The average Joe won't be working a regular job, through no fault of his own.

  • He has a good education,

  • but there is just no field in which he can compete against the best bots out there.

  • We won't be referring to him as "unemployed,"

  • much like we don't refer to most people as "not a movie star"

  • or "not an athlete."

  • His situation will be the status quo.

  • Without an income from businesses

  • households can't pay taxes,

  • but even worse, can't spend money,

  • thus causing an eventual collapse of the entire system,

  • and we don't want that

  • because wealth creation through production and consumption

  • is largely responsible for our well-being.

  • The most widely suggested way to fix the chain at this point

  • is a Universal Basic Income (in short, UBI),

  • a state-distributed payment to cover your basic needs.

  • "Hold on there," you think.

  • "This sounds a lot like communism!"

  • It's not. Bear with me.

  • The elephant in the room is,

  • where does the state get enough money

  • to pay every citizen a monthly income?

  • In a communistic system,

  • the answer would be the state just owns all production.

  • But in a capitalistic Automated Economy,

  • not so!

  • Anyone can start and own a business,

  • and the state will have to get its share through taxes.

  • With that in mind,

  • let's go back to our model.

  • Who do you think has been

  • the greatest beneficiary of automation so far?

  • You might be inclined to say,

  • "The households! Because they get free money!"

  • But that 'free money' is really just a replacement

  • for what they've gotten before when there were still jobs to do.

  • So getting it without work sure is an advantage,

  • but they aren't the biggest winners in this new system.

  • The correct answer is: the businesses.

  • They won't have to pay any employees anymore, remember?

  • This saves them a fortune.

  • A business's largest expense by far

  • is usually people.

  • All this money is now saved.

  • That's why under the old,

  • or rather current, system

  • a gradual move towards more automation results in two things:

  • a buildup in a business's cash reserves,

  • and a growing income gap

  • as ever-more wealth is distributed

  • among fewer employees,

  • things which we can already observe today.

  • So that's why in a capitalistic Automated Economy,

  • there will simply have to be a higher tax on company profits.

  • And the entire system is financed.

  • And the best thing is,

  • if we play our cards right,

  • everybody wins!

  • Shareholders of the businesses still end up with higher profits,

  • and citizens can live on a steadily increasing UBI.

  • And it makes sense that everyone wins,

  • because the entire system has become so much more efficient.

  • We have an automated workforce that runs on electricity cost.

  • Instead of monkeys working an average 40-hour week,

  • the bots are now running the show

  • at 168 hours per week.

  • They don't get sleepy,

  • they don't need breaks,

  • and they make way fewer mistakes.

  • You can live in a nice place,

  • which is designed and built by bots,

  • and buy some of the products you like,

  • which are manufactured by bots.

  • All that you can do on your basic income.

  • And as GDP grows, meaning economic output simply increases,

  • your UBI gets higher and your property gets better.

  • That's a simplified model.

  • The complete model,

  • which includes value-added taxes and savings and trade,

  • is a story for another time.

  • But when the heat is in place, the rest of the body can work.

  • Once we know the destination,

  • we need to find a way to get there.

  • This transition isn't going to happen overnight,

  • but gradually over many years.

  • The transition to industrialization had its downsides,

  • and we should try to avoid such.

  • So we need to put in place the right mechanics for it to be smooth.

  • One such mechanism could be using automation indices.

  • This idea is still completely hypothetical,

  • but here is how it works.

  • Automation indices measure the level of automation

  • some organization has reached over time.

  • There would be two of them:

  • a business automation index (in short BAI),

  • and a national automation index (in short NAI).

  • The BAI determines how much automation

  • a particular company has reached,

  • and is used to calculate the taxes they have to pay.

  • For example, a company with a BAI of 1

  • has reached complete automation

  • and falls into the highest tax bracket

  • of a corporate base tax,

  • which is simply today's corporate tax

  • plus 100 percent of an automation tax,

  • which is around the same.

  • A company with a BAI of 0.5

  • has reached half its automation potential

  • and falls into a medium tax bracket,

  • of a corporate base tax

  • plus another 50 percent of the automation tax rate.

  • "Great!" you think.

  • "But how on Earth do you calculate, or determine, the BAI for a specific company?"

  • I know you will hate to hear this,

  • but that is also a story for another time.

  • All I can tell you is that everything that's needed to calculate the BAI

  • can already be found in a company's financial statements today.

  • What about the national automation index?

  • The NAI is calculated using

  • a weighted average of all the BAIs

  • of a country's businesses

  • to determine the automation of the national economy as a whole.

  • It is used to adjust the Universal Basic Income on a yearly basis.

  • Using such mechanics,

  • countries could pay a Universal Income starting today.

  • It would start out very low,

  • as even our most advanced economies

  • are still caught up in old structures.

  • But even at 50 dollars a month,

  • we would have set the first cornerstone for our transition.

  • And once the mechanics are in place,

  • countries should be racing to get from here to there.

  • Thanks for watching!

  • If you've watched this entire video,

  • you might think about supporting me on Patreon.

  • Creating these videos has become

  • a very time-consuming hobby of mine,

  • and any support will go directly towards improving quality and upload frequency.

  • Subtitles by the Amara.org community

In 122 BC, Gaius Gracchus initiated a policy

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自動化された経済を解説ベーシックインカムの仕組み (Automated Economy Explained: Mechanics of a Basic Income)

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    王惟惟 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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