Here is 2017 in a minute.

The bond market certainly appearses it's turning 2016,

bond yields hit a bottom and started rising very dramatically.

Can we be sure that that trend will be relied on in 2017?

Well first of all, take a look at inflation expectations,

yes, they certainly seemed to turn up with very significantly,

most obviously, in the States, but also in Germany and in Japan.

If that continues then it's difficult for bond yields to keep at their still remarkably low levels.

Second critical dimension is the behaviour of central banks.

Herewith see what the proportionate changes the three big central banks have made to their balance sheets over the last decade.

You can see that the federal reserve has now stopped trying to administer the new stimulus

that's not true of either the bank of Japan or the ECB.

The critical question is are they really going to stop or taper off their support for the bond markets.

If they don't it's still hard even now it'll be that bearish about bonds.

That's the New York Minute.