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  • Many generations have felt they've reached the pinnacle of technological advancement,

  • yet look back 100 years,

  • and the technologies we take for granted today

  • would seem like impossible magic.

  • So will there be a point

  • where we reach an actual limit of technological progress?

  • And if so, are we anywhere near that limit now?

  • Half a century ago,

  • Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev was asking similar questions

  • when he came up with a way to measure technological progress,

  • even when we have no idea exactly what it might look like.

  • Anything we do in the future will require energy,

  • so Kardashev's scale classifies potential civilizations,

  • whether alien civilizations out there in the universe or our own,

  • into three levels based on energy consumption.

  • The tiny amount of energy we currently consume

  • pales next to what we leave untapped.

  • A Type I, or planetary civilization,

  • can access all the energy resources of its home planet.

  • In our case, this is the 174,000 terawatts Earth receives from the Sun.

  • We currently only harness about 15 terawatts of it,

  • mostly by burning solar energy stored in fossil fuels.

  • To approach becoming a Type I civilization,

  • we would need to capture solar energy more directly and efficiently

  • by covering the planet with solar panels.

  • Based on the most optimistic models,

  • we might get there within just four centuries.

  • What would be next?

  • Well, the Earth only gets a sliver of the Sun's energy,

  • while the rest of its 400 yottawatts is wasted in dead space.

  • But a Type II, or stellar civilization,

  • would make the most of its home star's energy.

  • Instead of installing solar panels around a planet,

  • a Type II civilization would install them directly orbiting its star,

  • forming a theoretical structure called a Dyson sphere.

  • And the third step?

  • A Type III civilization would harness all the energy of its home galaxy.

  • But we can also think of progress in the opposite way.

  • How small can we go?

  • To that end, British cosmologist John Barrow

  • classified civilizations by the size of objects they control.

  • That ranges from mechanical structures at our own scale,

  • to the building blocks of our own biology,

  • down to unlocking atoms themselves.

  • We've currently touched the atomic level, though our control remains limited.

  • But we potentially could go much smaller in the future.

  • To get a sense of the extent to which that's true,

  • the observable universe is 26 orders of magnitude larger than a human body.

  • That means if you zoomed out by a factor of ten 26 times,

  • you'd be at the scale of the universe.

  • But to reach the minimum length scale, known as the Planck length,

  • you would need to zoom in 35 times.

  • As physicist Richard Feynman once said, "There's plenty of room at the bottom."

  • Instead of one or the other,

  • it's likely that our civilization will continue to develop

  • along both Kardashev and Barrow scales.

  • Precision on a smaller scale lets us use energy more efficiently

  • and unlocks new energy sources, like nuclear fusion,

  • or even antimatter.

  • And this increased energy lets us expand and build on a larger scale.

  • A truly advanced civilization, then,

  • would harness both stellar energy and subatomic technologies.

  • But these predictions weren't made just for us humans.

  • They double as a possible means

  • of detecting intelligent life in the universe.

  • If we find a Dyson sphere around a distant star,

  • that's a pretty compelling sign of life.

  • Or, what if, instead of a structure that passively soaked up all the star's energy,

  • like a plant,

  • an alien civilization built one that actively sucked the energy out of the star

  • like a hummingbird.

  • Frighteningly enough, we've observed super dense celestial bodies

  • about the size of a planet

  • that drain energy out of a much bigger star.

  • It would be much too premature to conclude that this is evidence of life in the universe.

  • There are also explanations for these observations

  • that don't involve alien life forms.

  • But that doesn't stop us from asking, "What if?"

Many generations have felt they've reached the pinnacle of technological advancement,

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TED-ED】技術進歩に限界はあるのか?- クレマン・ヴィダル (【TED-Ed】Is there a limit to technological progress? - Clément Vidal)

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    gotony5614.me97 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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