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  • December 13 is in-the-books here on Wall Street.

  • Here's the New York Minute.

  • It's been an extremely positive day for stock markets across the world,

  • the Dow Industrial is nearly at the 20,000 level,

  • and it's also been a good day for bond markets with bond yields falling,

  • which is all very intriguing, because as you can see from the two-year treasury yield, which is at its highest since 2010,

  • markets have completely braced for a rate hike from the Fed when the FMC beats tomorrow.

  • The big question, as you can see from the Fed funds futures market

  • is what signals we get as to what will happen after that.

  • At the moment, we have a roughly one in three chance that there's only one rate hike next year,

  • but also a one in three chance that we get as many as three rate hikes next year.

  • Listen to what Janet Yellen says about that.

  • But why the positivity?

  • Ultimately, even if people don't quite realize it,

  • it's because of China.

  • We take a look at the MSCI World Index, that covers all the main developed markets.

  • For companies that get most of their sales from China,

  • you can see they've done it terribly for a long time,

  • but turned upwards earlier this year.

  • Maybe we should be paying more attention to China than to Washington DC.

  • And that's the New York Minute.

December 13 is in-the-books here on Wall Street.

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レート上昇の予兆 (Rate rise foretold)

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    Tim に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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