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  • On November 9th, 2016, around 2:30am Eastern Time, Donald Trump won enough electoral votes

  • to become the President-elect of the United States of America.

  • Trump's victory was unprecedented, unexpected, and for many on both sides of the political

  • spectrum, unbelievable.

  • Seemingly everything we thought we knew about polling, the media, and the population itself

  • was wrong.

  • So how did Donald Trump win the 2016 Election?

  • Well, one major upset was the inability to predict which candidate each demographic would

  • prefer.

  • According to preliminary exit polls, Trump carried mostly white, male voters, while Clinton

  • carried minority female voters.

  • But a smaller proportion of white, black, hispanic, and asian-american voters cast their

  • ballots for the Democratic candidate in 2016 than in 2012, something polls were unable

  • to predict.

  • Minority voters were expected to make up for Clinton's lower performance among white

  • male voters, especially following xenophobic, and arguably racist rhetoric from Trump.

  • Clinton's inability to garner enough votes from these demographics is part of the reason

  • Clinton narrowly lost in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

  • Since 1992 these states have been Democratic presidential strongholds, but they have large

  • populations of rural and working class white voters, who make up a majority of Trump's

  • base.

  • In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in Wisconsin by seven points, whereas this year,

  • Clinton lost by just a single point.

  • Clinton's problem in 2016 was that she simply did not gather the democratic support she

  • needed, while Trump's base stayed consistent.

  • Between 2012 and 2016 nearly an identical number of Wisconsin voters, 1.4 million, voted

  • Republican, while roughly a quarter of a million fewer people voted Democrat.

  •  When more people vote, Democrats tend to win, and in this election, more people didn't

  • vote Democrat.

  • In 2008, nearly ten million more voted democrat than Republican, in 2012 that number was down

  • to six million, and in 2016 the two parties had nearly the same number of voters, and

  • Clinton even won the popular vote by about a quarter of a million.

  • All the while, Republican votes have remained consistent throughout all three elections.

  • It may be more accurate to say that Trump didn't win this election, so much as Clinton

  • lost it.

  • One of the big reasons proposed for this low Democratic turnout is that Clinton simply

  • did not widely appeal to Democrat voters following the defeat of Bernie Sanders.

  • Many of those who did not support her in the primaries reported feeling coerced into voting

  • for her on the basis that she simply wasn't Trump.

  • States where Sanders won the primary, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, didn't see

  • the support Clinton needed to win in the general election.

  •  Many of the same rural, working class voters who cast their vote for Sanders may have been

  • more inclined to vote for any outsider candidate rather than necessarily any Democrat.

  • Those who voted for Bernie Sanders: white men, and millennials, went for Trump at higher

  • rates than in previous elections.

  • Exit polls even show that more Democrats voted for Trump than Republicans voted Clinton.

  • And while Clinton got more votes overall from minorities, millennials, and those making

  • under $50,000 annually Trump was able to secure a larger portion of those demographics than

  • in previous elections.

  • The 2016 election was almost marked by extreme voter apathy, despite the volume of rhetoric

  • in the lead up.

  • According to some reports, voter turnout was the lowest it has been since the 2000 election

  • with nearly half of all eligible voters abstaining.

  • This election has proved wrong nearly every political model used to predict the winner.

  • Hillary Clinton put up a strong campaign, raised 1.3 billion dollars, and had some of

  • the best media organization in history.

  • But in the face of a growing global populist movement, many have pointed to this election

  • as a referendum on change.

  • Unlike Obama, Clinton was unable to win over the support she needed, despite gaining more

  • votes overall.

  • Ultimately, this election reflects a growing voice in the United States, whether it be

  • those disillusioned with the political system, those who feel disenfranchised within their

  • own party, and even the alt-right, which has devastated the GOP and longtime members such

  • as the Bush family.

  • But it also shows a change in the way presidential campaigns can be run.

  • Although Trump's win is a surprise, it's the reality we all now live in.

  • So why did most polls show that will end up winning? As this reality sets in for the U.S. and beyond, millions are still shocked and asking how

  • this year's election predictions were so off.

  • Should we really be trusting polls as much as we have?

  • Why has polling accuracy declined so much?

  • Find out more in this video.

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  • every day.

On November 9th, 2016, around 2:30am Eastern Time, Donald Trump won enough electoral votes


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ドナルド・トランプ氏がアメリカの選挙に勝った経緯を壊す (Breaking Down How Donald Trump Won The U.S. Election)

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    羅紹桀 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日