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  • Coming up on Market to Market -- Merger mania

  • prompts a summons from Washington.

  • The Secretary spends a little time in the hot

  • seat.

  • And heavy rain stops harvest in its tracks.

  • Those stories and market analysis with Sue Martin,

  • next.

  • Funding for Market to Market is provided by

  • Grinnell Mutual.

  • You think differently about a customer when you

  • stand in the middle of his dreams.

  • We work to make sure you get covered right.

  • Grinnell Mutual -- a policy of working

  • together.

  • Information on finding an agent near you is

  • available at grinnellmutual.com.

  • This is the Friday, September 23 edition of

  • Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural

  • America.

  • Hello, I'm Mike Pearson.

  • Harvest machinery has been temporarily sidelined in

  • some parts of the grain belt but financial

  • planning for next season has already begun.

  • Like predictions of record crops, rural America waits

  • for economic answers in a money lending season of

  • uncertainty.

  • -- With housing starts down 5.8 percent in August

  • - and the inflation rate languishing below 2

  • percent - the Federal Reserve Board declined to

  • raise lending rates.

  • The result leaves many speculating what the near

  • future holds.

  • No change was seen as good news by Wall Street as the

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week

  • on an up-tick.

  • Placing the anticipated shake-up over lending

  • rates on hold shifted attention to fallout from

  • agricultural mergers.

  • Recently, the Canadian companies Potash

  • Corporation and Agrium announced they were

  • combining forces to create the largest fertilizer

  • company in the world.

  • That marriage only amplified concerns over

  • consolidation and was among the reasons several

  • Titans of Agriculture were requested to appear before

  • the Senate Judiciary Committee.

  • Paul Yeager reports.

  • Representatives from five of the six biggest

  • agriculture companies appeared together on

  • Capitol Hill this week.

  • The leaders were asked about the big topics of

  • competition, jobs, and innovation.

  • The "Big Six" of biotech seed would become the "Big

  • 4" if regulators approve Bayer's $66 billion buyout

  • of Monsanto, China National Chemical or Chem

  • China's $43 billion purchase of Syngenta and a

  • $59 billion deal between Dow and DuPont Pioneer.

  • James C.

  • Collins: "Bringing together the innovative

  • engines of DuPont and Dow into one company, fully

  • focused on agriculture, allows us to expand the

  • choices and the competitive price values

  • that farmers demand."

  • Robb Fraley: "We're witnessing a new era in

  • agriculture that's a result of the advances in

  • biology and data science.

  • Silicon Valley is digitizing farming around

  • the world, and breakthroughs like gene

  • editing are opening up a whole new world of

  • possibilities in plant biology."

  • Tim Hassinger: "Combing our R and D capabilities

  • will enhance our ability to innovate and create

  • values for farmers.

  • An innovation driven company creates

  • competition."

  • Jim Blome: "We expect to advance our digital

  • farming capabilities and strengthen our focus on

  • new product development across seeds, traits and

  • crop protection."

  • Critics contend the biggest three remaining

  • companies would control 80 percent of the corn seed

  • sales and 70 percent of the global pesticide

  • market.

  • Roger Johnson: "The damaging consolidation is

  • occurring at a time when farmers are struggling

  • with depressed profitability after seeing

  • an approximate 50% decline in most commodity prices

  • over the past three years.

  • Clearly the nation's anti-trust enforcement has

  • failed farmers and consumers."

  • Diana Moss: "Any claims that the deal will simply

  • package complimentary assets should be viewed

  • with some skepticism.

  • The companies own documents indicate their

  • own R and D pipelines compete head to head with

  • overlaps in R and D for traits, seeds and crop

  • protection.

  • Much like in pharmaceuticals,

  • maintaining competition in standalone parallel R and

  • D ensures strong incentives to continue to

  • innovate."

  • Sen.

  • Grassley: "To me, it looks like this consolidation

  • wave has become a tsunami."

  • Iowa Senator and committee chair Charles Grassley

  • cited data from Iowa State University revealing

  • collective cost of seed, chemicals and fertilizer

  • for an acre of soybeans has gone up 94 percent

  • over the last 20 years.

  • Grassley, also a farmer, said the collective

  • industry has produced greater innovations and

  • yields, but questioned the cost.

  • Sen.

  • Charles Grassley: "However, when does the

  • size of companies and concentration in the

  • market reach the tipping point, so much that a

  • market becomes anti-competitive?"

  • Cotton farmers also could be faced with steep price

  • increases on seed if a recent Texas A&M study

  • holds true.

  • The research revealed a possible 18 percent hike

  • if the mergers move forward while corn and

  • soybean seed prices would increase around 2 percent.

  • For Market to Market, I'm Paul Yeager.

  • Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack met with the

  • Senate Agriculture Committee this week for an

  • annual checkup of sorts.

  • The topics discussed ranged from budgets to

  • water quality.

  • Colleen Bradford Krantz explains.

  • Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, wrapping up

  • what is expected to be his final months of an 8-year

  • stretch on the Obama administration cabinet,

  • urged Senate leaders this week to do a better job of

  • studying the needs of the nation's shrinking pool of

  • farmers before fixating on budget cuts.

  • Tom Vilsack: "If you look at every hot spot in the

  • world today, I think most, if not all of them, do not

  • have a functioning agricultural economy and

  • have a lot of hungry people.

  • So if we are serious about protecting our own people,

  • if we are serious about making sure the world is a

  • safer and better place for our kids and grandkids,

  • then we have to understand the role agriculture in

  • this country and agriculture around the

  • world will play in providing that level of

  • security."

  • Several senators, while praising Vilsack's tenure,

  • said the nation's farmers are growing increasingly

  • leery of governmental involvement in their

  • lives, particularly when it comes to the

  • Environmental Protection Agency.

  • Sen.

  • Thom Tillis: "The issue that comes up every single

  • time I meet with these farmers is the uncertainty

  • created by regulation - either the burden by

  • existing regulations or the threat of other

  • regulations that could be very harmful to the

  • industry."

  • Senator Pat Roberts, the chair of the Senate

  • Agriculture Committee, said new EPA rules

  • defining the "waters of the U.S."

  • under the Clean Water Act had an exemption for

  • "common farming practices" but the sentence was

  • followed by 88 pages of exceptions, explanations

  • and definitions.

  • Sen.

  • Pat Roberts: "That's why a lot of folks that I

  • represent feel ruled not governed.

  • And they get really upset."

  • While Vilsack said he won't speak on behalf of

  • the EPA, he has encouraged the agency to meet the

  • farmers whose livelihoods may be affected by their

  • rules.

  • Tom Vilsack: "We don't define the problem before

  • we define the solution, and we don't educate

  • people about what we are trying to do before we do

  • it.

  • So there is a natural reaction."

  • For Market to Market, I'm Colleen Bradford Krantz.

  • Harvest is underway in earnest across the

  • Midwest.

  • Most states are on track to bring-in the projected

  • record 15.1 billion bushels of corn and 4.2

  • billion bushels of soybeans.

  • However, field work in some regions of the upper

  • Midwest was stopped in its tracks.

  • It's a soggy start to fall for several Midwestern

  • states, where heavy rain has flooded homes, closed

  • major highways and stranded motorists in

  • Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa after nearly a foot

  • of rain fell in several location of the Tri-State

  • area.

  • The rains couldn't have come at a more inopportune

  • time.

  • Combines will be delayed in several dozen upper

  • grain belt counties as farmers had just begun

  • what is expected to be a record large crop.

  • A state of emergency was declared by Gov.

  • Scott Walker for 13 western Wisconsin counties

  • that have been drenched by torrential rains since

  • Wednesday.

  • The Wisconsin National Guard is providing

  • assistance to those affected by the disaster

  • which has caused widespread flooding and

  • mudslides in the region, including one death.

  • Volunteer crews in several southern Minnesota towns

  • were building sandbag walls to hold back rising

  • floodwaters.

  • Residents in Saint Clair received 14 inches of rain

  • in 48 hours.

  • Sections of several area roads were washed away in

  • the deluge.

  • And some of the residents in the northeast Iowa town

  • of Greene were ordered to leave as the nearby Shell

  • Rock River roared out of its banks.

  • About 60 homes in the northeast Iowa town took

  • on waist-deep flood waters.

  • Interview: The weekend forecast is for more rain

  • in the region, so fields that escaped the first

  • round of moisture may find themselves moist by

  • Monday.

  • For Market to Market, I'm Peter Tubbs Next, the

  • Market to Market report.

  • Inclement weather across all of the Americas and a

  • weaker dollar laid the groundwork for volatility

  • in the commodity markets.

  • For the week, December wheat was flat and the

  • nearby corn contract, despite a midweek move

  • higher, also finished flat.

  • Strong soybean sales, strong export sales were

  • not enough to outweigh higher yields as the

  • October soybean contract lost 11 cents.

  • October meal declined $10.40 per ton.

  • In the softs, December cotton added $2.79 per

  • hundredweight.

  • Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk

  • futures lost 50 cents.

  • The livestock sector was under pressure as the

  • October cattle contract fell 60 cents.

  • October feeders lost 57 cents.

  • And the October lean hog contract dropped $1.48.

  • In the currency markets, the U.S.

  • Dollar Index lost 66 cents.

  • Crude oil advanced 86 cents per barrel.

  • Gold rose $31.50 per ounce.

  • And the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index gained

  • more than 2 points to finish the week at 351.20.

  • Pearson: Here now to lend us her insight on these

  • and other trends is one of our regular market

  • analysts, Sue Martin.

  • Sue, welcome back.

  • Martin: Thank you, Mike.

  • Pearson: This has been a week of stability in the

  • wheat markets.

  • We saw some export news come out.

  • Can you talk about where you see this wheat market

  • headed?

  • Martin: Well, I think the wheat market is very

  • oversold, very cheap, it may still move sideways

  • for a little bit longer but all in all the funds

  • are heavy short, near record short and so what I

  • find is when a market moves sideways for a long

  • period of time in a market that is loaded short as

  • this one is, it's usually not advantageous to be too

  • willing to be sellers.

  • So I'd either stand aside of it, I would not be

  • selling cash sales, or if I did I'd find a way to

  • re-own it, the problem is the basis is so horribly

  • wide how can you even do it?

  • So my thought is go ahead and save it, keep it in

  • the bins if you have room and then maybe just put

  • some flooring under it with puts or something.

  • I don't even think it's worth putting floors under

  • it, if you want the truth, because what you would put

  • into puts, you can say that's your risk on the

  • upside, or downside I guess.

  • And we had India this week lower their export duty,

  • or import duty I should say, down from 25% to 10%.

  • Their demand is growing.

  • They're going to outstrip what they produce and

  • they're a good producer, huge users of wheat.

  • And in the meantime you've got Egypt who managed to

  • get some funding from the IMF, ironically, about the

  • time now they're willing to take a move back to the

  • international standard of 0.05% -- Pearson: Okay,

  • so that was my next question.

  • I know they had a tender and they had several

  • offers but they dropped that zero ergot role.

  • Martin: Yes, they did, they dropped it and moved

  • it back to the international standard.

  • I believe, and of course far be it for me to ever

  • think badly of anyone, but I believe that Egypt, one,

  • they're the world's largest importer of wheat.

  • Two, they're financially strapped.

  • And three, they know they don't dare run out of

  • wheat because if they do they remember what

  • happened to the previous president.

  • So I think that when they, they've been playing a

  • game.

  • I think they were using the ergot and that zero

  • tolerance as an excuse that if they started to

  • get a shipment in all of a sudden the price was

  • cheaper than what they originally bought, well

  • let's just refuse it.

  • And I think that's been a game and all of a sudden

  • world exporters, it would be nothing to have 14, 15

  • offers on a tender and they haven't been getting

  • that.

  • I think the last one was 4 even when they had dropped

  • the rating of ergot tolerance.

  • So I think what's happening is they're

  • finally realizing, and of course IMF stepped up and

  • kind of helped them with some funding.

  • So now the playing field should be a little better.

  • Pearson: And now we finally it looks like are

  • starting to maybe see a light at the end of this

  • tunnel here in the wheat market.

  • And now Russia is projected to drop their

  • export tariff on wheat.

  • Is that going to be a significant headwind as we

  • head into this next week or two?

  • Martin: Well, I think so.

  • Russia is going to continue to be

  • competitive.

  • But usually the Black Sea every year is competitive

  • for a while, but they don't last super long and

  • then they're out of the way.

  • We all know that global stocks are huge and some

  • would say burdensome.

  • But the problem is, is that a major percentage of

  • those global stocks are poor quality, feed

  • quality, poor quality and you need food.

  • And therefore when you have a crop that is feed

  • quality or poor quality it tends to disappear faster

  • because it takes more of it to find, to be able to

  • reach the objectives you have.

  • And I believe the U.S.

  • is in a good spot because we have good quality

  • wheat.

  • They're going to buy U.S.

  • wheat to blend off over in Europe and then they'll

  • send.

  • One thing though, we did see France load ships out

  • this week that should arrive on the East Coast

  • by October 2nd coming out of France for feed wheat.

  • That's kind of interesting.

  • Pearson: So we're importing feed wheat even

  • as we sit on 1.1 billion bushels here.

  • Martin: Exactly, but that's going to change

  • because I think if you look at a year ago the

  • Eastern Corn Belt dealt with a lot of issues.

  • This year they're going to have a crop and so that

  • will start to move eastward and so I think

  • that will solve that issue down the road.

  • Pearson: Now, you do work with a lot of producers,

  • as you look at this corn crop, Sue, have you been

  • hearing harvest reports?

  • Is this going to be, in your opinion, a national

  • record average yield?

  • Martin: Well, I think so.

  • I think we're going to have a good crop, it's

  • going to be a big crop.

  • I do think it's variable.

  • But boy I'm hearing yields all over the place.

  • But one thing that stood out to me this last week,

  • and we were talking about it before I came on the

  • show, was that even in Indiana and to Ohio where

  • a year ago they really had issues with too much rain,

  • this year they were drier and the yields are down

  • from what they, if you've gone back to 2014 or

  • whatever, way down but better than a year ago

  • maybe by 30, 40, 50 bushel to the acre.

  • So when it's bad, but it's still better than a year

  • ago, so I'm wondering how that plays into the mix.

  • The other side of the coin is there's a lot of stalk

  • rot out there and in Central Illinois we're

  • hearing reports of diplodia and even in parts

  • of Minnesota and what have you and I'm sure with all

  • the rain we've been getting this week that

  • probably isn't helping the cause at all.

  • Pearson: And diplodia, for those who are not familiar

  • with the term, is basically the kernel

  • sprouting.

  • Martin: That's right, and mold, it's a white mold.

  • And my understanding is, Bob Straight is an

  • agronomist, and my understanding he is

  • recommending drying that corn down, if you've got

  • diplodia drying it down to 13% before you put it in

  • your bins.

  • Pearson: Okay.

  • So now if I'm looking at additional drying costs,

  • I'm looking at this market that can't really seem to

  • find some footing here, how do I handle my

  • marketing as I look out in the fourth quarter of

  • 2016, Sue, for corn?

  • Martin: Well, here's the interesting thing.

  • I think that, we know that corn struck a low here at

  • the end of August, the first day of September,

  • right in there.

  • And there was timing there for a cycle low.

  • Corn and beans both are dealing with an 84 year

  • cycle bottom that is in the process.

  • And our second window, the first window was March 2nd

  • and we got a good bottom, a V bottom, there was a

  • second window, which was right at the end of August

  • to about the 6th to the 11th of September.

  • There is one more that comes in late December,

  • January.

  • And we think by the middle of January that's done.

  • And so I think that we're dealing with this, so what

  • I see happening here is I think the commercial is a

  • little concerned, one because harvest is

  • starting to get a little delayed in Iowa, not to

  • mention on beans too, but the commercial knows that

  • the farmer is going to probably move beans and

  • save his room for his corn and store the corn.

  • And once that corn goes in the bins they aren't going

  • to turn around and take it right back out.

  • So they're going to have to bid if they want it

  • right now.

  • So I could see the market holding a little better

  • right now and maybe moving up into October, maybe

  • November and then we turn down as we go towards the

  • end of the year and roll the year over as farmers

  • are working with bankers, getting their year-end

  • books lined up and whatever.

  • I think farmers start to move some grain to pay off

  • some bills and what have you and in the meantime

  • that maybe gives us incentive to turn around

  • and drop right back down as we roll the year over.

  • Pearson: Okay.

  • So on the upside as we get here through harvest into

  • November, are you seeing $3.60, $3.70, $4?

  • What's the top end -- Martin: Well, I don't see

  • $4.

  • There is a head, technically a head and

  • shoulders bottom, nicely based head and shoulders

  • bottom on corn.

  • And that would project to the upper $3.60s, low

  • $3.70s.

  • But, as I had a gentleman one time on a blog tell

  • me, a head and shoulders in corn is only accurate

  • about 40% of the time.

  • I can't prove that, but we'll see.

  • But at the moment I see a market that is probably

  • more willing to move sideways, maybe you'll get

  • that little lift, if you do probably be willing to

  • sell some there because I think you're going to get

  • another chance as we roll the year over to come back

  • and buy it again.

  • Pearson: Get some reownership.

  • Now let's take a look at this soybean market.

  • We're down 11 cents in the November bean contract,

  • Sue, As you mentioned harvest is being delayed

  • in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, parts of

  • Illinois.

  • Where does this lead us into next week?

  • Martin: Well, it was interesting because we

  • noticed this week, yesterday on Thursday I

  • should say, the market ignored bullish news.

  • You had sales to China, it ignored that.

  • You have all this rain, it ignored that.

  • The market is like in a little bit of denial but

  • it's also hearing a lot of these yields coming out

  • that where the combining is going, dry land beans

  • anywhere from 45 to 72 all good yields for dry land

  • beans in Nebraska, irrigated beans 80s,

  • Indiana 64 to 80s, upper 80s and Illinois same way.

  • I have heard some beans out of Illinois that are

  • coming out where they had sudden death and those

  • bean yields are a little disappointing, after you

  • hear all the others, but still maybe a little

  • respectable considering around 50s, mid-50s.

  • So that's not so bad.

  • But one thing I will say is when you look at the

  • state of Iowa a good third of the state having major

  • issues and they aren't going to be in the field

  • for at least a couple of weeks or at least a week

  • and a half, two weeks and that's if everything dries

  • off.

  • The forecast for October is kind of up in the air,

  • it could be another wet month.

  • And then you look at Minnesota, the lower third

  • of Minnesota, and I've got to tell you, that's some

  • of the best land in Minnesota.

  • And then you look at Wisconsin, same situation.

  • I think we have to, I think the market is a

  • little bit in denial because they're listening

  • to these yields, but as we go forward I think we're

  • going to start hearing some poorer yields.

  • And I also think we have to keep one thing in mind,

  • Argentina when they were harvesting went through a

  • similar situation where they caught way too much

  • rain and what happened to the production in that

  • country, it went south.

  • Why wouldn't we be the same?

  • Pearson: So we could get that news trickle out here

  • as harvest progresses and maybe provide a lift.

  • Martin: I think so.

  • Pearson: Alright.

  • Well now, Sue, as we take a look at the livestock

  • markets, on the cattle side this was a fairly big

  • week in terms of news.

  • We had China agree to begin accepting U.S.

  • beef and we also had a cattle on feed report come

  • out on Friday.

  • We've got a question here from one of our Twitter

  • followers, this is from John, @4720john.

  • He wants to know, how will the opening of the beef

  • market to the Chinese have an effect on our markets?

  • And how long will it take?

  • Martin: Well, I don't know how long it's going to be,

  • they haven't really said.

  • I do think that was part of an in some ways maybe

  • trying to smooth the wound of the U.S.

  • filing a complaint to WTO over them for subsidizing

  • their farmers.

  • Of course then today they turn around and raise the,

  • they don't ban imports of DDGs, they just raise the

  • ante of what it costs, the import duties to --

  • Pearson: Added a 38% tariff?

  • Martin: 33.8.

  • Pearson: 33.8% tariff on DDGs.

  • Martin: So but I think that import tariff being

  • raised was more to do with they haven't sold hardly

  • any of that crappy corn that they have.

  • It is poor, poor quality corn and I think they're

  • trying to dissuade the end user or the processor from

  • importing corn so that they can maybe try to

  • still get rid of some of that corn.

  • But I think that the beef, I think that we see it

  • happen, I think it's a good thing down the road,

  • it's just not here today.

  • Pearson: Got a lot of negotiations left.

  • Martin: We do.

  • And the one thing we have to keep in mind is October

  • is pork month so you're going to have some

  • featuring of pork.

  • We might see it next week.

  • You're going to have, you've got a ton of

  • poultry.

  • You go in the grocery store and the retailer

  • just really hasn't been real good about lowering

  • the price of beef, especially hamburger.

  • And so I think when we look at the beef market, I

  • think that first off weights coming back up,

  • for the past three weeks now we've seen weights

  • start to come up, which was a little bit of a

  • surprise.

  • In the north though I've also heard where there's

  • starting to be some heavier cattle and it's

  • because of all this corn that's sitting around,

  • trying to feed it off through the cattle.

  • And so I guess that's typical of a year like

  • this.

  • But I think that when I look at the cattle market

  • the feeder market was, well even the fats was

  • wild today.

  • They beat the market to death and then they turned

  • around and brought it all back and closed everything

  • higher.

  • At the end of the day October feeders are only

  • down about $1.70 from the high of the week.

  • Pearson: Does that lend some excitement to you as

  • we look into next week?

  • Are we starting to turn this cattle complex

  • around?

  • Martin: Well, it was impressive because it now

  • leaves a big spike low on the chart.

  • And of course it's a low of higher degree too.

  • Who would have thought?

  • We made higher highs for the move on feeders on

  • Thursday and then turned around and we put a

  • secondary higher but close to the lows and we came

  • out of it.

  • And the cattle on feed report was sort of ho-hum

  • in a way, 101% on feed but that's the fifth month now

  • consecutively where we showed increase of cattle

  • over a year ago.

  • And then on top of it we had placements at 115%,

  • trade was looking for 113%, that should be

  • negative to the deferreds and then the marketings

  • was at 116.8%, 117% if they rounded it off, it

  • came out at 118%, that would say yes, we are

  • pulling cattle ahead.

  • So there was some good news up front, maybe a

  • little negative, but for guys who have got cattle

  • that will be in December, February, something like

  • that, why not just instead of hedging those cattle

  • because they're too cheap, why not go, if you're so

  • concerned about prices, why not go out and sell

  • the spring feeders.

  • Pearson: Alright, Sue, 30 seconds left.

  • I'm going to do this to you again.

  • Hogs lower or higher on the next week?

  • Martin: Oh, good grief.

  • Well they're going to feature pork but you've

  • got to remember pork production 8% higher than

  • a year ago.

  • Pearson: We've got numbers.

  • Will we get the demand?

  • Martin: The largest weekly kill that you had since

  • 2007, December of 2007.

  • Weights are up three pounds.

  • Pearson: It's a coin toss.

  • Martin: Well, it is, but yet the cattle inventory

  • showed supplies down so that shows the retailers

  • moving it.

  • Pearson: Well we'll pick this up in the Market

  • Plus.

  • Thank you, Sue.

  • That wraps up the broadcast portion of

  • Market to Market.

  • But as I mentioned, Sue and I will keep the market

  • conversation going including answering more

  • of your questions during Market Plus available on

  • our website.

  • Are you wondering about our coverage of antibiotic

  • labeling?

  • Go behind the scenes with the latest edition of the

  • MtoM podcast.

  • You'll find it wherever you get podcasts by

  • searing M-t-o-M.

  • And join us again next week when we explore how

  • heritage breed farmers are producing pork with a

  • purpose.

  • So until then, thanks for watching.

  • I'm Mike Pearson.

  • Have a great week.

  • ♪♪

  • Market to Market is a production of Iowa

  • Public Television which is solely responsible for its

  • content.

  • Funding for Market to Market is provided by

  • Grinnell Mutual.

  • You think differently about a customer when you

  • stand in the middle of his dreams.

  • We work to make sure you get covered right.

  • Grinnell Mutual -- a policy of working

  • together.

  • Information on finding an agent near you is

  • available at grinnellmutual.com.

Coming up on Market to Market -- Merger mania

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B1 中級

市場から市場へ(2016年9月23日 (Market to Market (September 23, 2016))

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    哈維 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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