字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント Coming up on Market to Market -- Merger mania prompts a summons from Washington. The Secretary spends a little time in the hot seat. And heavy rain stops harvest in its tracks. Those stories and market analysis with Sue Martin, next. Funding for Market to Market is provided by Grinnell Mutual. You think differently about a customer when you stand in the middle of his dreams. We work to make sure you get covered right. Grinnell Mutual -- a policy of working together. Information on finding an agent near you is available at grinnellmutual.com. This is the Friday, September 23 edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America. Hello, I'm Mike Pearson. Harvest machinery has been temporarily sidelined in some parts of the grain belt but financial planning for next season has already begun. Like predictions of record crops, rural America waits for economic answers in a money lending season of uncertainty. -- With housing starts down 5.8 percent in August - and the inflation rate languishing below 2 percent - the Federal Reserve Board declined to raise lending rates. The result leaves many speculating what the near future holds. No change was seen as good news by Wall Street as the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week on an up-tick. Placing the anticipated shake-up over lending rates on hold shifted attention to fallout from agricultural mergers. Recently, the Canadian companies Potash Corporation and Agrium announced they were combining forces to create the largest fertilizer company in the world. That marriage only amplified concerns over consolidation and was among the reasons several Titans of Agriculture were requested to appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Paul Yeager reports. Representatives from five of the six biggest agriculture companies appeared together on Capitol Hill this week. The leaders were asked about the big topics of competition, jobs, and innovation. The "Big Six" of biotech seed would become the "Big 4" if regulators approve Bayer's $66 billion buyout of Monsanto, China National Chemical or Chem China's $43 billion purchase of Syngenta and a $59 billion deal between Dow and DuPont Pioneer. James C. Collins: "Bringing together the innovative engines of DuPont and Dow into one company, fully focused on agriculture, allows us to expand the choices and the competitive price values that farmers demand." Robb Fraley: "We're witnessing a new era in agriculture that's a result of the advances in biology and data science. Silicon Valley is digitizing farming around the world, and breakthroughs like gene editing are opening up a whole new world of possibilities in plant biology." Tim Hassinger: "Combing our R and D capabilities will enhance our ability to innovate and create values for farmers. An innovation driven company creates competition." Jim Blome: "We expect to advance our digital farming capabilities and strengthen our focus on new product development across seeds, traits and crop protection." Critics contend the biggest three remaining companies would control 80 percent of the corn seed sales and 70 percent of the global pesticide market. Roger Johnson: "The damaging consolidation is occurring at a time when farmers are struggling with depressed profitability after seeing an approximate 50% decline in most commodity prices over the past three years. Clearly the nation's anti-trust enforcement has failed farmers and consumers." Diana Moss: "Any claims that the deal will simply package complimentary assets should be viewed with some skepticism. The companies own documents indicate their own R and D pipelines compete head to head with overlaps in R and D for traits, seeds and crop protection. Much like in pharmaceuticals, maintaining competition in standalone parallel R and D ensures strong incentives to continue to innovate." Sen. Grassley: "To me, it looks like this consolidation wave has become a tsunami." Iowa Senator and committee chair Charles Grassley cited data from Iowa State University revealing collective cost of seed, chemicals and fertilizer for an acre of soybeans has gone up 94 percent over the last 20 years. Grassley, also a farmer, said the collective industry has produced greater innovations and yields, but questioned the cost. Sen. Charles Grassley: "However, when does the size of companies and concentration in the market reach the tipping point, so much that a market becomes anti-competitive?" Cotton farmers also could be faced with steep price increases on seed if a recent Texas A&M study holds true. The research revealed a possible 18 percent hike if the mergers move forward while corn and soybean seed prices would increase around 2 percent. For Market to Market, I'm Paul Yeager. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack met with the Senate Agriculture Committee this week for an annual checkup of sorts. The topics discussed ranged from budgets to water quality. Colleen Bradford Krantz explains. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, wrapping up what is expected to be his final months of an 8-year stretch on the Obama administration cabinet, urged Senate leaders this week to do a better job of studying the needs of the nation's shrinking pool of farmers before fixating on budget cuts. Tom Vilsack: "If you look at every hot spot in the world today, I think most, if not all of them, do not have a functioning agricultural economy and have a lot of hungry people. So if we are serious about protecting our own people, if we are serious about making sure the world is a safer and better place for our kids and grandkids, then we have to understand the role agriculture in this country and agriculture around the world will play in providing that level of security." Several senators, while praising Vilsack's tenure, said the nation's farmers are growing increasingly leery of governmental involvement in their lives, particularly when it comes to the Environmental Protection Agency. Sen. Thom Tillis: "The issue that comes up every single time I meet with these farmers is the uncertainty created by regulation - either the burden by existing regulations or the threat of other regulations that could be very harmful to the industry." Senator Pat Roberts, the chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, said new EPA rules defining the "waters of the U.S." under the Clean Water Act had an exemption for "common farming practices" but the sentence was followed by 88 pages of exceptions, explanations and definitions. Sen. Pat Roberts: "That's why a lot of folks that I represent feel ruled not governed. And they get really upset." While Vilsack said he won't speak on behalf of the EPA, he has encouraged the agency to meet the farmers whose livelihoods may be affected by their rules. Tom Vilsack: "We don't define the problem before we define the solution, and we don't educate people about what we are trying to do before we do it. So there is a natural reaction." For Market to Market, I'm Colleen Bradford Krantz. Harvest is underway in earnest across the Midwest. Most states are on track to bring-in the projected record 15.1 billion bushels of corn and 4.2 billion bushels of soybeans. However, field work in some regions of the upper Midwest was stopped in its tracks. It's a soggy start to fall for several Midwestern states, where heavy rain has flooded homes, closed major highways and stranded motorists in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa after nearly a foot of rain fell in several location of the Tri-State area. The rains couldn't have come at a more inopportune time. Combines will be delayed in several dozen upper grain belt counties as farmers had just begun what is expected to be a record large crop. A state of emergency was declared by Gov. Scott Walker for 13 western Wisconsin counties that have been drenched by torrential rains since Wednesday. The Wisconsin National Guard is providing assistance to those affected by the disaster which has caused widespread flooding and mudslides in the region, including one death. Volunteer crews in several southern Minnesota towns were building sandbag walls to hold back rising floodwaters. Residents in Saint Clair received 14 inches of rain in 48 hours. Sections of several area roads were washed away in the deluge. And some of the residents in the northeast Iowa town of Greene were ordered to leave as the nearby Shell Rock River roared out of its banks. About 60 homes in the northeast Iowa town took on waist-deep flood waters. Interview: The weekend forecast is for more rain in the region, so fields that escaped the first round of moisture may find themselves moist by Monday. For Market to Market, I'm Peter Tubbs Next, the Market to Market report. Inclement weather across all of the Americas and a weaker dollar laid the groundwork for volatility in the commodity markets. For the week, December wheat was flat and the nearby corn contract, despite a midweek move higher, also finished flat. Strong soybean sales, strong export sales were not enough to outweigh higher yields as the October soybean contract lost 11 cents. October meal declined $10.40 per ton. In the softs, December cotton added $2.79 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures lost 50 cents. The livestock sector was under pressure as the October cattle contract fell 60 cents. October feeders lost 57 cents. And the October lean hog contract dropped $1.48. In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index lost 66 cents. Crude oil advanced 86 cents per barrel. Gold rose $31.50 per ounce. And the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index gained more than 2 points to finish the week at 351.20. Pearson: Here now to lend us her insight on these and other trends is one of our regular market analysts, Sue Martin. Sue, welcome back. Martin: Thank you, Mike. Pearson: This has been a week of stability in the wheat markets. We saw some export news come out. Can you talk about where you see this wheat market headed? Martin: Well, I think the wheat market is very oversold, very cheap, it may still move sideways for a little bit longer but all in all the funds are heavy short, near record short and so what I find is when a market moves sideways for a long period of time in a market that is loaded short as this one is, it's usually not advantageous to be too willing to be sellers. So I'd either stand aside of it, I would not be selling cash sales, or if I did I'd find a way to re-own it, the problem is the basis is so horribly wide how can you even do it? So my thought is go ahead and save it, keep it in the bins if you have room and then maybe just put some flooring under it with puts or something. I don't even think it's worth putting floors under it, if you want the truth, because what you would put into puts, you can say that's your risk on the upside, or downside I guess. And we had India this week lower their export duty, or import duty I should say, down from 25% to 10%. Their demand is growing. They're going to outstrip what they produce and they're a good producer, huge users of wheat. And in the meantime you've got Egypt who managed to get some funding from the IMF, ironically, about the time now they're willing to take a move back to the international standard of 0.05% -- Pearson: Okay, so that was my next question. I know they had a tender and they had several offers but they dropped that zero ergot role. Martin: Yes, they did, they dropped it and moved it back to the international standard. I believe, and of course far be it for me to ever think badly of anyone, but I believe that Egypt, one, they're the world's largest importer of wheat. Two, they're financially strapped. And three, they know they don't dare run out of wheat because if they do they remember what happened to the previous president. So I think that when they, they've been playing a game. I think they were using the ergot and that zero tolerance as an excuse that if they started to get a shipment in all of a sudden the price was cheaper than what they originally bought, well let's just refuse it. And I think that's been a game and all of a sudden world exporters, it would be nothing to have 14, 15 offers on a tender and they haven't been getting that. I think the last one was 4 even when they had dropped the rating of ergot tolerance. So I think what's happening is they're finally realizing, and of course IMF stepped up and kind of helped them with some funding. So now the playing field should be a little better. Pearson: And now we finally it looks like are starting to maybe see a light at the end of this tunnel here in the wheat market. And now Russia is projected to drop their export tariff on wheat. Is that going to be a significant headwind as we head into this next week or two? Martin: Well, I think so. Russia is going to continue to be competitive. But usually the Black Sea every year is competitive for a while, but they don't last super long and then they're out of the way. We all know that global stocks are huge and some would say burdensome. But the problem is, is that a major percentage of those global stocks are poor quality, feed quality, poor quality and you need food. And therefore when you have a crop that is feed quality or poor quality it tends to disappear faster because it takes more of it to find, to be able to reach the objectives you have. And I believe the U.S. is in a good spot because we have good quality wheat. They're going to buy U.S. wheat to blend off over in Europe and then they'll send. One thing though, we did see France load ships out this week that should arrive on the East Coast by October 2nd coming out of France for feed wheat. That's kind of interesting. Pearson: So we're importing feed wheat even as we sit on 1.1 billion bushels here. Martin: Exactly, but that's going to change because I think if you look at a year ago the Eastern Corn Belt dealt with a lot of issues. This year they're going to have a crop and so that will start to move eastward and so I think that will solve that issue down the road. Pearson: Now, you do work with a lot of producers, as you look at this corn crop, Sue, have you been hearing harvest reports? Is this going to be, in your opinion, a national record average yield? Martin: Well, I think so. I think we're going to have a good crop, it's going to be a big crop. I do think it's variable. But boy I'm hearing yields all over the place. But one thing that stood out to me this last week, and we were talking about it before I came on the show, was that even in Indiana and to Ohio where a year ago they really had issues with too much rain, this year they were drier and the yields are down from what they, if you've gone back to 2014 or whatever, way down but better than a year ago maybe by 30, 40, 50 bushel to the acre. So when it's bad, but it's still better than a year ago, so I'm wondering how that plays into the mix. The other side of the coin is there's a lot of stalk rot out there and in Central Illinois we're hearing reports of diplodia and even in parts of Minnesota and what have you and I'm sure with all the rain we've been getting this week that probably isn't helping the cause at all. Pearson: And diplodia, for those who are not familiar with the term, is basically the kernel sprouting. Martin: That's right, and mold, it's a white mold. And my understanding is, Bob Straight is an agronomist, and my understanding he is recommending drying that corn down, if you've got diplodia drying it down to 13% before you put it in your bins. Pearson: Okay. So now if I'm looking at additional drying costs, I'm looking at this market that can't really seem to find some footing here, how do I handle my marketing as I look out in the fourth quarter of 2016, Sue, for corn? Martin: Well, here's the interesting thing. I think that, we know that corn struck a low here at the end of August, the first day of September, right in there. And there was timing there for a cycle low. Corn and beans both are dealing with an 84 year cycle bottom that is in the process. And our second window, the first window was March 2nd and we got a good bottom, a V bottom, there was a second window, which was right at the end of August to about the 6th to the 11th of September. There is one more that comes in late December, January. And we think by the middle of January that's done. And so I think that we're dealing with this, so what I see happening here is I think the commercial is a little concerned, one because harvest is starting to get a little delayed in Iowa, not to mention on beans too, but the commercial knows that the farmer is going to probably move beans and save his room for his corn and store the corn. And once that corn goes in the bins they aren't going to turn around and take it right back out. So they're going to have to bid if they want it right now. So I could see the market holding a little better right now and maybe moving up into October, maybe November and then we turn down as we go towards the end of the year and roll the year over as farmers are working with bankers, getting their year-end books lined up and whatever. I think farmers start to move some grain to pay off some bills and what have you and in the meantime that maybe gives us incentive to turn around and drop right back down as we roll the year over. Pearson: Okay. So on the upside as we get here through harvest into November, are you seeing $3.60, $3.70, $4? What's the top end -- Martin: Well, I don't see $4. There is a head, technically a head and shoulders bottom, nicely based head and shoulders bottom on corn. And that would project to the upper $3.60s, low $3.70s. But, as I had a gentleman one time on a blog tell me, a head and shoulders in corn is only accurate about 40% of the time. I can't prove that, but we'll see. But at the moment I see a market that is probably more willing to move sideways, maybe you'll get that little lift, if you do probably be willing to sell some there because I think you're going to get another chance as we roll the year over to come back and buy it again. Pearson: Get some reownership. Now let's take a look at this soybean market. We're down 11 cents in the November bean contract, Sue, As you mentioned harvest is being delayed in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, parts of Illinois. Where does this lead us into next week? Martin: Well, it was interesting because we noticed this week, yesterday on Thursday I should say, the market ignored bullish news. You had sales to China, it ignored that. You have all this rain, it ignored that. The market is like in a little bit of denial but it's also hearing a lot of these yields coming out that where the combining is going, dry land beans anywhere from 45 to 72 all good yields for dry land beans in Nebraska, irrigated beans 80s, Indiana 64 to 80s, upper 80s and Illinois same way. I have heard some beans out of Illinois that are coming out where they had sudden death and those bean yields are a little disappointing, after you hear all the others, but still maybe a little respectable considering around 50s, mid-50s. So that's not so bad. But one thing I will say is when you look at the state of Iowa a good third of the state having major issues and they aren't going to be in the field for at least a couple of weeks or at least a week and a half, two weeks and that's if everything dries off. The forecast for October is kind of up in the air, it could be another wet month. And then you look at Minnesota, the lower third of Minnesota, and I've got to tell you, that's some of the best land in Minnesota. And then you look at Wisconsin, same situation. I think we have to, I think the market is a little bit in denial because they're listening to these yields, but as we go forward I think we're going to start hearing some poorer yields. And I also think we have to keep one thing in mind, Argentina when they were harvesting went through a similar situation where they caught way too much rain and what happened to the production in that country, it went south. Why wouldn't we be the same? Pearson: So we could get that news trickle out here as harvest progresses and maybe provide a lift. Martin: I think so. Pearson: Alright. Well now, Sue, as we take a look at the livestock markets, on the cattle side this was a fairly big week in terms of news. We had China agree to begin accepting U.S. beef and we also had a cattle on feed report come out on Friday. We've got a question here from one of our Twitter followers, this is from John, @4720john. He wants to know, how will the opening of the beef market to the Chinese have an effect on our markets? And how long will it take? Martin: Well, I don't know how long it's going to be, they haven't really said. I do think that was part of an in some ways maybe trying to smooth the wound of the U.S. filing a complaint to WTO over them for subsidizing their farmers. Of course then today they turn around and raise the, they don't ban imports of DDGs, they just raise the ante of what it costs, the import duties to -- Pearson: Added a 38% tariff? Martin: 33.8. Pearson: 33.8% tariff on DDGs. Martin: So but I think that import tariff being raised was more to do with they haven't sold hardly any of that crappy corn that they have. It is poor, poor quality corn and I think they're trying to dissuade the end user or the processor from importing corn so that they can maybe try to still get rid of some of that corn. But I think that the beef, I think that we see it happen, I think it's a good thing down the road, it's just not here today. Pearson: Got a lot of negotiations left. Martin: We do. And the one thing we have to keep in mind is October is pork month so you're going to have some featuring of pork. We might see it next week. You're going to have, you've got a ton of poultry. You go in the grocery store and the retailer just really hasn't been real good about lowering the price of beef, especially hamburger. And so I think when we look at the beef market, I think that first off weights coming back up, for the past three weeks now we've seen weights start to come up, which was a little bit of a surprise. In the north though I've also heard where there's starting to be some heavier cattle and it's because of all this corn that's sitting around, trying to feed it off through the cattle. And so I guess that's typical of a year like this. But I think that when I look at the cattle market the feeder market was, well even the fats was wild today. They beat the market to death and then they turned around and brought it all back and closed everything higher. At the end of the day October feeders are only down about $1.70 from the high of the week. Pearson: Does that lend some excitement to you as we look into next week? Are we starting to turn this cattle complex around? Martin: Well, it was impressive because it now leaves a big spike low on the chart. And of course it's a low of higher degree too. Who would have thought? We made higher highs for the move on feeders on Thursday and then turned around and we put a secondary higher but close to the lows and we came out of it. And the cattle on feed report was sort of ho-hum in a way, 101% on feed but that's the fifth month now consecutively where we showed increase of cattle over a year ago. And then on top of it we had placements at 115%, trade was looking for 113%, that should be negative to the deferreds and then the marketings was at 116.8%, 117% if they rounded it off, it came out at 118%, that would say yes, we are pulling cattle ahead. So there was some good news up front, maybe a little negative, but for guys who have got cattle that will be in December, February, something like that, why not just instead of hedging those cattle because they're too cheap, why not go, if you're so concerned about prices, why not go out and sell the spring feeders. Pearson: Alright, Sue, 30 seconds left. I'm going to do this to you again. Hogs lower or higher on the next week? Martin: Oh, good grief. Well they're going to feature pork but you've got to remember pork production 8% higher than a year ago. Pearson: We've got numbers. Will we get the demand? Martin: The largest weekly kill that you had since 2007, December of 2007. Weights are up three pounds. Pearson: It's a coin toss. Martin: Well, it is, but yet the cattle inventory showed supplies down so that shows the retailers moving it. Pearson: Well we'll pick this up in the Market Plus. Thank you, Sue. That wraps up the broadcast portion of Market to Market. But as I mentioned, Sue and I will keep the market conversation going including answering more of your questions during Market Plus available on our website. Are you wondering about our coverage of antibiotic labeling? Go behind the scenes with the latest edition of the MtoM podcast. You'll find it wherever you get podcasts by searing M-t-o-M. And join us again next week when we explore how heritage breed farmers are producing pork with a purpose. So until then, thanks for watching. I'm Mike Pearson. Have a great week. ♪♪ Market to Market is a production of Iowa Public Television which is solely responsible for its content. Funding for Market to Market is provided by Grinnell Mutual. You think differently about a customer when you stand in the middle of his dreams. We work to make sure you get covered right. Grinnell Mutual -- a policy of working together. Information on finding an agent near you is available at grinnellmutual.com.
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