字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント Emily, you're just about the most experienced data watcher in the building right now. Can I put a challenge to you? Sure, Giles. Now, suppose you were just looking at the data, the PMIs, the inflation figures, jobless, retail sales, and you didn't know anything about Brexit. Would you be able to tell that it even happened by looking at the data? Yes. Go on. With the caveat. Go on. You tell something has happened, there is a spike or rather a plunge in pretty much every metric related to business confidence. This is business investment intentions, this is looks of forward orders. There's a plunge. What you wouldn't be able to tell, really, is in the spending data. Consumers have just kept on spending. So, explain this to me, is somebody wrong, is it the case that the shoppers are in some kind of a fool's paradise, or the guys in the sea suite have just gone all chicken little and decided to run around screaming, because, let's face it, none of them wanted Brexit, and so they all...... they're kinda protesting by saying I'm not gonna invest but if everyone's spending, they're gonna wanna carry on investing, won't they? Well, the question is, for consumers, has really anything happened yet? Remember, more than half of them actually wanted Brexit, they haven't lost their jobs, inflation whilst prices are starting to rise, most retailers are hedged against currency risk well into next year. And, it's sunshining, England's doing well in the games was actually hurting consumers. Businesses are looking at it from a different perspective, they're doing their forward planning, they're looking at their books, they're looking at uncertainty. And I don't think it's necessarily unsurprising that they are judging different risks. Right, so does this mean that one of them is gonna catch up with the other one? And which one, is it gonna be... well I mean, if these guys are being cautious, and they're not investing then ultimately unemployment [is] ought to rise a bit. The people they were gonna hire don't get hired and the investments don't get paid, so in which case will the consumer have a sort of a delayed reaction, or, are all of them just kind of waiting for the fog to clear and trying to understand actually what is this thing that's happened, 'cause let's face it, we had a government formed and then they all went on holiday and just about 2000 op-eds what Brexit means, I mean, nobody knows yet. Yeah, and I think what we're really going to know is next year. We're gonna have to wait till we see when Article 50 is triggered. And that's only when firms are really gonna be able to start to get an idea of what their plans look like, now if it looks like the divorce is going to be harmonious and consumers are happy, then they got the incentive to invest, particularly those who work on domestically-focused things. The ones who are trading internationally, they're gonna have a significantly comparative uncertainty. I think it would be naive to expect them to bounce back and spend money immediately, but you are right, the two are gonna have to converge at some time and it does matter which way they do. Remember, household consumption is about 60% of the economy, so actually if consumers do keep spending, even if international prospects looked a little bit worse, that could really cushion the blow. I mean the Brexit in the short term at least, is not a disaster. And one shouldn't forget that the pound's weakened, more people are coming to the UK. Emily, that's really interesting, thank you very much.