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  • Emily, you're just about the most experienced data watcher in the building right now.

  • Can I put a challenge to you?

  • Sure, Giles.

  • Now, suppose you were just looking at the data, the PMIs, the inflation figures, jobless, retail sales,

  • and you didn't know anything about Brexit.

  • Would you be able to tell that it even happened by looking at the data?

  • Yes.

  • Go on.

  • With the caveat.

  • Go on.

  • You tell something has happened, there is a spike or rather a plunge in pretty much every metric related to business confidence.

  • This is business investment intentions,

  • this is looks of forward orders.

  • There's a plunge.

  • What you wouldn't be able to tell, really, is in the spending data.

  • Consumers have just kept on spending.

  • So, explain this to me, is somebody wrong, is it the case that the shoppers are in some kind of a fool's paradise,

  • or the guys in the sea suite have just gone all chicken little and decided to run around screaming, because,

  • let's face it, none of them wanted Brexit, and so they all......

  • they're kinda protesting by saying I'm not gonna invest but

  • if everyone's spending, they're gonna wanna carry on investing, won't they?

  • Well, the question is, for consumers, has really anything happened yet?

  • Remember, more than half of them actually wanted Brexit,

  • they haven't lost their jobs, inflation whilst prices are starting to rise,

  • most retailers are hedged against currency risk well into next year.

  • And, it's sunshining, England's doing well in the games was actually hurting consumers.

  • Businesses are looking at it from a different perspective,

  • they're doing their forward planning, they're looking at their books, they're looking at uncertainty.

  • And I don't think it's necessarily unsurprising that they are judging different risks.

  • Right, so does this mean that one of them is gonna catch up with the other one?

  • And which one, is it gonna be... well I mean, if these guys are being cautious,

  • and they're not investing then ultimately unemployment [is] ought to rise a bit.

  • The people they were gonna hire don't get hired and the investments don't get paid,

  • so in which case will the consumer have a sort of a delayed reaction,

  • or, are all of them just kind of waiting for the fog to clear

  • and trying to understand actually what is this thing that's happened, 'cause let's face it,

  • we had a government formed and then they all went on holiday and just about 2000 op-eds what Brexit means,

  • I mean, nobody knows yet.

  • Yeah, and I think what we're really going to know is next year.

  • We're gonna have to wait till we see when Article 50 is triggered.

  • And that's only when firms are really gonna be able to start to get an idea of what their plans look like,

  • now if it looks like the divorce is going to be harmonious

  • and consumers are happy, then they got the incentive to invest,

  • particularly those who work on domestically-focused things.

  • The ones who are trading internationally,

  • they're gonna have a significantly comparative uncertainty.

  • I think it would be naive to expect them to bounce back

  • and spend money immediately,

  • but you are right, the two are gonna have to converge at some time

  • and it does matter which way they do.

  • Remember, household consumption is about 60% of the economy,

  • so actually if consumers do keep spending,

  • even if international prospects looked a little bit worse,

  • that could really cushion the blow.

  • I mean the Brexit in the short term at least, is not a disaster.

  • And one shouldn't forget that the pound's weakened, more people are coming to the UK.

  • Emily, that's really interesting, thank you very much.

Emily, you're just about the most experienced data watcher in the building right now.


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Brexit:黙示録、ない|レクス (Brexit: apocalypse, no | Lex)

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    Lillian Chiu に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日