we are so close to war.

Or not close at all.

Between aggressive threats and calls for peace,

it seems Chinese media can’t make up their mind.

Hi, welcome to China Uncensored I’m your host Chris Chappell.

You know, I admit,

I’ve been a bit worried about a war starting

over tensions in the South China Sea.

Mainly based on statements from Chinese state-run media like,

“a US-China war is inevitable in the South China Sea.”

Well, it’s easy to misinterpret that.

Sure, it seems like the Chinese language Global Times

is in some way suggesting war between the US and China

is inevitable in the South China Sea.

But that was a year ago.

Now, according to this more recent editorial

in the English language Global Times,

that simply isn’t the case.

“China is a peace-loving country

and deals with foreign relations with discretion,”

and “hopes disputes can be resolved by talks.”

Whew, you could build an entire island on my South China Sea relief.

I’m especially glad to hear about that,

“being willing to resolve things by talks” bit.

Because next week,

a UN-backed tribunal in the Hague will be doing just that!

It will rule on a territorial dispute between China and the Philippines

over disputed territorial waters.

It’s great that China is so open to resolving things by talks!

"China does not accept any dispute resolution from a third party

and does not accept any dispute resolution forced on China."

Oh, funny that, I guess the Chinese regime isn’t really open to talks.

But China still only wants peace in the South China Sea, right?

I guess I’m just getting a little confused,

since that English Global Times article says,

“China is a peace-loving country,”

but then later,

“China should speed up building its military capabilities,”

and “let the US pay a cost it cannot stand

if it intervenes in the South China Sea.”

That sounds like a threat to me.

Now, you might be thinking,

“Yeah? Them and what army?”

This one.

China has started military exercises today which will run until July 11…

vessels will be prohibited from the area.“

Yup, China’s People’s Liberation Army

has just cordoned off a huge chunk of the South China Sea.

"The military drills are the Chinese navy's routine drills

according to its annual plan."

Right. Those drills are “routine.”

Even though the Global Times

specifically wrote just a few days ago

that the drills are being held as a result of the international arbitration case.

Next Tuesday, the Hague will issue its ruling

and it’s widely expected to rule in favor of the Philippines.

So not only are this week’s drills happening

in disputed territorial waters which Vietnam claims,

they’re also happening right next

to some of the busiest shipping lanes in the South China Sea.

This is of course just the latest

in the very long saga of the South China Sea territorial disputes.

China militarizes the region by, say, building artificial islands.

“China, in addition to building those islands,

is now militarizing them,

basing military aircraft, military warships and missile systems

on those manufactured reefs.”

The United States then says,

no, those are international waters and international airspace.

Then sends its military in to prove it.

Then Chinese state-run media criticizes the US for militarizing the region.

China has criticized the militarization of the region

by the US denouncing the show of strength as miscalculated.

Internet flame wars ensue.

Then I make an episode about it,

resulting in more internet flame wars.

It’s like a merry-go-round!

That’s on fire.

And it’s going way too fast to get off anymore.

Because all it takes is one little accident

for this whole thing to spiral out of everyone’s control.

Think that will never happen?

July 1st, the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party:

A Taiwanese patrol ship is doing training drills

and accidentally fires a supersonic missile in the direction of mainland China.

It hits another ship, killing the captain.

Now, it just so happens that ship was Taiwanese.

But imagine what would be happening right now

if that freak accident

had hit a mainland Chinese boat and killed a mainland Chinese captain.

We might be working towards a final answer

to that “One China Policy” question a lot sooner than anyone anticipated.

So as we approach the ruling by the Hague,

with tensions so high,

what do you think will happen next?

And what should be done?

Leave your comments below.

Thanks for watching this episode of China Uncensored.

Once again I’m your host Chris Chappell.

See you next time.