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  • Welcome to the bunny market!

  • Bull and bear markets were good fun while they lasted, and in retrospect, they were pretty nice and predictable, but the world has moved on.

  • Now, we need an animal that's more... hoppy.

  • The issue is that markets are bouncing around on various mood swings much more frequently than they used to.

  • It's a humbling experience for those trying to predict what's going to happen next, or worse, manage other people's money.

  • As a quick look at macro hedge fund performance this year shows,

  • Citigroup's currencies analysts say they've been repeatedly stopped out of their trade ideas this year,

  • a common experience, they describe, as very frustrating.

  • So try and figure out why it's happening,

  • they've sifted through the data and found that the time it takes for mini-trends in major currencies to play out has shrunk a lot,

  • from around a month up to the end of 2014 to just a week now.

  • To wit, they calculate that if you sell the top two major currencies and buy the bottom two every Friday and do nothing for just a week,

  • you'd have made returns of just under 5% so far this year.

  • That's not to be sniffed at.

  • So forget all the spreadsheets and macro analysis and go and set your algos, right?

  • In stocks, Hermes' investment management says the bunny market phenomenon is alive and well with short term sentiment,

  • that flakiest of things apparently in control.

  • It may all be a warning sign it reckons that another bear market lies ahead,

  • but until that bear comes along to gobble the rabbit, stay nimble.

Welcome to the bunny market!

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うさぎ市場 - 熊と牛は注意してください|ショートビュー (A bunny market — bears and bulls beware | Short View)

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    Kristi Yang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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