字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント Good morning everyone. Thank you all for coming to our presentation. Yes, we're very pleased to be able to talk to you about such an important issue today. My name is Thomas, and this is Wing, and we're from both students studying business here at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. As part of our studies, we have put together a short presentation about a very important topic. We are sure that many of you are familiar with this issue, but for the benefit of (those) who aren't, let's take a moment to introduce the subject. What do you think is going on in this photo? Audience: Giving that man a prize? Good guess, but, no, actually that man works in the store. What do you think that says about the workforce these days? Audience: That the population is getting older, and people want to work for longer? Exactly, and that's what we're going to talk about today, China's ageing population. We have divided the presentation into four parts. First, I'll talk about the background of China's ageing population, and second, its causes. Then, Thomas will briefly present its effects before looking at some possible solutions (for the ageing population). He will also give a brief conclusion. We'll be talking for around ten minutes, and we welcome any questions (that you may have) at the end. OK, first of all, let's look at the problem of ageing populations. According to the World Health Organization, the number of elderly people, defined as (those) over 60 years old, will have doubled, from 11% in 2000 to 22% by 2050. This means that there will be around 2 billion elderly people all over the world by 2050. The rapid growth of elderly populations will be more significant in developing countries, like China. Scholars have figured out the causes of China's ageing population by studying the population policy and the social phenomena in China. I've identified three main causes. Now, I'd like to discuss the first main cause, the early population policy. The population policy in China has (been) changing since the 1950s. In the 1950s and 1960s, women were encouraged to have children. This can be seen by this quote from Mao Zedong in 1949. As Matthew Potts in his 2006 article shows, this led to a baby boom in (the) 1950s and early 1960s. The population pyramid in 1950 showed that the younger generation, who were aged 14 or below, comprised about 40% of the total population. The elderly population, that is people over 60 years old, was less than 6%. This has been the foundation of the large elderly population in China today And this leads me to the second main cause of China's ageing population, the one child policy. The Chinese Government soon found that the growing population was an obstacle to economic development after the famine caused by the Great Leap Forward in the late 1950s. Therefore, the government started promoting birth control from the mid 1960s. The "later, longer, fewer" policy was launched. This meant later marriage, fewer children and longer spacing between children. And then, as Alcorn and Bao have shown, in 1979 the Chinese government announced the one child policy. The policy only allowed couples to have one child. As a result, there has been a rapid drop in the fertility rate. The shape of (the) population pyramid has changed. In 2010, the population under 14 years old had dropped by 50%; they only made up about one fifth of the total population. At the same time, the elderly population had almost doubled, up to more than one in ten of the total population. Now, let's look at the third factor that contributes to China's low fertility rate. That is the changing social phenomena. Researchers have pointed out that the rising cost of living and increasing education expenses have discouraged young couples from having children. Many couples choose to maintain their high living standard by not having children. Faure and Fang have shown that the number of DINK couples, that means "double income, no kid", have gone up. This further lowers the fertility rate in China and pushes China towards population imbalance. The WHO estimates that there will be only about 15% of the total population aged 14 or below, and almost one third will be elderly in China by twenty fifty. Well, that's all I have to say about the causes of China's ageing population. I've looked at three causes; first China's policy of encouraging more births in the 1950s and early 1960s. Then the introduction of policies that favoured smaller families, ending in (the) one child policy in 1979. And finally the social phenomena of DINK couples. Now I shall hand over to Thomas, who will discuss the effects of the causes and the possible solutions for the problem. Thomas, over to you. Thank you Wing. So, (I am) Thomas. I'm going to briefly talk about the effects of the ageing population, and (then) look at some solutions for these problems. So, as a paper by Banister and colleagues from 2010 shows, one of the first effects is a labour shortage in China. A second negative effect is the surge in demand for services for the elderly. Both these effects are going to present challenges for the Chinese government. Let's now consider some solutions. First, let's look at the possible solutions for a labour shortage. The Chinese government should consider both short-term and long-term solutions. In (the) short term, the government could extend the retirement age to encourage those over 60 years old, who are still able and willing to work, to return to the labour market. This would help to stabilise the population of the present labour force. In the long term, the government should propose policies that encourage fertility. As reported by an article in the journal Science, many academics think that the government should relax the one child policy, and allow couples to have more than one child. In order to motivate more couples to give birth, the government might consider giving tax breaks to parents. The team led by Li in 2011 argues that this reduces the cost of living and education when raising children, which would encourage parenthood. These could possibly raise the birth rate and provide more labour in the future. Now, I'd like to move on to the solution to the surge in demand for elderly services. I think there are two main solutions here. First, Zhang and Goza have suggested in 2006 that the central government should increase the elderly's financial independence. Private pension funds and health insurance should be promoted. As Li and his colleagues point out, money for these funds could be collected either compulsorily or voluntarily. This would ease the financial burden of the future generation in elderly care. A second solution is that the local governments should provide more elderly homes and centres to their residents. The participation of the general public and charity organisations will be crucial for the establishment and the operation of the homes and centres. This is because they will provide manpower support to the homes and centres and help to collect funds for private pensions and health insurance. Well, I think that covers most of the things we want to say today about China's ageing population. Turning to my conclusion, I'd like to summarise our main points. In our presentation, I have shown the effects and some solutions for the ageing population problem in China. My partner Wing has told you about the major causes: the inconsistent population policies of the Chinese government and the changing social phenomena. I briefly defined and discussed two effects - the labour shortage and surge in demand of elderly services in the near future. Finally, I mentioned some possible solutions to these problems, including extending the retirement age, relaxing the one child policy, providing tax breaks for parents, launching a policy for ensuring a quality of life, and creating more homes and centres for the elderly. So, that's the end of our presentation. Thank you for listening and I hope that you've found our presentation informative. Here is our full reference list. And now, we'd be happy to answer any questions you have. Are there any questions? Audience: As you said at the beginning of the presentation, the growth of the elderly population in China will be more significant in the future. Could you tell us why it is more significant as developed countries have ageing populations as well? Thank you for your question. That's a very good question. What makes the growth of (the) elderly population in China significant is the speed of the growth. In most of the European countries, like France, they have taken centuries to double their elderly population. But, China has only needed 25 years to do the same. So, that's why we think that the growth of the elderly population in China is significant. Does that answer your question? Audience: Yes, thank you. So, would anyone else like to raise another question? Audience: As far as I see (it), many Chinese people believe in filial piety. They take good care of their parents at home by themselves. So, can you tell us why there will be a surge in demand for elderly services in the future? Interesting question. You're right, in the past century, elderly care services were mainly provided by individual households, which meant Chinese people were taking care of their (own) parents. This was possible because most of the couples had more than one child. But, the family structure's changed after all these years. The new family structure will be a 4-2-1 structure. That means there are four grandparents, two parents and one child. The only child in the family won't be able to take care of his or her grandparents and parents at the same time in the future. So, that's why we believe there will be a surge in demand for elderly services in the future. (Have) I answered your question? Audience: Yes, that's fine, thanks!