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  • >>presenter: So, Kevin Kelly is not only one of the foremost innovators and writers about

  • technology, but his personal story is an equally interesting one. He rode his bike across America

  • and back, and wrote a haiku and drew a drawing for every day of that journey. He spent seven

  • years walking across Asia and he published a beautiful book of his photography from his

  • travels, called "Asia Grace." I first met Kevin when I was five or six, when my dad

  • took over the role of editor from him at the Whole Earth Review and Kevin Kelly was a founding

  • executive editor of Wired. He helped design and launch the WELL, the famous, prototypical,

  • virtual community, as well as HotWired, the first commercial web scene. He is one of the

  • founders of the Long Now Foundation and he also creates and publishes the website Cool

  • Tools. He's also a regular contributor to the New York Times magazine, publishing features

  • on digital culture and one of the last ones was an education issue about homeschooling

  • his son and the role that technology played. His books include "Out of Control," "Rules

  • for a New Economy," several editions of the Whole Earth Catalog and today, he's going

  • to be talking his latest book, "What Technology Wants." So, please help me in welcoming Kevin

  • Kelly.

  • [applause]

  • >>Kevin: Thank you, Mimi. That was great. It's great to be back here. About six years

  • ago, I actually gave a talk in thinking about this book, in this very same room on the history

  • and the future of the scientific method. And that talk is now two pages in this larger

  • book, which is about the long term trends in technology. And there's lots of things

  • that I feel I could talk to you about this afternoon, but I think, or I could talk about

  • the future of media, the future of the Internet and the Web and those kinds of things; all

  • of which you probably know a lot more about than I do. And I think I'd rather, instead,

  • like to step back and talk about what technology means and where it, where its place in the

  • world, where it wants to be in our minds as we make all this stuff. So, everyday, you

  • folks are involved in creating new things and the problem is we don't really have a

  • very good theory about what it is that we're making. And so, the current idea about technology

  • is basically one thing after another. All right? We produce one thing after another

  • and there's no larger framework about whether these are good things, whether we want more

  • of it, where it fits into the cosmos, how it relates to nature and what I'm trying to

  • do is basically, make a first draft for a theory of technology; so you can think of

  • it in those terms. And so, that sounds kind of really esoteric, but here's a definition

  • that most people think about what technology is, is about anything that was invented after

  • you were born; it's all this new stuff, the stuff that's coming out of labs here. And

  • if you're maybe a little more sophisticated, you might think of it as stuff that doesn't

  • work yet and, or maybe it's the stuff that's in your pockets. Or maybe anything that has

  • an on or off switch. And, I think, of course, all those gadgets and all those things are

  • the stuff that technology is, but it's actually something more than that. We can take two

  • pictures, these two artifacts that are approximately the same size and shape and one of them can

  • easily be made by any of us here--not maybe as well-- and that's the tool of the hammer

  • and that's prehistoric. Or the one on the right, the mouse or the iPhone or whatever

  • you wanna look at, that one not only could not any of us do, but even the group of us

  • here could not do. And, in fact, even everyone in this building could not actually produce

  • that. And that's because that device requires maybe a thousand intermediate technologies

  • to create it and maintain it and operate it, and each of those technologies might, in turn,

  • depend on another hundred intermediate technologies. So, what we have is the technology we have,

  • like on the right, is actually representative of an ecology of technologies. It's a whole

  • set of interrelated, interdependent and codependent artifacts and that that entire ecology, or

  • if you can like, if you wanna think of it as a super organism of technology, is actually

  • what I'm most interested in. And to distinguish that from the individual technologies or artifacts;

  • I call that the "technium." So, the technium is this huge, super hive, super ecology of

  • all the technologies that we have as they are related to each other and codependent

  • on each other. And what we know about systems, that have that degree of complexity, there's

  • two things. The one thing that we know about those kinds of systems is that, first of all,

  • they exhibit behaviors that are not present in any of the parts, ok? So, you can look

  • forever into a tin-, into a bee or an ant and you'll never see the hive or the colony.

  • So, that behavior is not present in the individual components. And so, the pres-, the actual

  • behavior, the technium, is not present in any of the devices; it has a larger system-wide

  • behavior. And secondly, those behaviors have inherent biases and tendencies. That's what

  • we know about systems, ok? And the more recursive circuits there are in this, the more tendencies

  • there are, and so, recursive circuit is the idea here, the infinite loop or recursive

  • loop, where we see this in biology. We have genes. A lot of the genes in our chromosomes

  • are turning on other genes; they're not expressing protein, but they're turning on other genes

  • and some of those genes are turning on other genes, and some of those genes are turning

  • on the first genes. And so, you have this recursive loop. We have technologies that

  • make; technology A makes technology B, technology B makes C, and C is involved in the creation

  • of A, so we have recursive loops within the technium and whenever you have those, you

  • have biases, tendencies. And so, when I talk about what technology wants, what I'm talking

  • about is what the technium is biased towards. So, it's, I don't mean "want" in terms of

  • the way in which an intelligence or conscious being would want, but I mean "want" in the

  • way that plants want light. They're leaning towards light. The tomato plant on your windowsill's

  • leaning towards the light; it's not conscious, it's not intelligent. It has a bias in its

  • system, an urge and need, to move towards light. And so, we have plants that want light

  • and that is what the technium has, is certain wants. And the question I'm asking is, in

  • general, what are the biases in the technium? And I begin, if, going back to plants, because

  • my premise is that, in fact, the technium is an extension coming from us. It's not just

  • from our minds, it's also from a biological past; from our evolutionary past, that the

  • technium is actually extending and accelerating those same forces. And so, I ask what does

  • evolution want? Now, I have to say right away is that there are some evolutionary biologists.

  • Among the most prominent was the late Stephen Jay Gould, who argued very, very forcefully

  • that there are no trends in evolution at all; that it's trendless. That there's no trajectories,

  • there's no directions. And that is the orthodoxy in evolutionary biology right now, but there

  • is, there are minority view and there are other evolutionary biologists and many of

  • them young, who actually have more experience with computational and computer simulations,

  • who actually make a different argument and have evidence to show that there are trends,

  • directions, in the long course of evolution. And, and the foremost of those is the ones

  • that we all intuitively feel, which is that over 3.7 billion years of life that life has

  • gotten more complex. Now, the reason why that's maybe not an obvious trend is, Stephen Jay

  • Gould would say, "Well, if you're starting off simple, you have nowhere else to go but

  • more complex." And so, the fact that the leading edge is getting more complex is trivial; it's

  • not important. The question is about the trailing edge. And so, we can show, in fact, that when

  • you have moved along some evolution and you are somewhat complex, is there any bias in

  • which direction you go then? And we can show that there's a mild drift towards increasing

  • complexity, even at the trailing edge of evolution; say bacterium. So, what does evolution want?

  • Well, again, there is a trend. We have evidence that there is a trend in greater complexity

  • over 3.7 billion years of life; that's one trend. But there's also trends towards more

  • diversity; increasing numbers of different species. And again, that increasing diversity

  • happens not just when you're starting off with simple, but even wants to have some diversity;

  • it rarely goes to less diverse. It generally, on average, goes to more diverse. And we can

  • actually make a list of these things including increasing complexity, increasing diversity,

  • increasing specialization. The first cells are general. There's one kind of cell that

  • does everything. Over time, they evolve into specialties and so we have 250 different cell

  • types in our bodies. We can show the number of cell types increases over time in evolutionary

  • history. Increasing mutualism, codependency on other organisms as for your life, increasing

  • ubiquity, increasing mindfulness, sentience. We see the mind and the kind of learning that

  • a brain does and neurons, even happens in plants. We see it erupting throughout the

  • kingdom of life many, many times independently. There's increasing learning and evolvability,

  • which is the ability to evolve and so we forget the fact that the evolution process itself,

  • is not a singular, fixed process, but itself has evolved in complexity and it actually

  • has made things easier to evolve over time. So, it's actually, organisms can evolve faster,

  • quicker and more degrees of freedom now than they could two billion years ago. So, there

  • is actually the evolution of evolvability over time. And exotropy, which is increasing

  • order, increasing self-organization and increasing structure. So, those are the kinds of things

  • that we see and the reason why that's important is because, I think, one of the most amazing

  • discoveries in the last 50 years has been the realization that the essence of life was

  • not water or some vital spirit or some mystical force in the world, but actually was information.

  • We saw that with the discovery of the DNA code; we can understand that the essence of

  • life was actually information processing. And, of course, that's the essence of technology

  • and it wasn't too long ago, for the first time, that we actually exported Darwinian

  • evolution and moved it in to a computational world and they, for instance, we used it to

  • evolve computer code. Microsoft Word has parts of its code that was evolved and not actually

  • programmed by humans. So, we moved evolution out of biology into computers and at the same

  • time, we could take E. coli and assign numbers to its genetic sequences and in parallel,

  • as a proof of concept, used it as a parallel processing machine to solve a travelling salesman

  • program. So, we used the parallel processing of E. coli genetics to solve a computer program.

  • So, we have evolution moving in computers; we have life and evolution moving from life

  • and doing computation, showing that in some senses, that there's equivalency between life

  • and the technium--that the division that we normally think of them, as a gulf, is not

  • there. In fact, there is a continuum between the two. So, that means that when we look

  • at things like this, this 17, 1800s, this diversity of smoke catchers is almost like

  • a museum collection of different species of butterflies and we see specialization, of

  • course, happening in the technium in mechanical things. We make a computer or a camera, and

  • then we might make this specialized underwater camera and infrared camera and a high-speed

  • camera and then we can specialize that to make a specialized infrared camera, and then

  • a specialized infrared underwater camera and so it goes on and on; that specialization

  • is happening. And we can even map, in some cases, the genealogy of different inventions.

  • And I think that's, the parallels are so steep that, in fact, we might even think of, these

  • are the six kingdoms of life: plants, animals, fungi and three kinds of bacteria. We might

  • think of these six kingdoms of life as actually producing the seventh kingdom, and I think

  • of the technium as basically the seventh kingdom of life because it shares so many of the attributes

  • as a system, again, as a technium; not the individual artifacts, but as a system, it

  • exhibits so many of the same self-organizing forces that life does that we, that I think

  • of it as the seventh kingdom of life. So, when I ask what does technology want, what

  • are the biases and the long-term trends in technology, I get a very similar answer. And

  • again, I wanna go back to the idea that "want" is not conscious, but is real that even unintelligent

  • systems can have wants. So, this is the Willow Garage PD2, I think, robot which has been

  • programmed to find its own energy; to recharge itself. And so, it will roam through its building

  • looking for outlets and then takes its tail plug and it plugs in by itself, it plugs into

  • the outlet until its recharged and then it takes off again. And I had the privilege of

  • standing between it and the outlet and it very definitely wanted energy. You could feel

  • it. And it was gonna find it somehow or another and it was not conscious, it was not aware,

  • it was not very intelligent, but it definitely wanted electricity. And so, if we again ask

  • what the technium wants, what it wants is the same thing. It wants to head towards;

  • it's a general bias to drift towards increasing complexity, increasing diversity, increasing

  • specialization, increasing mutualism, ubiquity, sentience and evolvability, among other things.

  • And so, what does that mean? Well, here's one example of a long-term trend in technology.

  • If you take the power density--the energy density-- of living, of systems that are in

  • disequilibrium, like a galaxy, like a star, even planets with atmosphere life, you find

  • that the amount of energy per second per gram, so erg's per second per gram, flowing through

  • this system for the duration of the system that the highest energy densities are actually

  • increasing over astronomical time. And that, in fact, there's more energy flowing through

  • the cells of a sunflower than there is in the sun over its entire lifespan. And so,

  • the most energy dense entity that we know about in the world is actually the chip in

  • your PC, in your computer. In fact, that's the problem for engineers is that there's

  • so much energy flowing through here and it's so dense that it's near explosion or meltdown.

  • I mean, it's incredibly, incredibly energy dense state and yet we can actually say that

  • where its gonna go is actually gonna be even further in that direction. So, these systems

  • have their own agenda of some sort, and the question is what is the agenda? And one of

  • the agendas is, of course, to increase itself. I did a calculation that most of the power

  • in the technium is using to serve the technium rather than us humans. When you're driving

  • your car, three quarters or more of that energy that you burn is to move the car, not you.

  • You're a minor passenger, literally, in this thing and we have, your car then has a garage,

  • which may be needed to be heated as well, even when you're not there. And so, we have

  • this thing in which the technium is trying, is increasing, at least servicing more of

  • itself. It's, there's more technology and the more technology is, the more it needs.

  • So, that's one sense. And the other one, and another sense of having an agenda would be

  • Moore's Law. So, a great question that I tried to answer was, "Was Moore's Law inevitable?

  • Or, is Moore's Law inevitable?" And Gordon Moore and Carver Mead, who developed this

  • in the 60s, and this, of course, is this unwavering line over decades of research, independent

  • of the fact that people are constantly trying to accelerate it by putting billions into

  • a fad or whatever, or trying to ahead of it; it still doesn't work, it's just very, very

  • straight. They believed it was actually just a self-fulfilling prophecy, but, of course,

  • the problem was is that this curve translated into like, say operations per second, has

  • been going on way before they were aware of it and we see similar kinds of curves in bandwidth,

  • storage, DNA sequencing and all these curves are on the same kind of unwavering, fixed

  • slope and they start long before people believed them, even when they deny they are there,

  • and so it's not just self-fulfilling prophecy. It is built in to the mechanics of physics

  • and chemistry and the slope may be something that depends on the economy, but the fact

  • that it's straight does not. And another example of an agenda is that most inventions throughout

  • history and currently now, are independently, simultaneously invented. There were 23 other

  • people who invented light bulbs before Edison. When Alexander Graham Bell filed the patents

  • for the telephone three years, three hours later, Elisha Gray submitted for his idea

  • and neither, and both had been preceded by an Italian years before. And in every case,

  • we, and we even, in places like, I looked at the studies of work during the Manhattan

  • Project, when there was six different groups working on things that were absolutely separated

  • because of secrecy and wartime division. Even the three groups in the US were on a need

  • to know basis and were not aware of the others' work, they kept very meticulous records, so

  • we have absolute proof, laboratory experiments of people inventing things completely independent

  • and coming up with very similar things and in the near at the same time. So, whenever

  • the precursor inventions are in need, or excuse me, are in place in this ecology, the next

  • adjacent space is inevitable and it will happen at that time whether someone is, I mean, that

  • the person who actually receives it is just those who are putting themselves there. It's

  • not really dependent on the lone genius. And this is the work of Stephen Johnson, showing

  • the same thing. The idea of the lone genius is just incorrect. It comes from an ecology;

  • an ecosystem of codependent inventions and that the steps in these things are inevitable

  • and the progression is even inevitable. And I showed that, in this book, looking at the

  • pre-history inventions on different continents when they were separated and without any kind

  • of communication between them, the sequence of inventions in pre-history were on the different

  • continents were very close to being the same in each case, showing that, in a certain sense,

  • that the technologies that are coming are also going to be inevitable. And so, the Web

  • was inevitable. Now, what was not inevitable was what kind of Web we have. I think we,

  • the expressions of it are like the genre, the genius level is inevitable, but the speciation

  • is not. So the light bulb, incandescent light bulb, was inevitable, but the actual, whether

  • it was tungsten or not, whether what voltage, whether it was AC or DC; those were not inevitable.

  • And the same thing with the Web. The expression of it, whether it's centralized or decentralized,

  • transparent with the actual protocol is, those are not inevitable and those differences actually

  • make a huge difference to our experience of it. Ok, so, so, and I would say that as we

  • look to the future, human cloning is inevitable. Now, in what arena, how is it done? That's

  • not inevitable; we have some choices about that. Computer driven cars, as you guys know,

  • they're inevitable, but not what the regulation is, not how we experience them, not the cultural

  • infrastructure that we built around them. Those are things we do have choices about.

  • And so, humanity, I think, is something we've self-created. And whenever you have self-creation,

  • that means that you, which we are; we've created ourselves. We are both the created and the

  • creators, so there's a tension that we have about technology from the very beginning.

  • We are self-created in the sense that very early on, we started doing things like creating

  • an external stomach to cook our food, to cook food that we could not digest ourselves and

  • that external stomach actually changed our nutrition sufficiently that it actually altered

  • over time the size of our teeth, the position of our jaw, the enzymes in our body, and so

  • we're now dependent on cooking, but it actually has changed our genetics. So, we've modified

  • ourselves, through our brain, through our technology, we have modified ourselves. We

  • have remade, or made, or created ourselves. And a lot of what we identify with humanity

  • is, in fact, from our laws, through our sense of justice, to maybe even our language, are

  • things that we have made with our minds. And we have, we're self-created. And as, again,

  • self-created, that means that we are both the creator and the created. We are both masters

  • and the servant. That happens when you are self-created. That invention of language,

  • about 50 thousand years ago, changed the population dynamics. We were only eight to ten thousand

  • in total maybe in the world and as soon as we had language, we had a tool that will,

  • gave us access to our own minds. I think the Neanderthals were probably pretty smart, but

  • didn't have any kind of control over that because they didn't have language. Language

  • is not just for communicating with others, but communicating with ourselves and so, with

  • language, we are suddenly, we had tools, we had technology, we could deliberately make

  • things rather than just encounter them and we spread very fast. In fact, we spread across

  • every watershed in the planet at the scale of one mile per year. That's how fast the

  • expansion of humanity was around the globe. One mile per year, we settled the entire globe

  • in a couple thousand years. And so, with this technology alone, for a long time, we actually

  • modified the entire planet. We, the early hunter-gatherers eliminated 250 mega-, 250

  • species of mega fauna to extinction long before, I mean, these were the kind of, the people

  • living in harmony, supposedly. These people completely altered the whole mix of, because

  • once you eradicate the mega fauna, it changes all the speciation of the ecology. And even

  • by the time we got to agriculture, ten thousand years ago, agriculture started to change the

  • climate, so climate change actually preceded the industrial age. So really, from the very

  • beginning of our tools, technology has become a planetary force. And, in fact, I would say

  • that it's now the most powerful force in the world. Most of the things in our lives, we

  • can draw back its origins to something that we invented. And most of the change in the

  • future, of course, will all come from things that we invented. And what I'm saying, of

  • course, is that the greatest invention that we made is our own humanity and, of course,

  • we're not done yet and that's the whole point of this. So, technology is selfish in the

  • sense that it has its own agenda. We are the created, so it's selfish in that sense. But

  • also, at the same time, it serves us. We are the creators and that tension between being

  • created and being the creator, being the master and the slave to technology is never gonna

  • leave us and it's the cause of all our constant tension. And a thousand years from now, with

  • new technology, we'll still be wrestling with the fact that we are both the created and

  • the creator, that technology is both selfish and serves us at the same time, and that duality,

  • that tension, is never gonna leave. And, of course, most people would embrace technology,

  • I think, but there's concern about is there any limit to it? Is this gonna take over,

  • become the techno planet and wipe out the biology? And what's interesting, if you take

  • my assertion that, in fact, the technium is an extension of the evolutionary force, that

  • it's a continuation and acceleration of evolution in life, that means actually that, what, so

  • far, what we know is that there's no technology that we discovered yet that cannot be made

  • greener, more compatible with life. And so, while there's much about the technium that

  • is not compatible with life, that's grimy and dirty and inhumane at scale, there's nothing

  • inherent in the technium about that. That's not inherent, so we can make more green stuff

  • that is compatible with life and living. In fact, when you make these chips for the computers,

  • they require a purity of water actually exceeds what we're drinking. And so, in a certain

  • sense, you can say, "Well, yeah, even technology wants clean water." So, there is a sense in

  • which that's necessary for technology, just like for us. And so, I think, it's, the technium

  • inherently is not compatible with life, but is compatible with life. And I like the way

  • to think of it, if we have a technology that is not green--maybe it's actually very harmful

  • to the environment-- I think of that as a bad idea. So, what's the proper response to

  • a bad idea? Well, if somebody has a bad, if somebody here had a bad idea, we're not gonna

  • say to them, "Think less." We're gonna say, "Come up with a better idea." And I think

  • that's the response to a bad idea, is a better idea. So, when we have a bad technology, maybe

  • you're spraying DDT across cotton crops on plantation scale in millions of pounds a year

  • and that's an environmental disaster, so the response to a bad technology is not less technology;

  • it's better technology. So, we can reform. We take the same technology, the same chemical,

  • DDT, and we, if we apply it around households, it is the most effective eliminator of malaria,

  • saving tens of millions of lives a year. And so, we can relocate a technology. So, most

  • of the problems in the world today are technogenic. They have, they're caused by previous technologies.

  • Every new technology will make new problems. In the future, most of the problems of the

  • world in the future are gonna come from the technologies that were invented today or in

  • the future, so we're all gonna be technogenic as well. And so, so there's a tendency because

  • so many problems are technogenic is to say that we need less technology, but in fact

  • we just need better technology. Understanding, of course, that the better technology is gonna

  • generate its own problems in the future. So, I think our jobs as humans is to move that

  • DDT into a better job; to find the best jobs for our mind children. And they're, just like

  • we have our children, we want to guide them in the right thing; make sure they have the

  • right friends, put them in the right context and the right environment and really try to

  • look for what it is that they want. And I think there's, just as there's no bad children,

  • there's really no bad technologies. There's just technologies looking for the right place.

  • And I think that even that's true about lots of technologies that are weaponized. I mean,

  • it's not inconceivable to me that there might be some place in space where you might want

  • to have nuclear bombs. They are a terrible thing for killing humans, but they might be

  • useful for other things and as long as we're on Earth, we probably don't want them. So,

  • what technology wants, it wants increasing diversity, increasing options, choices, opportunities,

  • possibilities; that's what technology gives us, ok? So, I acknowledge that technology

  • and new technology will often produce as many problems as solutions, ok? So, people will

  • say, "Well, that means that technology is just neutral." That's the orthodox view of

  • a lot of technologists. It's a neutral tool; use it for good, use it for bad. If it's a

  • hammer, it can kill somebody or build a house, ok? And in a certain sense, that is true,

  • but there's one difference is that when that hammer was invented, it presented you and

  • the world and us with a new choice we did not have before. And I say that that new choice

  • itself is a good. Just the new choice itself is a good. That tips the balance slightly,

  • very, very slightly in the favor of good overall, ok? So, every new technology itself, while

  • it can create new problems, the fact that it is increasing our choices and our possibilities

  • is itself in the good. And it turns out that you don't need it to be a whole lot better;

  • it can be a little bit better. So, if, through technology, we can create one percent more

  • than we destroy every year, compounded over years and centuries, that one percent difference

  • is civilization. That's progress, ok? So, we don't need to have that. Maybe it's only

  • a tenth of a percent, so 49.5 percent of the world could be crap and terrible and horrible,

  • but if 51, or even 50.5 percent is great and good and increases our choices, that is progress

  • in my eyes. That's how we get progress. So, that's why it's not just neutral. I think

  • the long, there is a moral dimension to technology; it's not neutral. And we are increasing our

  • options and possibilities. I did with my daughter; I did a count of the number of objects in

  • our house. There were about ten thousand different objects. If you look at the inventory of the

  • king, King Henry the 8th of England, when he died, they did an inventory of everything

  • in his household which doubled as the Bank of England, ok? And there was 18 thousand

  • objects; so basically, the wealth of England was 18 thousand objects. And so we say, when

  • sometimes we're approaching the wealth kings of old in our normal, everyday life, but actually

  • it's even more interesting because the wealth of King Henry, all his wealth in total could

  • not have purchased a tube of antibiotics ointment that could have saved his life or someone

  • he loved. I think its Rothchild, the wealthy, the first multimillionaires in America died

  • of an abscess that could have been cured with two dollars worth of antibiotics, but his

  • wealth could not have bought that. And this guy, this rickshaw wallah in India could have

  • so many things that King Henry and all his wealth could not buy, which was, King Henry

  • could not have a flush toilet and his wealth could not buy refrigeration, could not buy

  • a comfortable ride for a hundred miles; all these things. And this guy could afford these

  • and so, in that sense, he and us are far wealthier than King Henry ever was. That's what progress

  • is. That's what this stuff brings us and it gives us not just progress, but choices, possibilities,

  • opportunities, longevity, increased education; all these things which are pointing up over

  • time. And I want, it's, what I want to emphasize is that it's, when we spend our time making

  • new things, it's not just, I mean, we're sometimes dismayed because we make things that people

  • forget very easily, or they throw away; we seem like we're involved in just selling more

  • stuff and it's consumerism. And so, there is a sense in which we're just creating lots

  • of stuff and we say, "Well, why are we doing this? What's the value in it?" And I'm saying

  • what it is, there's a larger thing, which is that we are actually increasing the choices

  • and possibilities and options of the world. And the reason why that's good is because

  • we're actually partaking in something that is larger than us. That this, this force itself

  • organization of increasing diversity began at the Big Bang and it's been running through.

  • This, this, the rest of the world, the universe is running down and entropy is going down,

  • but there are places where we can accelerate the creation of entropy and increase local

  • order--exotropy--and that's, one of those neighborhoods is this Earth and this life

  • on Earth, which is being increasing its order by accelerating the creation of entropy. And

  • that self-organization is running through the galaxies, which are maintaining the order,

  • or stars, which are machines for building up heavier atoms from lighter atoms and they

  • maintain themselves for billions of years. And that self-organization is running through

  • life and into the technium and so, we are actually, we can align ourselves with something

  • much bigger than us, ourselves. It goes back to the beginning and it's gonna run from the

  • beginning of the universe and actually beyond us, go beyond us, even as humanities in the

  • middle of something. We're not the end of anything. And so, that long arc is actually

  • bringing increasing choices and possibilities. And the reason why that is important is because

  • I think that we often need these new tools for each of us to express our inherent special

  • mix of talents and abilities. We all have different faces because of the different mix

  • of genes and things we have. We all have different niches of talents and abilities and the technology's

  • often required for us to find and express that. So you can, I like to think of Jimi

  • Hendrix and the fact that the invention of the amplifier--he played the amplifier and

  • not the guitar--so, the amplifier actually allowed his genius to be shared in the world.

  • And then I think about, "Well, what a hole in us we would have if he had been born before

  • the amplifier had been invented." Or if Mozart had been born before the technology of the

  • piano had been invented. Or maybe Van Gogh before oil paints, or Hitchcock before the

  • invention of the technologies of cinema. What a loss that would be to us. And so, in a certain

  • sense, I think there are today, somewhere in the world, a boy or girl, a genius of some

  • sort who's waiting for us to invent those tools and technologies that would allow their

  • genius to be shared. And so, I think we actually have a moral obligation to create those things,

  • those possibilities, to maximize those possibilities for everybody in the world so they would have

  • some chance to really find and share their genius with us. And because we actually had

  • been benefitted by others in the past, who had been making new things for us, and so

  • we have, we're here to make more technology to increase those possibilities and that is

  • part of this long, cosmic evolution; this long thread of self-organization that's moving

  • through us and beyond us. So, I thank you for your time and if you wanna look at the

  • book, Amazon and others have it. That's the general thesis and I think we have time for

  • a few questions. I'd be happy to answer them. So, thank you.

  • [applause]

  • So, total agreement; I love it.

  • [member #1 clears throat]

  • >>member #1: Hi. Two questions of--

  • >>Kevin: Yeah.

  • >>member #1: clarification, I think. In the middle of your talk, you were talking about

  • things being inevitable.

  • >>Kevin: Yeah.

  • >>member #1: Do you mean literal, like logically inevitable, or just overwhelmingly probable?

  • >>Kevin: Tell me the distinction between those two.

  • >>member #1: Logically, the logically thing that I was trying to get at is that there

  • is no way that it could have been prevented; it would just follow as a course of almost

  • mathematics versus probabilistically inevitable means, yeah, sooner or later it's likely enough

  • that sooner or later it would happen.

  • >>Kevin: I think the universe is basically probalistic. I think everything about the

  • universe is probalistic. So, I would side with probablistic rather than logically.

  • >>member #1: Ok. So in that sense, arguably it could have happened that we had bombed

  • each other back into the Stone Age, in the 50s, and there were no iPods. There would

  • have been no iPods for some period of time. That's still consistent with what you mean,

  • inevitable is that yeah--

  • >>Kevin: Sure, sure. I mean inevitable in a sense that there's inevitable progress in

  • human development, meaning that you start off as a fertilized egg, you grow into a fetus,

  • embryo, fetus, toddler and stuff. Now, and so, it's inevitable that a human become a

  • teenager. Now obviously, there's lots of humans who die before they ever become a teenager,

  • so is it inevitable you become a teenager? Well, if you die, then you say, logically

  • you can't. So, yes, there is, so probabilistically, it's inevitable.

  • >>member #1: Ok. The other question I was gonna ask to clarify is that I think you used

  • the word technology in a couple of different senses--

  • >>Kevin: Yes.

  • >>member #1: at least over the course of the talk.

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #1: The main thrust of it is when you seem to be talking about as if it's something

  • that has some kind of existence in itself--

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #1: in the way that society does. Is that--

  • >>Kevin: Yes. Right.

  • >>member #1: what you were trying to--

  • >>Kevin: So, I use the word, in the book, I'm a little bit more consistent, I use the

  • word technium, but that's a word I've coined so I was not trying to-- I was trying to ease

  • people into the idea, but the technium, as I said in the very beginning, is the system,

  • the interdependent system of things. It's not the collection of the individual artifacts.

  • It is a system, an ecosystem, you might think of it as super system of all the things that

  • our minds create together.

  • >>member #1: Right. Would you, you also used the phrase that technology was a force.

  • >>Kevin: Yes.

  • >>member #1: Do you, so you view it as a system and a force?

  • >>Kevin: Right. I think that the force of it is actually, it's the exotropic force.

  • So, it's a force in a way that you would say a big truck coming down the road is gonna

  • hit me. That's a force, it's a force created by an artifact. So, the force, in that sense,

  • is not, it's, you're actually talking about the energy of it and in my case, when I talk

  • about the force of technology, I'm talking about the exotropic force that is within technology.

  • >>member #2: Thanks for coming to speak here.

  • >>Kevin: Yeah.

  • >>member #2: A lot of what you say really rings deeply true to me and I'm struggling

  • with what the implications are to take it back down--

  • >>Kevin: Sure.

  • >>member #2: because I feel that has a moment of enlightenment reading what you've been

  • saying, but the fact is that on one hand, a lot of these trends are inevitable and I

  • think we, like--

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #2: if you work at Google, you realize like, on the one hand, we're trying really

  • hard to move ahead on it--

  • >>Kevin: Sure, sure, sure.

  • >>member #2: and the wolf's on our back the whole time, right? So, I think it's pretty

  • clear. But that in any kind of short meaningful period of time in terms of product cycles

  • or competition or what people are working on, it's totally not inevitable; in fact,

  • totally contingent on what we choose to work on or what other people choose to work on

  • and--

  • >>Kevin: Sure, sure.

  • >>member #2: so, I was actually fascinated to hear, and I forget if it's in your book

  • or in other writings that you actually have a lot of very specific ideas about what technology

  • you do and don't use and keep near your house and keep in your family. So, even--

  • >>Kevin: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

  • >>member #2: though we're all here bullish about this, do you think you can actually

  • intervene--

  • >>Kevin: Sure.

  • >>member #2: in lots of meaningful ways?

  • >>Kevin: Sure, sure, sure.

  • >>member #2: And it may be the longer term trends, are they appropriate for government

  • policy and things like that, or, in other words, how do you bring it back down for you

  • and for others?

  • >>Kevin: Sure. So, one thing I would say about inevitabilities is that there's a certain

  • sense which, and if you use the word inevitable, they're fighting words. It brings up lots

  • of reactions and I think rather than flee from inevitabilities, I think I would use

  • them as like a helpful signal; the fact that we can prepare for them. We can prepare our

  • education, we can prepare our businesses, our models to anticipate and maximize their

  • good when they come and minimize the harm. And so, if you knew, I mean, if you went back

  • to thesay, Moore's Law, in the 1960s, you believed Moore's Law and realized that

  • this was inevitable. Think of all the things you could do in the following 50 years, if

  • you really knew that every year, computers would get twice as fast and half as cheap,

  • you wouldn't have to know anything about IBM or Apple or Google to make a lot of money

  • first of all just on that one simple acceptance, but there's also lots of things you could

  • do for culture and education, really understanding that it was inevitable. So, the question you

  • asked, though, about how do you go back and how do we make into our own lives, is yes.

  • One of the things that's interesting is that while I'm preaching, in a certain sense, if

  • you want to actually increase the amount of technology in the world, I, myself, am actually

  • trying to minimize it in my own life, ok? And the reason why is that what it turns out

  • to be is to find that place that those tools that are best for your genius, you, it's not

  • all technology; it's gonna be a very select amount of technology and those other technologies

  • are actually distractions. And so, in a certain sense what you're actually trying to do is

  • find that small set of technologies that are appropriate for you and ignoring the rest.

  • And so, what, that's what the Amish do in a certain sense. There's a chapter in the

  • book about the Amish, which I hung out and I was in great admiration of them. They're

  • very, very selective, they're not anti, they're not Luddites, they're just very selective

  • in a curious way. I mean, they have horse and buggy and bonnets and stuff, but they

  • still, they use disposable diapers, they're really into chemical fertilizers, they use

  • genetically modified crops, ok? So, they're very, very selective, but the reason why I'm

  • not Amish is for, because they only do one half of it. They're trying to minimize the

  • technology in their lives, but they're not trying to maximize the technology for others.

  • They're actually dependant on us to do that. I think we have to do both. I am interested

  • in minimizing my selection while I maximize the larger pool for others to choose from,

  • ok? So, I think that tension, again, is also going on and I think we have, there's more

  • technology that's being invented and there's more of it every year that we could possibly

  • ever ourselves adopt. So, we have to have some criteria. I mean, we can't just randomly

  • try stuff; we have to begin to cultivate some kind of criteria, narrow it down while we

  • encourage the increasing choices for others. Yes.

  • >>member #3: So, earlier in your talk, I was really struck by something you said about

  • our expectations about technology, the rules--

  • >>Kevin: Yeah.

  • >>member #3: and the purpose. For me, my belief is that someday the universe is gonna kill

  • us all, right? I mean, a supernova or a comet strike or eco-catastrophe or whatever.

  • >>Kevin: Yeah.

  • >>member #3: And nothing lasts forever and I see technology as our best bet for postponing

  • that day as long as possible.

  • >>Kevin: Ok.

  • >>member #3: Do you, would you say that's the way to bet?

  • >>Kevin: Well, I'm gonna bet on technology; yes. I mean, I think, I think, what I'm trying

  • to suggest is that the difference, I mean I think that we becoming more technological,

  • that we are part of; the technium is not something that's out there, it's something we're part

  • of and so I don't see much distinction as we go along between us and technology. We

  • are already cyborgs. We're already there. So, so, and it's not just, I think we may

  • have multiple species. I mean, that's the real question. There are gonna be people who

  • say under no circumstances am I or my children ever gonna manipulate our genes, and there

  • are other people who say yeah, sign me up tomorrow. And we may become multiple species

  • and so, I think the very definition of what humans is, is we are in the process of redefining

  • it. Every time there's a new innovation in robotics or AI, we have to redefine who we

  • are. We thought we could do this, and what humans are. And it's not just what we are,

  • I think there are huge problems out there. The huge challenge we have is that we can

  • define who we can be and we don't even have any kind of process for that, for collectively

  • deciding what humans wanna be. So, I think we're at the beginning of this in terms of

  • even defining who we are. Yeah?

  • >>member #4: So, I guess one of the underlying principles here is that culture and technology

  • are evolutionary systems--

  • >>Kevin: Yes.

  • >>member #4: as for share a lot of interesting attributes with the evolutionary systems that

  • created life.

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #4: I think this is a very interesting area of study, but something that's hard for

  • a lot of people to swallow--

  • >>Kevin: Sure.

  • >>member #4: just because I think our general understanding of evolved systems is still

  • very weak.

  • >>Kevin: Right. We have the problem with evolution is we have a case of one, which is really

  • to journalize about.

  • >>member #4: Exactly.

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #4: Now we're getting more of these cases, but what can we do to enhance this

  • understanding, or further the study of evolutionary processes in general and what they, what they

  • could mean and how we could use them?

  • >>Kevin: Actually, I changed my mind about evolutionary systems when I realized we could

  • actually make another form in computers. We could do evolutionary studies and we can let

  • Darwinian evolution run in computers. And I think simulations and other things we actually

  • make more powerful systems and we let them go and we let them invent things; I think

  • will teach us more about evolution than studying more stuff in the field would be. So, that's

  • what I would say. I think the power of simulations, as a tool of science, has just begun. And

  • again, referring to my earlier talk on the evolution of the scientific method, I think

  • that's one of the big things that we're looking at in the future and the scientific method

  • is a role that simulations will play. So, yeah?

  • >>member #5: Great talk, thanks for coming. Lots of interesting ideas that provoke tons

  • of--

  • >>Kevin: Yes. Then I'm useful. That's the whole purpose of the book.

  • >>member #5: So, I have a question, though, about doesn't this actually reduce to something

  • else and this is a half measured [ ]?

  • >>Kevin: Ok.

  • >>member #5: Technology, you know you talk about simulation and--

  • >>Kevin: Yeah.

  • >>member #5: indeed, we can simulate evolutionary systems, but as soon as we pull the plug or

  • the power supply no longer has coal--

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #5: it's done. It will not self-perpetuate.

  • >>Kevin: Right, right.

  • >>member #5: And so, at some point it may be inevitable that it will self-perpetuate,

  • but I kinda doubt it at this point.

  • >>Kevin: Right, right, right. Right now, we are the sexual organs of technology. We're--

  • >>member #5: Right.

  • >>Kevin: necessary for it to reproduce.

  • >>member #5: So, when you say what technology wants, that personification makes me think

  • actually we are the creators of technology, so it's what we want and even the supporting

  • technologies that are necessary to support other technologies--

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #5: are just back chaining the complexities and dependencies, but it's still ultimately

  • what we want and if we're driven by the selfish gene, which is driven by some even more primitive,

  • prokaryotic--

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #5: bacterial messaging--

  • >Kevin: Right, right.

  • >>member #5: or whatever, then ultimately doesn't this reduce to what does information

  • want?

  • >>Kevin: Yeah.

  • >>member #5: And so, does this bias and why are you framing it this way?

  • >>Kevin: No, I mean, I think it's a really good question if you trace back and say, "What's,

  • how did life self-organize? Where did that want come from?" It's a huge mystery. And

  • that's not even the beginning of the mysteries. If you go back and say, "Well, it's all about

  • information", we have no idea what information is. Ask any cosmologist, any astronomer, "Is

  • information being conserved in the universe or not?" And they say, "Don't know." What's

  • the definition of complexity? "Don't know." And so, the mysteries in this are profound

  • and I'm not suggesting that there's, this isn't gonna solve any mystery, I'm only suggesting

  • that in fact, we can place technology in this frame of reference to these other mysteries.

  • Maybe that's the best way to say it.

  • >>member #5: Ok. Is there like a key, take-away piece of utility you get from that?

  • >>Kevin: Yes, and I think that is that the distinction between life and between technology

  • and life is very thin. That, basically, think of the technium as an extension, an acceleration

  • of evolution and that we will do, we'll have much better understanding where technology

  • is headed if we understand that it's actually closer to an evolutionary force than it is

  • something that we're just inventing with our minds.

  • >>member #5: Thanks.

  • >>Kevin: Yeah,

  • >>member #6: So, to me it's surprising and also encouraging that you take such an optimistic

  • view of what technology wants--

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #6: with respect to creating more choices, possibilities, making people's lives

  • better, because if, so, I mean technology is this extension of evolution and it is this

  • sort of by-product of this process that we are just one part of--

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #6: our subjective experience and our feeling of good versus bad is independent

  • of this in some sense, except in that it causes, at the system level, these things to continue

  • happening. To me it seems like, I mean, if you look at, for instance, the evolution of

  • multicellular life, right? This was a tremendous win for life in general, but for single cells--

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #6: for instance, this may have actually been terrible. Now you've got things that

  • need to--

  • >>Kevin: Sure.

  • >>member #6: spend their entire existence as a stomach cell, say.

  • >>Kevin: Orwell that's the same kind of thing with the invention of oxygen--not

  • the invention-- but the creation of oxygen, which killed off all of the previous, a lot

  • of the previous life was killed by oxygen, which of course was necessary for the other

  • life. So, yeah.

  • >>member #6: Exactly. So, I mean, you have this thing where actually the individual actors

  • instead give rise to this next level of evolution, tend to not always get the best deal out of

  • it.

  • >>Kevin: Right, right. So, one of the things that actually, I think, that evolution is

  • moving towards and this may speak to it, but I didn't put it on this list because it wasn't,

  • this list was not complete, is actually, we actually, is making increasing choice and

  • freedom of choices and degrees of freedom. And so, as individuals, we actually have right

  • now, compared to say, ten thousand years ago, we have far more free choice than they had

  • ten thousand years ago. We, cause there's this, we actually have more free choice, both,

  • I mean, in terms of our minds because we're more aware than say, someone who had no language

  • at all. And so, I think that even as individuals, we do have increasing free choice. So, it's

  • that and in the fact that we realize that our choices are part of something larger and

  • I think that dichotomy between being masters and servants will never leave us. It's not

  • gonna be nature/nurture. You can't unravel the two. Master/servant, you can't unravel

  • the two.

  • >>member #6: Thanks.

  • >>Kevin: Yep.

  • >>member #7: So, I'm wondering how this, how you take, say, security technologies into

  • account in this. I think there's a situation where, let's say, in a video game, for example,

  • if you just give everybody more power--

  • >>Kevin: Yeah.

  • >>member #7: and they become, so everybody is a superhero, then we can all essentially

  • attack each other and it becomes not very interesting anymore because everyone is just

  • ridiculously overpowered.

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #7: And it seems like by giving people more choices, you're giving more power to

  • interfere with other people's choices.

  • >>Kevin: Well, there's something, Barry Schwartz has talked about the tyranny of choice; this

  • idea that if you give people too many choices, they become paralyzed. And so, here's a solution.

  • Again, I'm -- this is my techno-centric view. I think the solution to overwhelming number

  • of choices is more technology that helps us make those choices. And that's what Amazon

  • recommendation is, that's what those collaborative filtering is. And so, the solution to like,

  • more choices is another choice to use choice filtering, choice aiding technology. And I

  • think the same thing with what you're suggesting is if there's all these choices, well, the

  • solution's gonna be--sorry to say it-- more technology, better technology.

  • >>member #7: Well, I guess my question is when people have different ideas about what

  • they want to do--

  • >>Kevin: Right.

  • >>member #7: and they can interfere with each other, then having more choices isn't this

  • benign thing. It affects, it can negatively affect other people. And one of the things

  • that you wanna see created are these like--

  • >>Kevin: Right. But the only other solution, I mean, if it isn't a better choice or better

  • technology for choices, is less choices and I just don't think that--that's what I'm saying.

  • That goes against the entire arc of evolution, so I would not bet on that. I would always

  • bet on better technology for making choices than less choices.

  • >>member #7: Uh-huh. Fair enough.

  • >>Kevin: Ok.

  • >>woman moderator: Do you have time for one more?

  • >>Kevin: I have a last question and then, I guess, you're almost seven minutes after.

  • I guess it's time to move. Yeah?

  • >>member #8: So, you said humanity was the sexual organs of technology?

  • >>Kevin: Yeah, well. Ok.

  • [Kevin laughs]

  • >>member #8: Do you think that'll--

  • >>Kevin: That's not my line; by the way, I think it's from Kluun.

  • >>member #8: Will that continue or do you think that'll change eventually?

  • >>Kevin: No, that's, so right now I'm arguing that we are giving the technium a little bit

  • of autonomy. So, autonomy is not binary, it's not like you're there or you're not there

  • or you have little bits of it, including us. We're not totally autonomous. So, I think

  • we're going to increase the number, the amount of autonomy. Can the technium ever be autonomous?

  • Well, in the sense that we're part of it, not really. I mean, we will always be part

  • of the technium. So, it's not as if we're gonna be separate from it, or ever separate

  • from it. So, can it, I mean, yes, I think there's gonna be certainly increasing amount

  • of technology, of excuse me, of autonomy in the technium. Will it need us to not reproduce?

  • I don't know, I don't know, I can imagine different scenarios; lemme put it that way.

  • I think there's multiple scenarios. Yeah, it's inevitable that it would in some cases,

  • but there may be other cases, other things that we do where it isn't. So, I, in the sense

  • that you want to have, it wants to have multiple possibilities, I think, what I'm saying is

  • I don't think it remains one species. I think we see a divergence. So there's some possibilities

  • where it will be completely without us and there's others where we're still essential.

  • Those, most of the time, the future is not a single, I'm not talking about a ladder where

  • we climbing up a single race. These, these trajectories are not, these trajectories are

  • like explosions. They're not like going along a series on a ladder. So, again, I, thanks

  • for sticking around. I really appreciate the questions and I hope you enjoy the book. Thanks

  • for having me here.

  • [applause]

>>presenter: So, Kevin Kelly is not only one of the foremost innovators and writers about

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ケビン・ケリー"テクノロジーが求めるもの」|Googleで講演 (Kevin Kelly: "What Technology Wants" | Talks at Google)

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    Ho Liu に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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