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  • Helping Barack Obama with his golf score was not one of the reasons Janet Yellen gave

  • for why the Federal Reserve is gonna precede cautiously with future interest rate rises.

  • That was just a mad thing that Donald Trump said last year,

  • when he accused the Fed chair of keeping rates low at the behest of a president,

  • who wants to be out playing golf and doesn't want to see a bubble bursting.

  • Ms. Yellen's dovish remarks on Tuesday showed her concern not with Mr. Obama, but with financial markets.

  • And markets responded to her remarks in predictably straightforward fashion, by sending equities higher.

  • With the exception of US bank stocks, the S&P500 banks index fell sharply on Ms. Yellen's remarks.

  • And although it rebounded on Wednesday morning, that seesawing suggests a complicated debate about how investors should think about this sector.

  • This year, banks have traded as if as a proxy for year-end rate expectations.

  • They went down and skepticism was growing that the Fed would follow through with all those 2016 rises,

  • it'd predicted in its official projections.

  • And the sell-off crescendoed in February, when markets were implying that there may be no rate rises at all this year-end,

  • long-term rates had fallen with the deteriorating outlook for the global economy and China.

  • Low rates narrow the available margin between banks' cost of borrowing and the interest that they can charge on lending.

  • Now because the gloom over the long-term economic outlook has lifted somewhat since February,

  • Ms. Yellen's promise this week of lower rates for longer is likely to have the effect of

  • steepening the yield curve and helping bank profitability,

  • hence that rebound on Wednesday morning.

  • The biggest banks in the US may catch other tailwinds, too.

  • Shareholders and analysts have begun debating strategic options for improving returns.

  • The well-connected analyst team, KBW, has suggested that Citi group should break itself up.

  • And at least one significant shareholder of Bank of America has told its chief executive that

  • they believe the company should separate the retail bank from the investment banking and wealth management arms.

  • Now these are isolated calls for now, but if they take hold,

  • then bank investors may have more to consider

  • than just the likely level of US interest rates at the end of the year and the end of the Obama administration.

  • When of course the president will be tending to his golf score full time.

  • Stephen Foley for the Financial Times.

Helping Barack Obama with his golf score was not one of the reasons Janet Yellen gave

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銀行株はどう動くか|ショートビュー (What will move bank stocks | Short View)

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    Kristi Yang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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