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Tokyo's coach drivers spent February
bombarded by a better parking manners leaflet campaign.
A fussy push to spare the capital from
a supposed road-clogging surfeit of foreign tourists
But will it be the traffic wardens or the Bank of Japan
that clears the streets first?
The congestion peril may be exaggerated
but the underlying numbers are not.
Japan's inbound tourism boom continued to pace last year
with the visitor tally coming in just shy of the 20 million mark.
A quarter of those were from Mainland China.
107% increase over 2014.
analyst at an era predicted another 22% gain
in overall tourist number by the end of 2016
And see the total surpassing 30 million by the time the Tokyo Olympics open in 2020.
Even more striking is the rising tourist spending, up 71% in 2015
and at 3.5 trillion yen,
now ranked in value alongside some of Japan's most famous export industries
auto parts, steel products, and electronic components.
Brokers sighting benefits for retail, transport, and property sectors
heavily pitch the tourism story in their efforts to convince reluctant global fund manages
to pile back into Japan's stock market.
The fly in the ointment here is the yen
and the tendency of more bullish observers
to under estimate the price sensitivity of Chinese shoppers
at 120 yen to the dollar, a Cartier watch was cheaper in Tokyo than in Seoul or Hong Kong
according to sales staff in Tokyo's Ginza district
the math still work at current levels of 113 yen to the dollar
but start to fall apart if the Japanese currency heads much higher
Since the Bank of Japan's negative rates announcement in January,
the yen has flatly defied the governor's gambit and strengthened.
Some now expected it to break 110 yen to the dollar over the next couple of months
After 3 years supporting the economics story with its weakness
the yen supply and demand fundementals changed last year.
argued analyst of J.P. Morgan
Retained corporate earnings abroad of being repatriated and investment trusts,
the board record 17 trillion yen in overseas assets last year
[but] are expected to start on winding some of that.
The BOJ's two-day policy meeting ends on Tuesday, and very few economists expect it to move.
Currency markets are on a hair trigger,
but so too are Mr. and Mrs. Zheng of Guangzhou,
currently planning where to go this summer.


Japan: tourism and the yen I Short View

149 タグ追加 保存
Kristi Yang 2016 年 3 月 15 日 に公開
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