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  • We need to talk about dividends.

  • Really, we do.

  • The notion that receiving too much income from companies

  • might seem strange in a world of ultra-low interest rates.

  • Yet for UK-listed natural resource companies,

  • the imperative to deliver shareholders their yield is a big problem.

  • In general, dividends come out of a company's cash flow

  • once the finance director has figured out how much she needs to spend on investment

  • As commodity prices have tumbled,

  • the free cash flow available for many of these commodity producers is now less than the amount going out for dividends.

  • Cue sales of mines and oil fields and more debt just to pay off shareholders.

  • The miners at least have seen the light.

  • Several of the largest, such as Glencore, Vale, and Anglo American,

  • decided last year to cut their payouts to preserve cash flow.

  • If metals prices do stop falling this year, a big "if",

  • these actions could well stabilize the increasingly precarious financial positions of the miners.

  • So, good for their long term health

  • and bad for the unblinking, impassive shareholder who just wants his money

  • Over the past five years,

  • mining and energy companies have provided 27% of total dividends for the FTSE 100,

  • according to Henderson's global income team.

  • And that is a lot.

  • As a comparison, the US figure was a third of that amount.

  • UK-listed miners accounted for about 9% of this FTSE sum,

  • and their contribution will in fact fall in the year ahead.

  • Yet, what about the silent Goliaths in the other corner,

  • who keep shaking their heads when approached about the subject?

  • A fifth of FTSE dividends will come from these oil and gas companies

  • really just Royal Dutch Shell and BP.

  • Indeed that rose a bit last year for UK shareholders

  • helped by the fact that the two pay in US dollars, and the dollar went up a bit.

  • In two of the last three years,

  • both of these supermajors have had to sell assets to help pay for dividends.

  • That can't continue forever.

  • In the past week, two US oil companies, Conoco and Anadarko have slashed their own payouts.

  • Now look, dividend yields for Shell and BP are 8%, their historical highs.

  • It would seem that the market does want to talk about dividend cuts.

We need to talk about dividends.

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配当金の話をしたい|ショートビュー (We need to talk about dividends | Short View)

  • 48 5
    Kristi Yang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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