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  • Two moons are turning the tides in emerging markets, according to Michael Power, Strategist at Investec.

  • China's dwindling demand for the resources exported by developing nations is an old narrative.

  • Years of declining growth rates and rising unemployment have caused lasting damage across the emerging world.

  • But it's the other moon, represented by the US Federal Reserve,

  • which is now causing particular consternation.

  • The Fed is the definitive source of global financial liquidity,

  • and the surge in landing to developing countries that propelled much of their growth in the last 15 years

  • has now come to a halt.

  • This may give way to a vicious circle of deleveraging, according to the Bank for International Settlements,

  • which is known as the central bank of central banks.

  • The developing world accounts for more than half of global economic growth.

  • Their misfortunes cannot but rebound upon the West.

  • The total stock of dollar denominated credit in bonds and bank loans to emerging markets

  • was 3.3 trillion USD at the end of September.

  • That's down from 3.36 trillion USD at the end of June.

  • And the irresistible allure of cheap credit inspired households from Brazil to Thailand and Turkey,

  • to spend beyond their means.

  • Injecting more liquidity into an engorged financial system with quantitative easing,

  • may now be doing more harm than good in the developing world.

  • Investors are deserting emerging market assets in droves.

  • Capital outflows hit an estimated 735 billion USD last year.

  • That marked the first year of net outflow since 1998, according to the Institute of International Finance.

  • Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund

  • warned last week of the threat to global growth,

  • that an impending crisis in the emerging markets would pose.


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新興市場に暗い風が吹き荒れる|FTマーケッツ (Gloomy tide taints emerging markets | FT Markets)

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    Kristi Yang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日