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  • Hello, and welcome to a second Note for today, coming to you twice

  • because unfortunately I have to report the world's stock markets in their first bear market in some five years.

  • This is the FTSE-All World indexes now down at the close here in the Wall Street.

  • They are more than 20 percent from its recent high.

  • You do see if you look at it in broader context,

  • that it's actually not that long since the last bear market that was when fears over the U.S. credit limit debt ceiling

  • collided with worries about the eurozone to give us a slightly greater bear market back in 2011.

  • Obviously, still doesn't compare with the fallout from the dot-com bust,

  • or the credit crisis, so there's still a lot further we could fall alternatively.

  • This is still not really such a deep market recession.

  • Now, if we want to go through the guts of today,

  • we did actually see the S&P rise quite significantly after in the afternoon.

  • Largely thanks to market rumours that OPEC is about to get its acts together,

  • and coordinates to try to push up oil prices.

  • Obviously if that turns out to be true, that would help many risk assets,

  • even if it's not exactly having dependency on it, to all who worries them playing the greatest concern at this point about banks.

  • Beyond that, you saw a continued fall in the dollar,

  • you saw very dramatic sell-offs in Europe and in Asia,

  • and you saw further pressure on banks while gold continued to prosper.

  • The other very important trend I think we need to look at briefly.

  • So we take a look at this chart.

  • The 10-year bond yield of this point is now almost back to its lowest.

  • It has been in the last three years.

  • And once it gets through that point it doesn't, wouldn't take much to do that.

  • We will be very close to the post-war low that was hit in 2012,

  • certainly many people do see it even six months ago that was going to be an enduring low that would last for a matter of years, if not decades.

  • Now, we again seem to see a weight of money moving back into the bond market.

  • It's very difficult to see how this can go on much further.

  • But there it is, quite remarkable resurgence in the bond market while we see the bear market in oil stocks.

Hello, and welcome to a second Note for today, coming to you twice

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クマさんにご挨拶 I オーサーズノート (Greet the bear I Authers Note)

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    Ya Ju Hsieh に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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