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  • Just a couple of months ago, investors felt neutral about political risk.

  • The Paris attacks and the shooting down of a Russian jet over Turkish airspace had little impact on the market.

  • It feels different now.

  • Frazzled markets feed political risk. The smell of market fear is amplifying every danger out there.

  • Trump, Syria Iran tensions, ISIS, migrant crisis, far-right election success.

  • That's why sterling is under attack.

  • With astonishing rapidity, Brexit has shot up the worry scale of investors.

  • The issue is all over the analyst community.

  • UBS notes the spike in Brexit mentions on Google since the start of 2016.

  • But are investors Brexit fixated just because EU referendum year has probably arrived?

  • The pound is down 6.4% in the last three months.

  • But the pace of the decline has quickened, because the new year has seen the market turn nasty.

  • Sterling is in investors' sights because market anxiety is turning them away from anything deemed risky.

  • The price of UK credit default swaps has shot up since January 1st.

  • Right now, Brexit makes the UK feel like a risky asset.

  • Now, that was far from the market's view last year.

  • As the pound drove on towards 1.60, and the bank of England turned hawkish on rates.

  • The maybe better reasons why sterling should fall.

  • The dominant issue of the UK's current account deficit, which is coming in at around 4.5% of GDP is one.

  • The bank of England's new dovish tone is another.

  • But political risk is the flavor of this sour month when it comes to bashing the pound.

  • It's wilting even before David Cameron has set a referendum date.

  • Sterling came under some pressure ahead of the 2014's Scottish referendum and the 2015 general election.

  • As we see here, there's the Scottish referendum impact and there is the election impact.

  • But the decline and the fall is nothing as big as it is at the moment and certainly, never this early.

  • Market turmoil is the reason for its decline, not the prospect of the UK leaving the EU,

  • serious though that may be.

  • If some market normality is restored, that may not stop that pound weakening further,

  • but it may put Brexit and sterling's real value in a better context

  • and make investors a bit more sanguine about political risk.

Just a couple of months ago, investors felt neutral about political risk.

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攻撃を受けるスターリング|ショートビュー (Sterling under attack | Short View)

  • 39 5
    Kristi Yang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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