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  • Oils headed dramatically lower since the start of 2016,

  • losing almost 20% in just 7 sessions.

  • That's been driven in part by continued concerns,

  • leading all the way back to the middle of 2014 to currently about supply overtaking demand.

  • However, past demands had been relatively robust up until now,

  • we are starting to see signs of slowing demand growth in key countries including the US and China.

  • China's relationship with the oil price is key.

  • China has driven global demand growth over the past decade, so any slowdown that we see in China's consumption of crude,

  • even if it continues to rise we just need to see that growth slow that will provoke a real concern to the oil market.

  • OPEC, the oil producers cartel, is reliant on rising global demand growth,

  • in order to absorb the surface and hopefully start see the market stabilize at a higher level later this year.

  • In the short run, the oil price can become unbounded.

  • If it falls below the $30 a barrel mark,

  • we could see further selling and traders trying to target at $20 level,

  • which some investment banks including Goldman Sachs, Citi and Morgan-Stanley have all said the possibility in an extreme scenario.

  • Whereby either storage tanks become too full,

  • or currency movements lead to greater pressure coming on the oil prices as a result of the strength in the dollar,

  • hitting all dollar-priced commodities.

  • However, we may also start to see more projects shutting in around those level,

  • which could provide a degree of stability for the price.

Oils headed dramatically lower since the start of 2016,

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原油は90秒で売られる|FTマーケッツ (Oil sell off in 90 seconds | FT Markets)

  • 47 3
    Kristi Yang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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