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  • China's economy has bumped.

  • The question is whether the rest of the world feels a gentle ripple or tidal wave.

  • Now China is more than just a cog in the global economy.

  • No one should underestimate its ability to affect us all.

  • But how?

  • At 18 percent of the world economy, China is the second largest importer on Earth.

  • Neighbors such as Japan, South Korea are deeply dependent on its success.

  • Germany is at risk as it produces capital goods, and commodity specialists such as Australia rely on coal, iron, or exports.

  • Pain here will hurt, but it's rarely decisive.

  • And although China's currency has gone down six percent against the US dollar, this is no currency war.

  • The renminbi has modestly risen against most of its main trading partners.

  • China worries of help *drag bring crude down to a fresh eleven-year low below 33 dollars a barrel.

  • Pity Russia, Brazil, the gulf states have supplies to the all commodity sectors.

  • But low commodity prices mostly redistribute income rather than *dynamite economic prospects. Producers lose, consumers gain.

  • The IMF still thinks that the net effect of lower commodity prices is positive for the global economy.

  • A China slow down weakens inflation repression around the world.

  • At worst, a deflation respire will cut incomes and make debts unpayable. That's worrying.

  • But low inflation also gives policy makers additional ways to keep monetary policy looser for longer, so there is a silver lining.

  • The Panacea effect of confidence has the greatest potential to shock.

  • If China's troubles persuade companies to ditch investment and households to tighten their belts, the global economic outlook can change radically for the worse.

  • 2008 told everyone that once confidence has gone, companies, banks, markets, and the financial system are all vulnerable.

  • So, gentle ripple or tidal wave, that depends most on whether the rest of us panic.

China's economy has bumped.


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B1 中級

中国メルトダウンの脅威を測る|FTワールド (Measuring threat of China meltdown | FT World)

  • 37 3
    Kristi Yang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日