What do I know that would cause me, a reticent, Midwestern scientist, to get myself arrested in front of the White House protesting?

抗議して逮捕されました

And what would you do if you knew what I know?

中西部出身で 控え目な科学者の私が

Let's start with how I got to this point.

こうせざるを得ないような

I was lucky to grow up at a time when it was not difficult for the child of a tenant farmer to make his way to the state university.

何を知っていたのでしょうか？

And I was really lucky to go to the University of Iowa, where I could study under Professor James Van Allen,

では もしみなさんが私と同じことを

who built instruments for the first U.S. satellites.

知っていたらどうしたでしょうか？

Professor Van Allen told me about observations of Venus, that there was intense microwave radiation.

まずは私がどんな経緯でそんなことをすることになったのかをお話しします

Did it mean that Venus had an ionosphere? Or was Venus extremely hot?

恵まれたことに 私が育った時代は

The right answer, confirmed by the Soviet Venera spacecraft, was that Venus was very hot--900 degrees Fahrenheit.

借地で農業を営んでいる家の子供でも

And it was kept hot by a thick carbon dioxide atmosphere.

州立大学に通うのが

I was fortunate to join NASA and successfully propose an experiment to fly to Venus.

難しくない時代でした

Our instrument took this image of the veil of Venus, which turned out to be a smog of sulfuric acid.

幸運にも

But while our instrument was being built, I became involved in calculations of the greenhouse effect here on Earth,

アイオワ州立大学に通うと

because we realized that our atmospheric composition was changing.

ジェームズ・ヴァン・アレン教授のもとで勉強できました

Eventually, I resigned as principal investigator on our Venus experiment

アメリカ最初の衛星の

because a planet changing before our eyes is more interesting and important. Its changes will affect all of humanity.

装置を作った人物です

The greenhouse effect had been well understood for more than a century.

ヴァン・アレン教授は 火星では

British physicist John Tyndall, in the 1850's, made laboratory measurements of the infrared radiation, which is heat.

強力なマイクロ波が放出されていると

And he showed that gasses such as CO2 absorb heat, thus acting like a blanket warming Earth's surface.

教えてくれました

I worked with other scientists to analyze Earth climate observations.

この放出が意味するのは火星が電離圏で包まれているのか？

In 1981, we published an article in Science magazine

それとも非常に熱い星なのか？

concluding that observed warming of 0.4 degrees Celsius in the prior century was consistent with the greenhouse effect of increasing CO2.

この疑問の答えは

That Earth would likely warm in the 1980's, and warming would exceed the noise level of random weather by the end of the century.

ソビエト連邦のベネラ宇宙船に確認されて

We also said that the 21st century would see shifting climate zones, creation of drought-prone regions in North America and Asia,

火星が非常に熱い星と分かりました

erosion of ice sheets, rising sea levels, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.

華氏900度という高温です

All of these impacts have since either happened or are now well under way.

火星が高温を維持しているのは

That paper was reported on the front page of the New York Times and led to me testifying to Congress in the 1980's,

厚い二酸化炭素で覆われた大気層によるものです

testimony in which I emphasized that global warming increases both extremes of the Earth's water cycle.

恵まれたことに 私は

Heatwaves and droughts on one hand, directly from the warming,

NASA 職員になり火星への

but also, because a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor with its latent energy, rainfall will become in more extreme events.

試験探査の提案に成功しました

There will be stronger storms and greater flooding.

探査船の装置がこの画像を撮って

Global warming hoopla became time-consuming and distracted me from doing science --

火星のベールをとり

partly because I had complained that the White House altered my testimony.

火星は硫酸の霧で

So I decided to go back to strictly doing science and leave the communication to others.

包まれていることが分かりました

By 15 years later, evidence of global warming was much stronger.

この装置の組み立てを待つ間に

Most of the things mentioned in our 1981 paper were facts.

私はこの地球の

I had the privilege to speak twice to the president's climate task force.

温室効果の算出にも

But energy policies continued to focus on finding more fossil fuels.

関わるようになりました

By then we had two grandchildren, Sophie and Connor.

NASA は地球の大気の構成が

I decided that I did not want them in the future to say, "Opa understood what was happening, but he didn't make it clear."

変化していることに気が付いたからです

So I decided to give a public talk criticizing the lack of an appropriate energy policy.

結果として 私は

I gave the talk at the University of Iowa in 2004 and at the 2005 meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

火星試験探査の主任研究員の

This led to calls from the White House to NASA headquarters

職を退きました

and I was told that I could not give any talks or speak with the media without prior explicit approval by NASA headquarters.

目の前で変わっていく惑星の方に

After I informed the New York Times about these restrictions, NASA was forced to end the censorship. But there were consequences.

より関心があり 重要だからです

I had been using the first line of the NASA mission statement, "To understand and protect the home planet," to justify my talks.

地球の様々な変化は人類全体に影響するものです

Soon the first line of the mission statement was deleted, never to appear again.

温室効果は１世紀以上にもわたり

Over the next few years, I was drawn more and more into trying to communicate the urgency of a change in energy policies, while still researching the physics of climate change.

十分に理解されています

Let me describe the most important conclusion from the physics --

1850年代に

first, from Earth's energy balance and, second, from Earth's climate history.

英国の物理学者ジョン・チンダルは

Adding CO2 to the air is like throwing another blanket on the bed. It reduces Earth's heat radiation to space, so there's a temporary energy imbalance.

研究室内で赤外線放射を

More energy is coming in than going out, until Earth warms up enough to again radiate to space as much energy as it absorbs from the Sun.

測定する方法を確立しました

So the key quantity is Earth's energy imbalance. Is there more energy coming in than going out?

赤外線放射は熱を意味します

If so, more warming is in the pipeline. It will occur without adding any more greenhouse gasses.

彼は二酸化炭素のような気体が熱を吸収することを示し

Now finally, we can measure Earth's energy imbalance precisely by measuring the heat content in Earth's heat reservoirs.

この吸収が地球の表面を温める布団のように

The biggest reservoir, the ocean, was the least well measured, until more than 3,000 Argo floats were distributed around the world's ocean.

作用していると示しました

These floats reveal that the upper half of the ocean is gaining heat at a substantial rate.

私は他の科学者とも共同研究して

The deep ocean is also gaining heat at a smaller rate, and energy is going into the net melting of ice all around the planet.

地球気候変動の観察結果を分析しました

And the land, to depths of tens of meters, is also warming.

そして1981年には

The total energy imbalance now is about six-tenths of a watt per square meter.

サイエンス誌に研究論文を発表しました

That may not sound like much, but when added up over the whole world, it's enormous.

その結論は 過去１世紀で

It's about 20 times greater than the rate of energy use by all of humanity.

気温が摂氏 0.4 度上昇した

It's equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day 365 days per year.

という現象が 増加した二酸化炭素量

That's how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.

が起こすと想定される温室効果の

This imbalance, if we want to stabilize climate, means that we must reduce CO2 from 391 ppm, parts per million, back to 350 ppm.

計算値と一致するという結論でした

That is the change needed to restore energy balance and prevent further warming.

結論では地球は1980年代に恐らく気温上昇を迎えて

Climate change deniers argue that the Sun is the main cause of climate change.

20世紀末には この気温上昇が

But the measured energy imbalance occurred during the deepest solar minimum in the record, when the Sun's energy reaching Earth was least.

天気の変動が確率的誤差を

Yet, there was more energy coming in than going out.

超えるだろうとしていました

This shows that the effect of the Sun's variations on climate is overwhelmed by the increasing greenhouse gasses, mainly from burning fossil fuels.

これに加えて 私たちの論文は 21世紀には

Now consider Earth's climate history.

気候帯の変動が発生し

These curves for global temperature, atmospheric CO2 and sea level were derived from ocean cores and Antarctic ice cores,

北米やアジアでは干ばつが―

from ocean sediments and snowflakes that piled up year after year over 800,000 years forming a two-mile thick ice sheet.

頻発する地域ができて

As you see, there's a high correlation between temperature, CO2 and sea level.

氷床が浸食されて 海水面が上昇して

Careful examination shows that the temperature changes slightly lead the CO2 changes by a few centuries.

皆が挑戦した伝説の"北西航路"が開けると伝えていました

Climate change deniers like to use this fact to confuse and trick the public to confuse and trick the public by saying, "Look, the temperature causes CO2 to change, to confuse and trick the public by saying, "Look, the temperature causes CO2 to change, not vice versa."

論文で報告した影響は全て

But that lag is exactly what is expected.

もうすでに現実になったか

Small changes in Earth's orbit that occur over tens to hundreds of thousands of years alter the distribution of sunlight on Earth.

もしくは進行中です

When there is more sunlight at high latitudes in summer, ice sheets melt.

この論文はニューヨークタイムズに１面で取り上げられました そして―

Shrinking ice sheets make the planet darker, so it absorbs more sunlight and becomes warmer.

1980年代に 環境の状況について

A warmer ocean releases CO2, just as a warm Coca-Cola does. And more CO2 causes more warming.

議会で証言することになりました

So CO2, methane, and ice sheets were feedbacks that amplified global temperature change causing these ancient climate oscillations to be huge,

証言では 私は地球温暖化によって

even though the climate change was initiated by a very weak forcing.

地球の水分が循環するときの両極の現象の激しさを

The important point is that these same amplifying feedbacks will occur today. The physics does not change.

よりに顕著にすると伝えました

As Earth warms, now because of extra CO2 we put in the atmosphere, ice will melt, and CO2 and methane will be released by warming ocean and melting permafrost.

一方では気温上昇の直接的影響で

While we can't say exactly how fast these amplifying feedbacks will occur, it is certain they will occur, unless we stop the warming.

熱波と干ばつが発生し 他方では

There is evidence that feedbacks are already beginning.

より高い温度の大気が

Precise measurements by GRACE, the gravity satellite, reveal that both Greenland and Antarctica are now losing mass, several hundred cubic kilometers per year.

水蒸気を蓄積して

And the rate has accelerated since the measurements began nine years ago.

より強い潜在エネルギーを持つため

Methane is also beginning to escape from the permafrost.

降雨がより強烈な

What sea level rise can we look forward to?

ものになると伝えました

The last time CO2 was 390 ppm, today's value, sea level was higher by at least 15 meters, 50 feet.

より強力な嵐が起こり より深刻な洪水を引き起こします

Where you are sitting now would be under water.

地球温暖化の騒動は 私の時間を

Most estimates are that, this century, we will get at least one meter.

非常に多く取るものになって

I think it will be more if we keep burning fossil fuels, perhaps even five meters, which is 18 feet, this century or shortly thereafter.

科学に費やす時間を減らされました

The important point is that we will have started a process that is out of humanity's control.

私の証言を変えてしまった

Ice sheets would continue to disintegrate for centuries. There would be no stable shoreline.

ホワイトハウスに抗議した為でもありました

The economic consequences are almost unthinkable. Hundreds of New Orleans-like devastations around the world.

このため 私自身は科学に専念して

What may be more reprehensible, if climate denial continues, is extermination of species.

他の人たちに

The monarch butterfly could be one of the 20 to 50 percent of all species that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates

社会へ報告していく活動を任せようと決めました

will be ticketed for extinction by the end of the century if we stay on business-as-usual fossil fuel use.

それから15年たった頃

Global warming is already affecting people.

地球温暖化の証拠はより強力なものとなりました

The Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico heatwave and drought last year, Moscow the year before and Europe in 2003,

1981年の論文で私たちが指摘した多くの点は

were all exceptional events, more than three standard deviations outside the norm.

事実となっていました

Fifty years ago, such anomalies covered only two- to three-tenths of one percent of the land area.

私は 大統領直轄の気候変動タスクフォースに対して

In recent years, because of global warming, they now cover about 10 percent -- an increase by a factor of 25 to 50.

２回ほど話す機会に恵まれました

So we can say with a high degree of confidence that the severe Texas and Moscow heatwaves were not natural; they were caused by global warming.

しかし エネルギー政策は化石燃料資源を

An important impact, if global warming continues, will be on the breadbasket of our nation and the world, the Midwest and Great Plains,

発見することに力を注ぎ続けました

which are expected to become prone to extreme droughts, worse than the Dust Bowl,

その頃には 私には２人の孫ができました

within just a few decades, if we let global warming continue.

ソフィーとコナーという孫です

How did I get dragged deeper and deeper into an attempt to communicate,

将来この孫たちに「祖父は地球に

giving talks in 10 countries, getting arrested, burning up the vacation time that I had accumulated over 30 years?

起こっていることが分かってたのに

More grandchildren helped me along. Jake is a super-positive, enthusiastic boy.

みんなにきちんと伝えなかった」

Here at age two and a half years, he thinks he can protect his two and a half-day-old little sister.

と言われないように決断しました

It would be immoral to leave these young people with a climate system spiraling out of control.

そして エネルギー政策による適切な対応ができていないと

Now the tragedy about climate change is that we can solve it with a simple, honest approach

公の場で批判し主張していくことに決めました

of a gradually rising carbon fee collected from fossil fuel companies

2004年にアイオワ州立大学と

and distributed 100 percent electronically every month to all legal residents on a per capita basis, with the government not keeping one dime.

2005年の米国地球物理学連合で

Most people would get more in the monthly dividend than they'd pay in increased prices.

講演しました

This fee and dividend would stimulate the economy and innovations, creating millions of jobs.

このためホワイトハウスは

It is the principal requirement for moving us rapidly to a clean energy future.

私がNASA本部の事前承認を得ずに

Several top economists are coauthors on this proposition.

講演したりメディアと話すことを

Jim DiPeso of Republicans for Environmental Protection describes it thusly:

禁止させるように

"Transparent. Market-based. Does not enlarge government. Leaves energy decisions to individual choices. Sounds like a conservative climate plan."

NASA 本部に要求してきました

But instead of placing a rising fee on carbon emissions to make fossil fuels pay their true cost to society,

これらの禁止事項をニューヨークタイムズに

our governments are forcing the public to subsidize fossil fuels by 400 to 500 billion dollars per year worldwide, thus encouraging extraction of every fossil fuel --

知らせると

mountaintop removal, longwall mining, fracking, tar sands, tar shale, deep ocean Arctic drilling.

NASA はこの検閲を終了する状況に追い込まれました

This path, if continued, guarantees that we will pass tipping points leading to ice sheet disintegration that will accelerate out of control of future generations.

しかし それ以外の影響もありました

A large fraction of species will be committed to extinction.

私はNASA のミッションステートメントの

And increasing intensity of droughts and floods will severely impact breadbaskets of the world, causing massive famines and economic decline.

最初の１文を発表に入れるようにしてました

Imagine a giant asteroid on a direct collision course with Earth. That is the equivalent of what we face now.

「私たちの母なる惑星を理解し守るため」という１文で

Yet, we dither, taking no action to divert the asteroid,

私の講演に正当性を加えてました

even though the longer we wait, the more difficult and expensive it becomes.

すぐに このミッションステートメントは

If we had started in 2005, it would have required emission reductions of three percent per year to restore planetary energy balance and stabilize climate this century.

削除されて 二度と使われることはありませんでした

If we start next year, it is six percent per year.

その後数年で

If we wait 10 years, it is 15 percent per year -- extremely difficult and expensive, perhaps impossible. But we aren't even starting.

私はますます エネルギー政策を

So now you know what I know that is moving me to sound this alarm. Clearly, I haven't gotten this message across.

変更する緊急性を伝えることに

The science is clear. I need your help to communicate the gravity and the urgency of this situation and its solutions more effectively.

引きこまれるようになりました

We owe it to our children and grandchildren. Thank you.

同時に気候変動の物理的側面を研究していました