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  • I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life.


  • That was a great day for my mother.


  • My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine,


  • and the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine.


  • And Grandma was even more excited.


  • Throughout her life she had been heating water with firewood,

    祖母は水を薪で沸かし 、

  • and she had hand washed laundry for seven children.


  • And now she was going to watch electricity do that work.


  • My mother carefully opened the door, and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this.


  • And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no. Let me, let me push the button."

    そして母がフタを閉めると祖母は「待っておくれスイッチは 私に押させておくれ」と言いました。

  • And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic! I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it,"

    そして祖母はスイッチを入れ「こりゃすごいねぇ どうなるのか見なくちゃ 椅子をとっておくれ 見物したいんだよ」と言いました。

  • and she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program.


  • She was mesmerized.


  • To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.


  • Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, people are using so many different machines.


  • Look, the homes are full of machines. I can't even name them all, you know.

    家庭には機械が溢れ全部挙げられない程です 。

  • And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations.


  • And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire.


  • Sometimes they don't even have enough food, and they live below the poverty line.


  • There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day.


  • And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people -- and they live above what I call the "air line,"


  • because they spend more than 80 dollars a day on their consumption.


  • But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously there are seven billion people in the world,

    でもこれでは10億 20億 30億人だけです世界の人口は70億なので、

  • so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more who live in between the poverty and the air line.

    まだ10億 20億 30億 40億人いるはずですこの人々は「貧困ライン」と「エアライン」の間にいます。

  • They have electricity, but the question is, how many have washing machines?


  • I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line,

    市場データの詳しい調査をすると確かに洗濯機は 「エアライン」以下でも普及していると分かりました。

  • and today there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the "wash line."

    あと10億人の人々が現在世界では「物干しライン」を上回る生活をしています (笑い) 。

  • And they consume more than 40 dollars per day.


  • So two billion have access to washing machines.


  • And the remaining five billion, how do they wash?


  • Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash?


  • Because it remains a hard work for women to wash.


  • They wash like this: by hand.


  • It's a hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week.


  • And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home, or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off.


  • And they want the washing machine.


  • They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity.


  • And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma.


  • Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firewood and washing like that.


  • They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.


  • But when I lecture to environmentally-concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines."


  • How can we tell this woman that she ain't going to have a washing machine?


  • And then I ask my students, I've asked them -- over the last two years I've asked, "How many of you doesn't use a car?"

    この2年間 私は生徒達に質問してきました 。「車を使わない人は?」と言うと、

  • And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car."


  • And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bed sheets?"

    そのあと肝心な質問をします。「自分のジーンズやシーツを 手洗いしている人は?」

  • And no one raised their hand.


  • Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.

    厳格な環境保護運動者たちでも洗濯機を使っているのです (笑い) 。

  • So how come something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this?


  • I had to do an analysis about the energy used in the world. Here we are.


  • Look here, you see the seven billion people up there: the air people, the wash people,

    これを見ると70億人いると分かります。「エア層」や「物干し層」の人 、

  • the bulb people and the fire people.


  • One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas.

    これ1つが化石燃料のエネルギー単位だとします 石油や石炭やガスです。

  • That's what most of electricity and the energy in the world is.


  • And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them.


  • Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world's population.


  • And these ones who have washing machines, but not a house full of other machines, they use two.


  • This group uses three, one each.

    このグループは1個ずつ 合計3個分です。

  • And they also have electricity. And over there they don't even use one each.


  • That makes 12 of them.


  • But the main concern for the environmentally-interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future.

    でも環境に関心のある生徒が主に心配しているのは ― もっともなのですが、将来のことです。

  • What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use.

    動向はどうなっているのか? 傾向線を特別な分析なしで2050年まで伸ばすと、エネルギー消費量を増加する要因は2つです。

  • First, population growth. Second, economic growth.


  • Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman.

    人口増加は主に最も貧困な人々の間で起こります。幼児死亡率が高く 出産率が高いからです。

  • And that you will get two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.


  • What will happen is economic growth.


  • The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them the New East -- they will jump the air line.

    新興経済で最も進んでいる「新・東洋」とも言える人々が 「エアライン」を越えます。

  • "Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.

    「あらよ!」ってなわけです。そして、 現在の「旧・西洋」と同じように消費し始めます。

  • And these people, they want the washing machine.


  • I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use.


  • And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light.


  • And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth.


  • But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units.


  • And these 22 units you know-- still the richest people use most of it.


  • So what needs to be done?


  • Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real.

    実際に気候変動の確率は高く、 そのリスクは 、

  • It's real.


  • Of course they must be more energy-efficient.


  • They must change behavior in some way.


  • They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy.


  • But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do.

    でも1人当たりのエネルギー消費量が同等になるまで、他人にああしろこうしろと 指図するべきでありません (拍手) 。

  • Here we can get more green energy all over.


  • This is what we hope may happen.


  • It's a real challenge in the future.


  • But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine.


  • She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her, you know.


  • And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world you know --

    そして そのジルマ・ルセフは世界でも有数の 民主主義国にて。

  • moving from minister of energy to president.


  • If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines.


  • They love them.


  • And what's the magic with them?


  • My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day.


  • She said, "Now Hans, we have loaded the laundry.

    「ハンス 洗濯機に洗濯物を入れたから 、

  • The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library."

    あとは洗濯機がやってくれるその間図書館に行けるのよ」と 、

  • Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine?

    これが魔法なのです洗濯物を入れて 洗濯機から何を得るのですか?

  • You get books out of the machines, children's books.


  • And mother got time to read for me.


  • She loved this. I got the "ABC's" -- this is where I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me.

    母は大喜びでした 私は「ABC」を学びました。私の教授のキャリアはここからスタートしています。 母が本を読んでくれる時間ができてからです。

  • And she also got books for herself.


  • She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language.


  • And she read so many novels, so many different novels here, you know.


  • And we really, we really loved this machine.


  • And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you industrialization.

    そして私たちに言わせればこうだったのです「産業化よ、ありがとう 。」

  • Thank you steel mill.


  • Thank you power station.


  • And thank you chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."


  • Thank you very much.


  • (Applause)


I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life.


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A2 初級 日本語 TED 洗濯 エネルギー 消費 祖母 人々


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    Max Lin に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日