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  • Hello, and welcome back to the Note.

  • And we've had another day of nervous excitement ahead of next week's emitting of the federal reserve.

  • Oil continues to hit new lows.

  • The branch price drops below forty dollars baro.

  • Today, stock markets will decide limit around the world

  • the S&P inherit states, be headed for a good day but gave up most of its gains.

  • By the ends, I think the critical form of today has been foreign exchanged, particularly emerging markets.

  • While we're looking at here, is JP Morgen's emerging market foreign exchanging

  • covers nine major foreign currencies of emerging markets and it's drop to a new low since its inception.

  • Critically it's lower than it was back to September at the point when

  • the pressure of some emerging markets' currencies seems to force the Fed to pass raising rates.

  • If we take a look, particularly, at South Africa, where they are in something close to crisis

  • over the decision to that finance minister, you can see that this is now a very dramatic new record

  • low for the rand against the dollar which could create very serious impact.

  • Perhaps more important for the Fed, however, we need to look at the currencies of America's two neighbors

  • Canada and Mexico, we don't normally think of those two countries having much in common beyond that for the US,

  • but as you can see their currencies have been treated by the markets.

  • It's almost their identical for the last two years.

  • In the case, of the pay sell one point today was on the course for its lowest close against the dollar ever

  • narrowly avoided that.

  • But it really does have a dilemma.

  • The Mexican central bank will be meeting the day after the Fed on Friday of next week.

  • Everyone assumes or has assumed that they will have to follow through the rate hike to defend their currency.

  • If we take a look at Mexican inflation now,

  • plainly Mexican inflation is normally regarded as a problem for being too high.

  • That's how you decide three percents, their inflation is dropping very significantly .

  • It's hard to see even if the Fed heights,

  • it's hard to see how Mexico can respond with the height of its own with the inflation falling like that.

  • At home, this is only one of many dilemmas we're likely to see around the world

  • if the Fed does raise rates.

  • We have an interesting time ahead of us.

Hello, and welcome back to the Note.

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新興国通貨の圧力|オーサーズノート (Emerging currency pressures | Authers' Note)

  • 32 3
    Kristi Yang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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