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  • The Crisis of Credit Visualized

  • What is the credit crisis?

  • It's a worldwide financial fiasco involving terms you've probably heard,

  • like: "sub-prime mortgages", "collateralized debt obligations",

  • "frozen credit markets" and "credit default swaps".

  • Who is affected? Everyone. How did it happen? Here's how:

  • the credit crisis brings two groups of people together: home owners and investors.

  • Home owners represent their mortgages and investors represent their money.

  • These mortgages represent houses and this money represents large institutions,

  • like pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign funds, mutual funds, etc.

  • These groups are brought together through the financial system, a bunch of banks and brokers commonly known as Wall Street.

  • Although it may not seem like it, these banks on Wall Street are closely connected to these houses on Main Street.

  • To understand how, let's start at the beginning.

  • Years ago, the investors are sitting on their pile of money,

  • looking for a good investment to turn into more money.

  • Traditionally they go to the US Federal Reserve,

  • where they buy treasury bills, believed to be the safest investment,

  • but, in the wake of the dot-com bust in September 11th,

  • Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan lowers interest rates to only 1% to keep the economy strong.

  • 1% is a very low return on investments, so the investors say: "No, Thanks".

  • On the flipside, this means banks on Wall Street can borrow from the Fed for only 1%.

  • After that, general surplus is from Japan, China and the Middle-East

  • and there's an abundance of cheap credit.

  • This makes borrowing money easy for banks and causes them to go crazy with... leverage.

  • Leverage is borrowing money to amplify the outcome of a deal.

  • Here's how it works:

  • in a normal deal someone with $10,000, buys a box for $10,000.

  • He then sells it to someone else for $11,000

  • for a $1000 profit: a good deal.

  • But, using leverage, someone with $10,000 would go borrow $990,000 more,

  • giving him $1,000,000 in hand.

  • Then he goes and buys 100 boxes with his $1,000,000

  • and sells them to someone else for $1,100,000.

  • Then he pays back his $990,000 plus $10,000 in interest.

  • And after his initial $10,000, he's left with a $90,000 profit

  • versus the other's guy $1,000.

  • Leverage turns good deals into great deals.

  • This is a major way banks make their money.

  • So Wall Street takes out a ton of credit, makes great deals and grows tremendously rich,

  • and then pays it back.

  • The investors see this and want a piece of the action and this gives Wall Street an idea:

  • they can connect the investors to the home owners

  • through mortgages.

  • Here's how it works: a family wants a house,

  • so they save for a down payment and contact the mortgage broker.

  • The mortgage broker connects the family to a lender,

  • who gives them a mortgage.

  • The broker makes a nice commission,

  • the family buys a house and becomes home owners:

  • this is great for them because housing prices have been rising practically forever.

  • Everything works out nicely.

  • One day the lender gets a call from an investment banker

  • who wants to buy the mortgage.

  • The lender sells it to him for a very nice fee.

  • The investment banker then borrows millions of dollars and buys thousands more mortgages

  • and puts them into a nice little box.

  • This means that every month he gets the payments from the home owners

  • of all the mortgages in the box.

  • Then he seeks his banker wizards on it to work their financial magic,

  • which is basically cutting it into three slices: "Safe", "Okay" and "Risky".

  • They pack the slices back up in the box and call it a "Collateralized Debt Obligation" or "CDO".

  • A CDO works like three cascading trays:

  • as money comes in, the top tray fills first then spills over into the middle

  • and whatever is left into the bottom.

  • The money comes from home owners paying off their mortgages.

  • If some owners don't pay and default on their mortgage,

  • less money comes in and the bottom tray may not get filled.

  • This makes the bottom tray riskier and the top tray safer.

  • To compensate for the higher risk, the bottom tray receives a higher rate of return,

  • while the top receives a lower but still nice return.

  • To make the top even safer, banks will ensure it for a small fee,

  • called a "Credit Default Swap".

  • The banks do all of this work, so that credit rating agencies will stamp

  • the top slice as a safe, "triple A" rated investment,

  • the highest, safest rate in the risk.

  • The "Okay" slice is "triple B", still pretty good,

  • and they don't bother to rate the "Risky" slice.

  • Because of the "triple A" rating, the investment banker can sell the "Safe" slice

  • to the investors who only want safe investments.

  • He sells the "Okay" slice to other bankers, and the "Risky" slices to hedge funds

  • and other risk takers.

  • The investment banker makes millions.

  • He then repays his loans.

  • Finally the investors have found a good investment for their money,

  • much better than the 1% treasury goals.

  • They're so pleased, they want more CDO slices,

  • so the investment banker calls up the lender, wanting more mortgages.

  • The lender calls up the broker for more home owners,

  • but the broker can't find anyone: everyone that qualifies for a mortgage already has one.

  • But they have an idea:

  • when home owners default on their mortgage,

  • the lender gets the house, and houses are always increasing in value.

  • Since they're covered, if the home owners default,

  • lenders can start adding risk to new mortgages,

  • not requiring down payments, no proof of income, no documents at all.

  • And that's exactly what they did.

  • So instead of lending to responsible home owners, called "Prime Mortgages",

  • they started to get some that were, well, less responsible...

  • These are "Sub-Prime Mortgages".

  • This is the turning point.

The Crisis of Credit Visualized

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見える化された信用の危機 その1 (The Crisis of Credit Visualized Part 1)

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    佳靜 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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