字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント Hello, welcome back to the Note. Well, after a relatively calm week by recent standards, We can at least I think say one thing which is the market is now thoroughly prepared for a rate rise from the Feds next month. And its attitude in turn means that it becomes that much easier for the Feds to go through with raising rates as it plan it wants to do. What we're looking at here is the yields on the two-year Treasury bonds. Obviously, two-year yields are extremely closely linked to the near-term future for interest rates. And you can see that it hits a new five-year high today. Plainly, people are prepared for an interest rate rise very soon in a way that haven't been throughout the great loan era of QE that is followed the crisis. Now if you take a look at other markets, the US stock market is hovering very close to its heights as it appears back in positive territory of the year. If you take a look at foreign exchange of emerging markets, it's a critical reason why the Feds stayed its hands early this year. Those are at least stable and above their lows from earlier this year. That doesn't seem to be any great weight pushing in the market towards the Fed from rising rate as it wants to do. Now that's positive because there're other reasons for great concern about the US stock market. It is very narrow. If we take a look at this next chart, which compares the Russell Top 50, in that it says that's the 50 biggest companies in the US by market cap. Compared to the Russell 2000 in next smaller companies, you can see that's during most of the big rally following the crisis, smaller companies emphatically outperformed what you would expect. That is firmly in reverse now. The Mega-Caps are outperforming, that is generally a sign either that's a bull market that's coming to an end, or indeed that the bear market is effectively already on the way. The advance is very narrow at this point, it's limited to a few very big companies. Indeed, all of the advance in the S&P for this year can be counted for simply by Amazon and the Alphabet stocks that underpinned google. Just take away Amazon and Google, and the rest of S&P is utterly flat for the year. So, as we enter a week when the American will be giving thanks, I think the bottom line is that we can be thankful that we do appear, at last, ready to bring an end to the era of lower rates. But we also need to be a little fearful that the stock market appears ready to roll over into a bear market.