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>> HELLO AND WELCOME TO TALKING POINTS.
I'M DAVE KELLY, DIRECTOR OF ADVANCED MEDIA PRODUCTION
AT CAL STATE LONG BEACH.
TODAY WE'RE GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT RECENT ECONOMIC TRENDS
AND HOW THEY AFFECT US GLOBALLY, NATIONALLY
AND HERE IN CALIFORNIA.
MY GUEST TODAY IS DR. ROBERT KLEINHENZ.
DR. KLEINHENZ IS THE CHIEF ECONOMIST
FOR THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION.
WELCOME, ROBERT AND THANK YOU
FOR JOINING US ON TALKING POINTS.
>> THANK YOU, MY PLEASURE.
>> WELL, LET'S START WITH THE BIG PICTURE
BECAUSE EVERYONE HAS BEEN HEARING ABOUT CHINA
AND THE SLOWDOWN IN CHINA.
WE KNOW THEY HAD OVER THE SUMMER ABOUT A 30% COLLAPSE,
IF YOU WANT TO USE THAT WORD, IN THEIR STOCK MARKET.
THEY'VE ALSO RECENTLY SUGGESTED THAT THEIR GROWTH RATE IS GOING
TO BE ABOUT 6.9% FOR THIS YEAR, WHICH IS BELOW THE TARGET
OF 7%, JUST A LITTLE BIT.
BUT IT'S DEFINITELY DOWN FROM PREVIOUS YEARS.
AND I KNOW THAT THAT'S CAUSED SOME CONCERN.
WE'VE HEARD A LOT ABOUT IT IN THE ECONOMIC PRESS.
I'VE GOT A QUOTE HERE FROM THE WASHINGTON POST
FROM JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
AND THIS IS THE QUOTE FROM THE POST.
IT SAYS, "IT STARTS WITH THE SLOWDOWN IN CHINA,
WHICH IS ALREADY STRAINING THE GLOBAL RECOVERY."
"THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST ECONOMY HAS LOST ITS APPETITE
FOR THE RAW MATERIALS THAT FUELED ITS INDUSTRIAL BOOM."
"LEAVING THE SMALLER COUNTRIES THAT SUPPLIED IT WITH RESOURCES,
STUMBLING IN ITS WAKE."
"SLOWER GROWTH ABROAD,
TRANSLATES INTO WEAKER FOREIGN CURRENCIES
AND A STRONGER U.S. DOLLAR,
WHICH MAKES AMERICAN GOODS HARDER TO SELL
IN THE GLOBAL MARKETPLACE."
WHAT ABOUT THAT?
>> YEAH, SO, YOU KNOW, CHINA IS THE SECOND LARGEST ECONOMY HERE
ON THE GLOBE.
IT HAD ASTOUNDING RATES OF GROWTH FOR DECADES,
AS IT WAS GOING THROUGH THE INDUSTRIALIZATION PROCESS.
A BIG PART OF THAT INDUSTRIALIZATION PROCESS WAS AN
EXPORT ORIENTED STRATEGY.
AND IN RECENT YEARS, THE COUNTRY OF CHINA HAS GONE THROUGH
OR BEGUN TO GO THROUGH A TRANSITION
FROM THIS EXPORT ORIENTED INDUSTRIALIZATION STRATEGY,
TO ONE THAT IS MORE CONSUMER SPENDING DRIVEN.
AND THAT MEANS THEY'LL BE LESS RELIANT ON ALL SORTS OF THINGS,
INCLUDING RAW MATERIALS.
AND INDEED, THAT DOES CAUSE RIPPLE EFFECTS THROUGHOUT THE
GLOBAL ECONOMY.
MANY OTHER SMALLER ECONOMIES AROUND THE GLOBE ARE RELIANT
ON THOSE -- THE CHINESE MARKET
FOR THEIR COMMODITIES AND OTHER PRODUCTS.
SO, THERE WILL BE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO TAKE PLACE
OF OVER SEVERAL YEARS' TIME, I WOULD EXPECT.
>> PEOPLE HAVE USED THE WORD CONTAGION TO DESCRIBE THE FEAR
OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN WITH THE CHINESE ECONOMY AFFECTING THE
U.S. ECONOMY.
IS THERE ANY REAL THREAT OF CONTAGION?
>> SO, AS THIS STORY POINTED OUT, WE'RE ALL LINKED.
SO, IF THE CHINESE ECONOMY SLOWS AND THAT CAUSES A RIPPLE EFFECT
WITH ALL THESE OTHER ECONOMIES AROUND THE GLOBE,
OUR MARKETS FOR OUR PRODUCTS
THAT WE SELL ABROAD ARE GOING TO BE WEAKER.
CHINESE EXPORTS FROM THE U.S.,
ONLY MAKE UP ABOUT 1% OF OUR GDP.
AND MORE GENERALLY, THE TRADE COMPONENT
OF THE U.S. ECONOMY IS AMONG THE SMALLER COMPONENTS
OF THE U.S. ECONOMY.
SO, WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY INSULATED
FROM THE DIRECT DOWNSIDE EFFECTS.
BUT THESE REVERBERATIONS THAT YOU MENTIONED,
WE HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF.
>> AND THERE'S ANOTHER INTERNATIONAL ISSUE INVOLVING
WHAT'S REFERRED TO AS THE BRICS COUNTRIES.
BRICS IS THE ACRONYM FOR BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA,
CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA.
AND THERE'S CONCERN THAT THEY MAY BE A DEVELOPING AN
ALTERNATIVE BASKET OF CURRENCIES,
THAT'S THE PHRASE THEY USE, TO REPLACE THE U.S. DOLLAR
AS THE WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY.
FIRST OF ALL, MAYBE EXPLAIN TO OUR VIEWERS WHAT WE MEAN
BY WORLDS RESERVE CURRENCY.
AND IF THERE IS ANY REAL THREAT
THAT THE DOLLAR WILL BE REPLACED.
>> THIS SITUATION HAPPENS FROM TIME TO TIME.
SO, THE U.S. DOLLAR IS KNOWN
AS THE RESERVE CURRENCY AROUND THE GLOBE.
AND WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT MANY FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS ARE
DENOMINATED IN U.S. DOLLARS.
IT'S ALSO A CURRENCY THAT CENTRAL BANKS KEEP --
LITERALLY KEEP IN THEIR VAULTS,
AS A PART OF THEIR HARD RESERVES AGAINST DEPOSITS.
SO, FOR DECADES, THE U.S. DOLLAR HAS BEEN THE RESERVE CURRENCY.
WELL, WHY IS THAT?
IT'S BECAUSE IT IS BACKED BY A STABLE COUNTRY.
AND THE VALUE OF THAT CURRENCY ITSELF IS STABLE.
AND THOSE ARE 2 THINGS, THAT TAKEN TOGETHER,
OFTEN TIMES ARE THE DETERMINANTS OF WHETHER
OR NOT A RESERVE CURRENCY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REGARDED AS SUCH
OR IF IT WILL LOSE CREDIBILITY.
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE CREDIBILITY OF THE CURRENCY
AND WHO'S BACKING IT, WHICH IS THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE UNITED STATES.
>> AND WHAT ABOUT THIS IDEA OF A BASKET
OF ALTERNATIVE CURRENCIES?
IS THAT GOING TO HAPPEN?
ARE WE GOING TO SEE THAT HAPPENING?
>> WELL, IT COULD BE THAT SOMETHING
LIKE THAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE.
BUT DO KEEP IN MIND YOU'VE GOT TO GENERALLY LOOK
FOR SOME BACKING BEHIND A RESERVE CURRENCY.
WITH A BASKET OF CURRENCIES, I MEAN, I COULD IMAGINE
FOR EXAMPLE, THAT MAYBE THE EURO AND THE POUND AND THE DOLLAR,
COULD BECOME A BASKET BASED RESERVE CURRENCY.
I JUST DON'T KNOW THAT IT WOULD NECESSARILY TRANSPIRE.
SO, AT LEAST AT THIS TIME, I DON'T THINK THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT WE NECESSARILY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE AS BEING INEVITABLE.
>> OKAY AND IF WE TALK ABOUT THE DOLLAR BECOMING THE WORLD'S
RESERVE CURRENCY, WHICH IT CERTAINLY DID
OVER THE LAST 50, 60 YEARS OR SO.
A LOT OF THAT WAS ALSO TIED TO THE FACT
THAT OIL WAS BASED ON THE DOLLAR.
SO, WE CALL IT PETRO DOLLARS.
SO, IF THE WORLD IS STILL RUNNING PRIMARILY ON OIL,
DOESN'T THAT SECURE THE DOLLAR'S PLACE
AS THE WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY?
>> SURE. I GUESS IT'S A GOOD IDEA FOR US TO THINK
ABOUT THE BENEFITS THAT ACCRUE TO THE U.S.,
BY VIRTUE OF BEING THE COUNTRY
THAT HAS THE RESERVE CURRENCY ON THE GLOBE.
IT DOES ALLOW US TO ENGAGE IN THINGS LIKE DEFICIT SPENDING,
MORE SO THAN WE'D HAVE TO.
IT DOES ALLOW US TO RUN A TRADE DEFICIT.
AND THESE ARE 2 THINGS THAT HAVE BEEN A PART
OF THE ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE U.S. FOR DECADES.
SO, THE RESERVE CURRENCY, IN AND OF ITSELF,
THAT'S AN IMPORTANT ROLE FOR THE U.S. TO PLAY.
BUT IT ALSO GIVES US SOME BENEFITS, VIS-À-VIS THE REST
OF THE WORLD, THAT WE'VE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF, I WOULD SAY,
OVER THE LAST FEW DECADES.
>> WELL, LET'S TALK
ABOUT COMMODITY PRICES, PARTICULARLY OIL.
BECAUSE THAT'S THE COMMODITY THAT MOST PEOPLE ARE AWARE OF,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MANY OTHERS.
CERTAINLY AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND PRECIOUS METALS
AND THAT SORT OF THING.
BUT IN TERMS OF OIL, LONG BEACH HAS ALWAYS BEEN A VERY BIG OIL
TOWN AND HAS BEEN SINCE 1921 WHEN WE DISCOVERED OIL HERE.
WHEN WE LOOK AT OIL PRICES, WHEN WE GO TO THE PUMP
AND WE SEE THE PRICE GOING UP OR DOWN,
DO WE REALLY PUT TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THAT?
AND ISN'T OIL AND OIL PRICING MUCH MORE STABLE
AND LESS CAUSING OF DISRUPTION THAN WE MAYBE HEAR
ABOUT ON THE NEWS MEDIA?
>> WELL, IT'S SOMETHING THAT CERTAINLY CATCHES THE EYE
OF CONSUMERS AND BUSINESS ALIKE
AND ESPECIALLY HERE IN CALIFORNIA.
SO, A COUPLE OF THINGS ON THIS TOPIC, YOU KNOW,
YOU DON'T HAVE MUCH ELSE TO DO WHEN YOU'RE WATCHING
THAT GAS METER RUN WHEN YOU'RE PUTTING GAS IN YOUR TANK.
SO, SOME PEOPLE, I THINK, ARE PAYING ATTENTION
AND THEY'RE SEEING THAT ONE WEEK THEIR PUTTING GAS IN THE TANK
AT $3 A GALLON, NEXT WEEK IT'S $3.50.
HERE IN CALIFORNIA, ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THAT IS
THAT WE HAVE CONSTRAINT SUPPLY.
WE HAVE A LIMITED NUMBER OF REFINERIES AND A LIMITED NUMBER
OF FIRMS THAT ARE RUNNING THOSE REFINERIES.
SO, THAT ADDS A LITTLE MORE VOLATILITY TO OUR MARKET.
OF COURSE, WE HAVE SPECIAL GAS HERE.
ALL OF THESE THINGS MAKE FOR A MORE VOLATILE SET OF PRICES HERE
IN CALIFORNIA, THEN ELSEWHERE AROUND THE COUNTRY