Home to one of the largest protected areas in the world (the Phoenix Islands Protected

Area), Kiribati is the epitome of a tropical paradise. Independent since 1979, Kiribati

consists of a series of atolls and reefs with a smattering of little islands perched on

top. The temperatures are a pleasant low 80s, coconut and breadfruit trees abound, and the

waters are a lovely blue.

If you feel like booking a vacation in Kiribati, however, you had better make it snappy. Owing

to rising sea levels, two of its islands have already been lost to the waves (Tebua Tarawa

and Abanuea), and the rest are threatened. While a few of the islands are expected to

remain above water in 2115, what is left won’t be able to support the agriculture needed

to maintain a national population.

The situation is desperate enough for President Tong to begin evacuating the islands already

(a process sped up by Cyclone Pam). Official appeals have been made to Australia, New Zealand

and Fiji to accept Kiribatians as permanent refugees.

9. The Netherlands

It’s easy to imagine tropical nations disappearing into the Pacific. What is less easily imagined

is the loss of a European Nation to climate change. Never-the-less, this is not only realistic,

but in fact quite probable. Known as much for its dikes as for being the place to go

for legal drugs and prostitutes, much of the Netherlands is below sea level.

Unlike Kiribati, it is not simply rising sea levels that threatens the Netherlands. An

extremely modern nation with a powerful economy, the Netherlands can well afford to continue

expanding its dikes upwards to keep rising seas out. The real problem is that the same

dikes that can keep the sea out can keep flooding in. With half the nation at or below one meter

above sea level, the Netherlands has been constantly fighting to keep its head above

water.

In 1953, A massive storm slammed into the Netherlands and neighboring Belgium. Floods

as deep as five-and-a-half meters deep swept the southern parts of the country. Only the

careful use of a ship to plug a dike prevented the flooding of North Holland, the second

most heavily populated province. With many scientists predicting that previously “safe”

Europe could soon be struck with frequent “Hurricane Katrina” level storms, we’d

book our Amsterdam holiday today if we were you.

8. The United Kingdom

What many people often tend to forget is that Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II is not the

Queen of England, she is the queen of the United Kingdom. As early as Roman times attempts

to unite the north and south of Britain had failed (resulting in the building of a wall

between Scotland and England) and later English attempts had done little better. The death

of Queen Elizabeth (the first one) in 1603 however led to parliament handing Scottish

king James V the crown of England as well. In 1707 the now 100 year old merger of the

kingdom was formalized as “the United Kingdom of Great Britain”.

These days, however, one of the most successful empires in history is facing a real possibility

of dissolution. The union of the two kingdoms began to show cracks as early as 1853, when

advocates began calling for Home Rule. In 1934 Scottish nationalists formed the Scottish

National Party, which has, of late, been a champion of Scottish independence (and separate

membership in the European Union).

Referendums calling for the dissolution of the United Kingdom have come up in Scotland

roughly every 20 years since the 1970s. The first failed on a technicality. The second

was wildly popular, and finally established the home rule that had been debated for nearly

150 years, but did not actually dissolve the union. The most recent (2014) failed by a

narrow margin, but only six months later the SNP swept the parliamentary elections on a

wave of reaction to the narrow failure of the referendum. With 56 out of 59 seats possible

and opinion polls showing growing support for another attempt, it seems likely that

the United Kingdom will be no more by 2115.

7. Canada

Canada was the unhappy offspring of the Seven Years’ War. While Great Britain and France

were busy making a mess out of Europe from 1754-1763 their colonies in North America

were having a pleasant, and related, brawl of their own. The end result was the addition

of New France’s fishing holes to the British Empire. Unlike Scotland, where the two nations

acted like loving newlyweds for a while, French Canadians always approached things more like

an unwelcome arranged marriage.

Though becoming British in 1763 it wasn’t until 1840 that serious attempts were made

to properly un-Frenchify them. French Canada was merged with the rest of Canada, with their

main population becoming the province of Quebec. The French didn’t think much of this idea,

but went along with it, mostly out of fear of being invaded by the expansionists in the

U.S. (Reasonable, given its history with Mexico).

In the post WWII world, the U.S. stopped seeming to be the threat it had been, and the French

Canadians haven’t really felt a particular need to keep cooperating. Starting in the

‘60s a significant percentage of Quebec has been calling for sovereignty, led by the

Parti Québécois. The most recent vote on the issue failed by only 1% of the vote. With

almost a quarter of the Canadian population, most of the Atlantic ports, and total control

of the St. Lawrence waterway, the loss of Quebec could lead the rest of Canada splitting

up under pressure from regional differences and 1st Nation sovereignty movements.

6. Taiwan

Taiwan is in an interesting position. While many people are aware of the fact that China

insists Taiwan is still a part of China, what they don’t tend to recall is that Taiwan

says the exact same thing. The only real debate between the two is which government is the

legitimate one, the pre-WWII Republic of China government seated in Taiwan or the post war

People’s Republic of China in Beijing.

Regardless of the politics, the fact is that, in terms of actual operation, Taiwan is a

wholly independent nation, and has acted as such ever since Chang Kai-shek led his Kuomintang

government to Taiwan in 1949. Despite its own insistence it is not, it maintains diplomatic

nations with many of the world’s nations, it maintains its own military (purchasing

heavily from trade partner America), it has a democratically elected government that has

unchallenged rule over the island. It walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck…

Still, the fact that both Taiwan and China insist that Taiwan is just part of China goes

a long way to removing the island’s nationhood. Events over time have further eroded this

position, such as the UN’s kicking Taiwan out and giving China the empty seat in 1971.

While there are some within Taiwan calling for an official declaration of independence,

the official government stance still calls for eventual reunion with mainland China,

and only 24% of the population responded favorably to independence during a January poll. As

such it is only a matter of time before Taiwan returns to the fold.

5. North Korea

Just like China and Taiwan, North and South Korea both insist on an eventual reunion.

Unlike the first two, however, there is little doubt about how the second two will eventually

work out their reintegration. China and Taiwan are both powerful in their own right, with

strong economies, powerful technological potential, and stable governments. On the Korean Peninsula,

on the other hand, such parity does not exist.

North Korea, the result of the U.S.S.R. insisting on having control over the northern half of

Japan’s pre-WWII colony, is in the crapper. Of the 193 member states of United Nations,

North Korea’s per capita GDP comes in at 180th. The government runs entirely on the

principle of the cult of personality, with dictator Kim Jong-Un conducting near constant

purges of the top ranks to keep things under control. The only thing that North Korea can

boast of is a strong military, and the few high ranking defectors have spoken of coup

attempts by the military that have been ruthlessly kept out of the media.

Most pundits consider it to only be a matter of time before North Korea implodes under

a weight of suspicion and backstabbing. When that inevitable event occurs some time before

2115, South Korea will be ready to take North Korea back into a united country and start

repairing the damage done by the Kim Klan, as happened when East Germany was reunited

with the West in 1990.

4. Palestine

Palestine occupies a strange position on the family tree of nation-states today. While

most of the top powers of the world do not recognize it as a nation, more than two thirds

of the UN’s member states do. Palestine has a seat in the UN, though it does not have

a vote. Its government has shockingly little real power, as it often finds itself the subject

of Israel’s wrath thanks to unilateral actions on the part of radical groups inside its borders,

but it has recognized borders, a standing (if small) army, and a self-contained economy.

Unfortunately, Palestine is the weakest kid in a particularly bad neighborhood. Most of

the country is occupied by Israel as a buffer against terrorist groups. Jordan, sharing

the other significant border with it, is a stable nation, but has been struggling with

the instability in nearby Syria and Iraq. Jordan has been careful to be polite but standoffish

in order to avoid buying even more border trouble. Egypt has plenty of problems of its

own, and Turkey and Iraq are both having big trouble with ethnic separatists, so they are

the last nations to be jumping aboard any separatist support trains.

Given the combination of Israeli hostility and significant instability among the Arabic

states close at hand, Palestine’s severe governmental weakness is likely to result

in Palestine becoming a failed state. Portions that contain Israeli settlements will likely

wind up fully annexed in spite of international condemnation, while what remains could well

wind up falling under the control of a UN mandate, possibly regulated by Jordan. A Palestinian

state is highly unlikely to exist as a national entity in 2115.

3. Sudan

South Sudan is the newest nation in the world. It is also likely to be one of the shortest

lived nations in the world. It was formed in 2011 after a referendum for independence

from Sudan passed with nearly 99% of the vote. That, however, was the one and only time anyone

seemed able to agree about anything.

Externally, South Sudan can’t seem to nail down any agreement regarding its border and

trade relationship with Sudan. When it left, it took all of Sudan’s oil fields, but Sudan

retained all the infrastructure to transport the oil away from those fields. Since then

oil revenues have stagnated owing to a failure to negotiate a profit sharing deal and both

nations have had small proto-wars over how to split up their resources.

Internally, South Sudan hasn’t had any better luck. 9 of its 10 provinces are suffering

armed conflicts as various tribal and ethnic groups fight one another, and all of them

fight a government having a civil war with itself. South Sudan is, at its heart, a microcosm

of all the problems an increasingly overpopulated world faces, and is unlikely to survive them

for the next ten years, let alone long enough to see 2115.

2. Haiti

If ever there was a nation that had bad luck, it’s Haiti. Even before its war for independence,

it was a bad luck state. Consisting mostly of slaves at its start, Haiti has always suffered

from nearly every problem that’s killing the nations already listed so far. Haiti suffered

from ethnic cleansing (courtesy of neighboring Dominican Republic in the ’30s), has constantly

suffered from severe poverty and the accompanying armed revolts, and has been the object of

affection of nearly every natural disaster and disease imaginable. Then there are the

zombies.

All of these problems are now being compounded by the same climate change threatening Kiribati

and the Netherlands. Hurricanes are only growing worse as the oceans warm, and Haiti is ground

zero for any hurricane that doesn’t turn towards the East Coast of the U.S. Between

that, rising sea levels, desert generating deforestation, and earthquakes substantial

portions of Haiti are at threat of one mass destruction too many.

Seemingly doomed from the beginning, it is perfectly reasonable for Haiti itself to become

a zombie-like creature, not really alive, but not really dead. Unable to recover from

disasters economic and natural, Haiti may well eventually resort to turning itself over

to the UN or a better behaved Dominican Republic out of a desperate hope that they may be able

to keep something in that half of the island alive in 2115.

1. Sealand