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  • 7 years of buzz from the onset of the financial crisis, but the investment banks' resize and source-searching work is not quite done yet.

  • How will banks look like at the end of it? So, Michael, you have been looking exactly these subjects. Who do you think is doing better in trying to find the new model?

  • It's difficult to say at the moment. The funny thing about the situation now is that it doesn't look like any of the banks

  • can really tell what's gonna be happening over the next 3 to 5 years or what their business model might look like at the end of that period.

  • A lot of the regulation that is coming over the last 5 to 7 years is now in place, but there's still more to come, so it's very difficult for banks to say here's how we gonna look in 3 or 5 years time,

  • given that they still have a lot of enormous problems around profitability, capital raising, revenue, that sort of stuff.

  • And profitability boils splashed all over the news recently, particularly one case.

  • Yeah, not a great month for Deutsch bank. At the end of the 3rd quarters, they announced a very surprising 6 billion Euro loss.

  • Mainly due to the actual capital needs go to prop up their investment bank. The new CEO John Crane has coming after, in the summer with the clear remit to re-positioning in the bank as a whole.

  • They're obviously gonna have to take a very hard look in the investment bank if it's costing them so much money. It's very difficult for them to re-position it,

  • given that there's enormous changes that are going on at the moment. But obviously that was quite a surprise to the industry I think.

  • So you mentioned Deutsch Bank, which is obviously bank based, and you were poised on who is doing better between the European Investment Banks and the ones that's headquartered in the States. Is that different there?

  • It's a clear leave for the US at the moment. If you look at the revenue tables, The vast majority of the top 10 profit-raising investment banks are American J.P. Morgen at the top of the tree for the moment.

  • European Banks are still stuck in kind of the next existential crisis. They don't know really what they want to be, and if they know what they want to be, it's difficult for them to get there, because of the regulation, and some of the market changes in Europe.

  • The American banks got a lot of their, sort of hard work done quite earlier to the crisis. They have less of the bad asset hung over than the European banks.

  • They have a stronger economy in which to exist and to grow. And they also can thank their regulators, which is not a phrase you'll use you hear very often for banks.

  • But they all can thank the regulators just for getting a lot of work done quickly. Dodd-Frank was released in 2010, a lot of the implementation work, higher capital ratio, higher liquidity ratio, market structure, are all less been done in the US.

  • In Europe, that's still ongoing, the European banks are still sort of learning to adjust to or trying to understand what the new rules. In Europe, there are the equivalent of Dodd-Frank mean for them.

  • It's difficult task for them. A lot of the investment banks here have cut down on their trading activities because it might have capital that is needed to go towards them, it's just unsustainable.

  • They've tried to move to a kind of a cross-asset bases where they merge a lot of business lines together and let customers deal with them in one goal,

  • which is designed to cut cost, and to make investment banks more flexible, more efficient. But it doesn't mean they can hold less risk. They are offering smaller range of product, so...

  • The regulatory work and it's the economy is definitely playing in favor to US's banks, so we shall see what's going to happen in the near future we'll catch up with you soon.

7 years of buzz from the onset of the financial crisis, but the investment banks' resize and source-searching work is not quite done yet.


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月間内覧会~投資銀行の不透明な未来 (Monthly preview - An uncertain future for investment banking)

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    Ray Du に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日