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At this point, I see the US economy as performing well.
Domestics spending has been growing at a solid pace.
Our trade performance net exports is soft, but the committee judged in October that some of the downside risks had diminished,
relating to global economic and financial developments.
I see under-utilization of labor resources as having diminished significantly since earlier in the year,
although recently we've seen some slowdown in the pace of job gains, recently.
So, with that sort of backdrop in mind, and of course inflation, I should say is as you mentioned,
running considerably below our 2% objective.
Nevertheless, the committee judges that an important reason for that relate to declines in energy prices and the prices of non-energy imports,
and that as those matters stabilize, that inflation will move back up toward 2% target.
So, with that sort of economic backdrop in mind, the committee indicated in our most recent statement,
that we thought it could be appropriate to adjust rates at our next meeting.
Now, no decision at all has been made on that,
and what it will depend on is the committee's assessment of the economic outlook at that time,
and that assessment will be informed by all of the data that we receive between now and then.
So, what the committee has been expecting,
is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that's sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market,
and to return inflation to our 2% target over the medium term.
And if the incoming information supports that expectation, then our statement indicates that December would be a live possibility,
but, importantly, that we have made no decisions about it.
Now, it is as US, the best of timing of such a move.
The committee does feel, that moving in a timely fashion,
if the data and the outlook justify such a move is a prudent thing to do,
because we will be able to move for the more gradual and measured pace.
We fully expect that the economy will involve in such a way that we can move at a very gradual pace,
and of course after we do so, we will be watching very carefully, with our expectations to realize.
So, when my colleague governor Brainard mentions that inflation is low, if we were to move, say in December,
it would be based on an expectation, which I believe is justified,
that with an improving labor market and transitory factors fading, that inflation will move up to 2%.
But of course, if we were to move, we would need to verify overtime that expectation was being realized,
and if not, adjust, adjust policy appropriately.
I think, I'd also like to emphasize that I know there is a great deal of focus on the initial move,
it's been a long time that interest rates have been at zero,
but markets in the public should be thinking about the entire path of policy rates overtime.
And the committee's expectation is that, that will be a very gradual path,
and of course will depend very much on the actual performance of the economy.
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Yellen: The U.S. Economy Is Performing Well

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Ray Du 2015 年 11 月 6 日 に公開
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