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  • At this point, I see the US economy as performing well.

  • Domestics spending has been growing at a solid pace.

  • Our trade performance net exports is soft, but the committee judged in October that some of the downside risks had diminished,

  • relating to global economic and financial developments.

  • I see under-utilization of labor resources as having diminished significantly since earlier in the year,

  • although recently we've seen some slowdown in the pace of job gains, recently.

  • So, with that sort of backdrop in mind, and of course inflation, I should say is as you mentioned,

  • running considerably below our 2% objective.

  • Nevertheless, the committee judges that an important reason for that relate to declines in energy prices and the prices of non-energy imports,

  • and that as those matters stabilize, that inflation will move back up toward 2% target.

  • So, with that sort of economic backdrop in mind, the committee indicated in our most recent statement,

  • that we thought it could be appropriate to adjust rates at our next meeting.

  • Now, no decision at all has been made on that,

  • and what it will depend on is the committee's assessment of the economic outlook at that time,

  • and that assessment will be informed by all of the data that we receive between now and then.

  • So, what the committee has been expecting,

  • is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that's sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market,

  • and to return inflation to our 2% target over the medium term.

  • And if the incoming information supports that expectation, then our statement indicates that December would be a live possibility,

  • but, importantly, that we have made no decisions about it.

  • Now, it is as US, the best of timing of such a move.

  • The committee does feel, that moving in a timely fashion,

  • if the data and the outlook justify such a move is a prudent thing to do,

  • because we will be able to move for the more gradual and measured pace.

  • We fully expect that the economy will involve in such a way that we can move at a very gradual pace,

  • and of course after we do so, we will be watching very carefully, with our expectations to realize.

  • So, when my colleague governor Brainard mentions that inflation is low, if we were to move, say in December,

  • it would be based on an expectation, which I believe is justified,

  • that with an improving labor market and transitory factors fading, that inflation will move up to 2%.

  • But of course, if we were to move, we would need to verify overtime that expectation was being realized,

  • and if not, adjust, adjust policy appropriately.

  • I think, I'd also like to emphasize that I know there is a great deal of focus on the initial move,

  • it's been a long time that interest rates have been at zero,

  • but markets in the public should be thinking about the entire path of policy rates overtime.

  • And the committee's expectation is that, that will be a very gradual path,

  • and of course will depend very much on the actual performance of the economy.

At this point, I see the US economy as performing well.


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イエレン:米国経済は順調に推移している (Yellen: The U.S. Economy Is Performing Well)

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    Ray Du に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日