about the economic invisibility of nature.

見えざる経済についてお話します

The bad news

不都合にも

is that mother nature's back office isn't working yet,

大自然は人類に

so those invoices don't get issued.

請求書なんて出しません

But we need to do something about this problem.

とはいえ 放っておけない問題です

I began my life as a markets professional

私はキャリアをマーケッターとして

and continued to take an interest,

スタートし 今も関心があります

but most of my recent effort

一方で 最近は

has been looking at the value

大自然から人類が受ける

of what comes to human beings from nature,

値段がつけられることのない

and which doesn't get priced by the markets.

恩恵の価値に着目してます

A project called TEEB was started in 2007,

TEEBは2007年に発足しました

and it was launched by a group of environment ministers

G8+5の環境大臣たちによる

of the G8+5.

プロジェクトです

And their basic inspiration

スターン卿のスターン・レビューに

was a stern review of Lord Stern.

触発されて発足しました

They asked themselves a question:

彼らは こう思いました

If economics could make such a convincing case

経済要因が環境へのアクションを

for early action on climate change,

かくも素早く起こさせるなら

well why can't the same be done for conservation?

環境保護も同じようにならないか？

Why can't an equivalent case be made

自然保護に対して 同じように

for nature?

できないものか？

And the answer is: Yeah, it can.

答えは:　イエス

But it's not that straightforward.

でも そう簡単なことじゃありません

Biodiversity, the living fabric of this planet, is not a gas.

生物の多様性 地球が織りなす生態系は

It exists in many layers,

幾層にも折り重なってます

ecosystems, species and genes across many scales --

例えば 生態系 生物種 遺伝子 が

international, national, local, community --

国際的 国家的 そしてローカルな規模で

and doing for nature

スターン卿と

what Lord Stern and his team did for nature is not that easy.

彼のチームが成し遂げた事は そう簡単なことではありません

And yet, we began.

とはいえ

We began the project with an interim report,

プロジェクトはスタートし 中間報告を

which quickly pulled together

まとめました

a lot of information that had been collected on the subject

無数の情報が多くの研究員から

by many, many researchers.

寄せられました

And amongst our compiled results

調査結果の中には

was the startling revelation

驚くべき情報も含まれ

that, in fact, we were losing natural capital --

人類が大自然から受けている恩恵－

the benefits that flow from nature to us.

自然資源が異常なスピードで

We were losing it at an extraordinary rate --

失われつつあるのです－

in fact, of the order of two to four trillion dollars-worth

しかも 2～4兆ドルもの価値が

of natural capital.

失われたのです

This came out in 2008,

報告は2008年になされ

which was, of course, around the time that the banking crisis had shown

ご存じのようにリーマンショックの年で

that we had lost financial capital

金融資本のなんと

of the order of two and a half trillion dollars.

2.5兆ドルが消え去った年です

So this was comparable in size to that kind of loss.

そのくらいの損害規模があるのです

We then have gone on since

以来 調査は続き

to present for [the] international community,

報告をしています－国際社会に

for governments,

政府に

for local governments and for business

地自体 企業

and for people, for you and me,

そして 私たち一般の人々に

a whole slew of reports, which were presented at the U.N. last year,

昨年 国連で発表された大量の報告は

which address the economic invisibility of nature

大自然の見えざる経済と

and describe what can be done to solve it.

私たちができる事を示しました

What is this about?

ご説明します

A picture that you're familiar with --

お馴染みの

the Amazon rainforests.

アマゾンの熱帯雨林－

It's a massive store of carbon, it's an amazing store of biodiversity,

炭素や生物の多様性の宝庫

but what people don't really know

あまり知られていないのは

is this also is a rain factory.

雨も作り出していることです

Because the northeastern trade winds,

北東貿易風は

as they go over the Amazonas,

アマゾンを通過する際

effectively gather the water vapor.

効率的に水蒸気を吸収します

Something like 20 billion tons per day of water vapor

なんと一日に200億トンもの水蒸気を

is sucked up by the northeastern trade winds,

北東貿易風は吸収します

and eventually precipitates in the form of rain

それらは凝縮されラ・プラタ流域に

across the La Plata Basin.

雨をもたらします

This rainfall cycle, this rainfall factory,

こうした雨をもたらすサイクルは

effectively feeds an agricultural economy

2,400億ドルもの価値を

of the order of 240 billion dollars-worth

ラテンアメリカの農業に

in Latin America.

もたらします

But the question arises: Okay, so how much

さて質問です：

do Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina

ウルグアイ パラグアイ アルゼンチン

and indeed the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil

そしてブラジルといった国々は

pay for that vital input to that economy

雨をもたらすアマゾンに対して

to the state of Amazonas, which produces that rainfall?

いくら支払っているでしょうか？

And the answer is zilch,

答えは：ゼロ

exactly zero.

全くのゼロ

That's the economic invisibility of nature.

これこそが大自然の見えざる経済

That can't keep going on,

放っておけない問題です

because economic incentives and disincentives are very powerful.

経済効果はとてもインパクトがあるため

Economics has become the currency of policy.

政策決定の要因となります

And unless we address

私たちがこの見えざる

this invisibility,

経済を

we are going to get the results that we are seeing,

可視化しない限り 今も続く

which is a gradual degradation and loss

貴重な大自然の資産の

of this valuable natural asset.

損失を止めることはできません

It's not just about the Amazonas, or indeed about rainforests.

アマゾンや熱帯雨林だけの問題ではありません

No matter what level you look at,

この問題のどのレベルを見ても－

whether it's at the ecosystem level or at the species level or at the genetic level,

生態系 生物種 はたまた遺伝子レベル

we see the same problem again and again.

各階層で同じ問題が見られます

So rainfall cycle and water regulation by rainforests

生態系レベルにおける熱帯雨林による

at an ecosystem level.

降雨サイクルと水量の管理―

At the species level,

生物種のレベルでは

it's been estimated that insect-based pollination,

昆虫が果物などに行う受粉

bees pollinating fruit and so on,

こうした作業は

is something like 190 billion dollars-worth.

1,900億ドルもの価値があり

That's something like eight percent

これは地球上で 農業が

of the total agricultural output globally.

生み出す価値の8％を占めます

It completely passes below the radar screen.

こうした価値は完全に帳簿外です

But when did a bee actually ever give you an invoice?

ハチが請求書を持ってくるようなことはないでしょ？

Or for that matter, if you look at the genetic level,

ついでに言うと 遺伝子レベルでは

60 percent of medicines were prospected,

60%の医薬分子が熱帯雨林で

were found first as molecules in a rainforest or a reef.

捜し求められ見つかったのです

Once again, most of that doesn't get paid.

大自然はこれらの請求はしません

And that brings me to another aspect of this,

また 別の側面からこの問題を捉えると

which is, to whom should this get paid?

一体 誰が支払を受けるべきなのでしょう？

That genetic material

こうした遺伝子素材は

probably belonged, if it could belong to anyone,

誰かのものであるならば

to a local community of poor people

現地の貧しい人々のものでしょう

who parted with the knowledge that helped the researchers to find the molecule,

彼らが研究者たちをこうした分子に導き

which then became the medicine.

医薬品が作られるのです

They were the ones that didn't get paid.

彼らもまた支払を受けていません

And if you look at the species level,

では生物種のレベルを見てみましょう

you saw about fish.

水産資源について

Today, the depletion of ocean fisheries is so significant

今日 水産資源の減少は深刻で

that effectively it is effecting the ability of the poor,

貧しい人々 伝統を重んずる漁師達 そして

the artisanal fisher folk

漁業で生計を立て

and those who fish for their own livelihoods,

家族を養う人々に

to feed their families.

大打撃を与えています

Something like a billion people depend on fish,

およそ10億もの人々が海がもたらす

the quantity of fish in the oceans.

水産物に依存しています

A billion people depend on fish

10億もの人々が動物性蛋白質を

for their main source for animal protein.

水産物から得ています

And at this rate at which we are losing fish,

水産物の減少スピードは多くの側面で

it is a human problem of enormous dimensions,

人類がもたらした問題であり

a health problem

これまでにない

of a kind we haven't seen before.

健康被害をもたらします

And finally, at the ecosystem level,

最後に生態系のレベル

whether it's flood prevention or drought control provided by the forests,

森林がもたらす洪水対策や干ばつ対策

or whether it is the ability of poor farmers

そして貧しい農民による

to go out and gather leaf litter

飼料のための

for their cattle and goats,

落ち葉拾い

or whether it's the ability of their wives

はたまた燃料となる

to go and collect fuel wood from the forest,

マキ集めなど

it is actually the poor

貧困層が最も

who depend most on these ecosystem services.

生態系からの恩恵を受けています

We did estimates in our study

私たちの計算によると

that for countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia,

ブラジル インド インドネシアといった国々では

even though ecosystem services --

生態系の恩恵は－

these benefits that flow from nature to humanity for free --

無償で大自然より人類へもたらされ－

they're not very big in percentage terms of GDP --

GDP比では－

two, four, eight, 10, 15 percent --

2~5%と低めです－

but in these countries, if we measure how much they're worth to the poor,

しかし 貧困層にとってのインパクトの

the answers are more like

パーセンテージは大きく

45 percent, 75 percent, 90 percent.

45% 75% そして90%にもなります

That's the difference.

こんなに違いがあるのです

Because these are important benefits for the poor.

こうした恩恵は貧困層には重要です

And you can't really have a proper model for development

一方で 最も重要な

if at the same time you're destroying or allowing

発展資源である生態系の

the degradation of the very asset, the most important asset,

インフラを破壊しつつ

which is your development asset,

もう一方で 最適な発展など

that is ecological infrastructure.

望めないでしょう

How bad can things get?

どのくらい深刻なのか？

Well here a picture of something called the mean species abundance.

こちらは生物の多様性を図にしたものです

It's basically a measure

トラ カエル ダニなどなど

of how many tigers, toads, ticks or whatever on average

生物の多様性の

of biomass of various species are around.

平均値を表します

The green represents the percentage.

緑色であれば

If you start green, it's like 80 to 100 percent.

80～100%という意味で

If it's yellow, it's 40 to 60 percent.

黄色であれば40～60%

And these are percentages versus the original state, so to speak,

工業時代以前の1,750年の

the pre-industrial era, 1750.

状態を基準にした割合です

Now I'm going to show you

ご覧ください

how business as usual will affect this.

経済活動がどんなに

And just watch the change in colors

影響を与えていることか

in India, China, Europe,

インド 中国 ヨーロッパ

sub-Saharan Africa

サハラ以南のアフリカ

as we move on and consume global biomass

人類を持続できなくなるスピードで

at a rate which is actually not going to be able to sustain us.

生物の多様性は失われています

See that again.

ご覧ください

The only places that remain green -- and that's not good news --

緑色のままの地域－朗報ではなく－

is, in fact, places like the Gobi Desert,

これらはゴビ砂漠

like the tundra and like the Sahara.

ツンドラ地域 サハラ砂漠といった

But that doesn't help because there were very few species

最初から生物がほとんどいない

and volume of biomass there in the first place.

地域ばかりです

This is the challenge.

大きな問題なのです

The reason this is happening

問題の原因は

boils down, in my mind, to one basic problem,

突き詰めれば 私たちが

which is our inability to perceive the difference

公共の利益と

between public benefits

私的利益の違いが

and private profits.

認識できない点にあります

We tend to constantly ignore public wealth

私たちが公益をないがしろに

simply because it is in the common wealth,

しがちなのは それが共有のもので

it's common goods.

みんなのものだからです

And here's an example from Thailand

タイの例を見てみましょう

where we found that, because the value of a mangrove is not that much --

マングローブの価値は調査を行った９年間で―

it's about $600 over the life of nine years that this has been measured --

約600ドルと大したことありません－

compared to its value as a shrimp farm,

エビの養殖場に転換した場合

which is more like $9,600,

その価値は9,600ドルに上がります

there has been a gradual trend to deplete the mangroves

こうしてマングローブは伐採され エビの養殖場へと

and convert them to shrimp farms.

転換されつつあります

But of course, if you look at exactly what those profits are,

もちろんキチンと計算すれば

almost 8,000 of those dollars

8,000ドルは

are, in fact, subsidies.

補助金なのです

So you compare the two sides of the coin

さて 比べてみましょう

and you find that it's more like 1,200 to 600.

今や1,200ドル対600ドル

That's not that hard.

そんなに差はありませんね

But on the other hand, if you start measuring,

一方で 養殖場を再度

how much would it actually cost

生産的なマングローブに

to restore the land of the shrimp farm

戻すとなると

back to productive use?

一体いくらかかるのか？

Once salt deposition and chemical deposition

塩分や化学薬品が一度堆積され

has had its effects,

その影響後には

that answer is more like $12,000 of cost.

答えはなんと12,000ドルです

And if you see the benefits of the mangrove

マングローブがもたらす恩恵―

in terms of the storm protection and cyclone protection that you get

嵐やサイクロンといった自然災害対策

and in terms of the fisheries, the fish nurseries,

貧しい人々へ魚をもたらす

that provide fish for the poor,

養魚場としての価値

that answer is more like $11,000.

それは11,000ドル

So now look at the different lens.

別の見方をすると

If you look at the lens of public wealth

公共の利益の立場から

as against the lens of private profits,

私的利益を比べてみると

you get a completely different answer,

全く違った計算結果となります

which is clearly conservation makes more sense,

すなわち 環境保護は環境破壊よりも

and not destruction.

ずっと理に適っています

So is this just a story from South Thailand?

タイだけのお話でしょうか？

Sorry, this is a global story.

いいえ 地球規模に渡ります

And here's what the same calculation looks like,

同じようなケースを見てみましょう

which was done recently -- well I say recently, over the last 10 years --

最近の調査－ここ10年ですが－

by a group called TRUCOST.

TRUCOSTという団体により

And they calculated for the top 3,000 corporations,

トップ3,000社に対して環境コストの

what are the externalities?

調査を行いました

In other words, what are the costs of doing business as usual?

ビジネスを維持するためのコストです

This is not illegal stuff, this is basically business as usual,

違法なものでなく 通常のビジネスにおいても

which causes climate-changing emissions, which have an economic cost.

環境に悪いCO2は排出され経済的損害を導きます

It causes pollutants being issued, which have an economic cost,

汚染物質も発生し 経済的損害以外にも

health cost and so on.

健康被害なども引き起こします

Use of freshwater.

例えば 水の利用

If you drill water to make coke near a village farm,

コーラのために 村の畑近くに井戸を掘る

that's not illegal, but yes, it costs the community.

合法ですが 村は影響を受けます

Can we stop this, and how?

どうやって止めるか？

I think the first point to make is that we need to recognize natural capital.

まず 自然資源について認識を持つ必要があります

Basically the stuff of life is natural capital,

基本的に大自然は自然資源です

and we need to recognize and build that into our systems.

認識し 社会に取り込む必要があります

When we measure GDP

GDPを計算する際

as a measure of economic performance at the national level,

経済の実情を測るわけですが

we don't include our biggest asset at the country level.

国レベルでの最大の資産が入っていません

When we measure corporate performances,

企業のパフォーマンスを測る際

we don't include our impacts on nature

環境に与える影響は考慮されてません

and what our business costs society.

社会に与える負荷も

That has to stop.

改めなければなりません