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  • I'm here to talk to you

    自然の

  • about the economic invisibility of nature.

    見えざる経済についてお話します

  • The bad news

    不都合にも

  • is that mother nature's back office isn't working yet,

    大自然は人類に

  • so those invoices don't get issued.

    請求書なんて出しません

  • But we need to do something about this problem.

    とはいえ 放っておけない問題です

  • I began my life as a markets professional

    私はキャリアをマーケッターとして

  • and continued to take an interest,

    スタートし 今も関心があります

  • but most of my recent effort

    一方で 最近は

  • has been looking at the value

    大自然から人類が受ける

  • of what comes to human beings from nature,

    値段がつけられることのない

  • and which doesn't get priced by the markets.

    恩恵の価値に着目してます

  • A project called TEEB was started in 2007,

    TEEBは2007年に発足しました

  • and it was launched by a group of environment ministers

    G8+5の環境大臣たちによる

  • of the G8+5.

    プロジェクトです

  • And their basic inspiration

    スターン卿のスターン・レビューに

  • was a stern review of Lord Stern.

    触発されて発足しました

  • They asked themselves a question:

    彼らは こう思いました

  • If economics could make such a convincing case

    経済要因が環境へのアクションを

  • for early action on climate change,

    かくも素早く起こさせるなら

  • well why can't the same be done for conservation?

    環境保護も同じようにならないか?

  • Why can't an equivalent case be made

    自然保護に対して 同じように

  • for nature?

    できないものか?

  • And the answer is: Yeah, it can.

    答えは: イエス

  • But it's not that straightforward.

    でも そう簡単なことじゃありません

  • Biodiversity, the living fabric of this planet, is not a gas.

    生物の多様性 地球が織りなす生態系は

  • It exists in many layers,

    幾層にも折り重なってます

  • ecosystems, species and genes across many scales --

    例えば 生態系 生物種 遺伝子 が

  • international, national, local, community --

    国際的 国家的 そしてローカルな規模で

  • and doing for nature

    スターン卿と

  • what Lord Stern and his team did for nature is not that easy.

    彼のチームが成し遂げた事は そう簡単なことではありません

  • And yet, we began.

    とはいえ

  • We began the project with an interim report,

    プロジェクトはスタートし 中間報告を

  • which quickly pulled together

    まとめました

  • a lot of information that had been collected on the subject

    無数の情報が多くの研究員から

  • by many, many researchers.

    寄せられました

  • And amongst our compiled results

    調査結果の中には

  • was the startling revelation

    驚くべき情報も含まれ

  • that, in fact, we were losing natural capital --

    人類が大自然から受けている恩恵-

  • the benefits that flow from nature to us.

    自然資源が異常なスピードで

  • We were losing it at an extraordinary rate --

    失われつつあるのです-

  • in fact, of the order of two to four trillion dollars-worth

    しかも 2~4兆ドルもの価値が

  • of natural capital.

    失われたのです

  • This came out in 2008,

    報告は2008年になされ

  • which was, of course, around the time that the banking crisis had shown

    ご存じのようにリーマンショックの年で

  • that we had lost financial capital

    金融資本のなんと

  • of the order of two and a half trillion dollars.

    2.5兆ドルが消え去った年です

  • So this was comparable in size to that kind of loss.

    そのくらいの損害規模があるのです

  • We then have gone on since

    以来 調査は続き

  • to present for [the] international community,

    報告をしています-国際社会に

  • for governments,

    政府に

  • for local governments and for business

    地自体 企業

  • and for people, for you and me,

    そして 私たち一般の人々に

  • a whole slew of reports, which were presented at the U.N. last year,

    昨年 国連で発表された大量の報告は

  • which address the economic invisibility of nature

    大自然の見えざる経済と

  • and describe what can be done to solve it.

    私たちができる事を示しました

  • What is this about?

    ご説明します

  • A picture that you're familiar with --

    お馴染みの

  • the Amazon rainforests.

    アマゾンの熱帯雨林-

  • It's a massive store of carbon, it's an amazing store of biodiversity,

    炭素や生物の多様性の宝庫

  • but what people don't really know

    あまり知られていないのは

  • is this also is a rain factory.

    雨も作り出していることです

  • Because the northeastern trade winds,

    北東貿易風は

  • as they go over the Amazonas,

    アマゾンを通過する際

  • effectively gather the water vapor.

    効率的に水蒸気を吸収します

  • Something like 20 billion tons per day of water vapor

    なんと一日に200億トンもの水蒸気を

  • is sucked up by the northeastern trade winds,

    北東貿易風は吸収します

  • and eventually precipitates in the form of rain

    それらは凝縮されラ・プラタ流域に

  • across the La Plata Basin.

    雨をもたらします

  • This rainfall cycle, this rainfall factory,

    こうした雨をもたらすサイクルは

  • effectively feeds an agricultural economy

    2,400億ドルもの価値を

  • of the order of 240 billion dollars-worth

    ラテンアメリカの農業に

  • in Latin America.

    もたらします

  • But the question arises: Okay, so how much

    さて質問です:

  • do Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina

    ウルグアイ パラグアイ アルゼンチン

  • and indeed the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil

    そしてブラジルといった国々は

  • pay for that vital input to that economy

    雨をもたらすアマゾンに対して

  • to the state of Amazonas, which produces that rainfall?

    いくら支払っているでしょうか?

  • And the answer is zilch,

    答えは:ゼロ

  • exactly zero.

    全くのゼロ

  • That's the economic invisibility of nature.

    これこそが大自然の見えざる経済

  • That can't keep going on,

    放っておけない問題です

  • because economic incentives and disincentives are very powerful.

    経済効果はとてもインパクトがあるため

  • Economics has become the currency of policy.

    政策決定の要因となります

  • And unless we address

    私たちがこの見えざる

  • this invisibility,

    経済を

  • we are going to get the results that we are seeing,

    可視化しない限り 今も続く

  • which is a gradual degradation and loss

    貴重な大自然の資産の

  • of this valuable natural asset.

    損失を止めることはできません

  • It's not just about the Amazonas, or indeed about rainforests.

    アマゾンや熱帯雨林だけの問題ではありません

  • No matter what level you look at,

    この問題のどのレベルを見ても-

  • whether it's at the ecosystem level or at the species level or at the genetic level,

    生態系 生物種 はたまた遺伝子レベル

  • we see the same problem again and again.

    各階層で同じ問題が見られます

  • So rainfall cycle and water regulation by rainforests

    生態系レベルにおける熱帯雨林による

  • at an ecosystem level.

    降雨サイクルと水量の管理―

  • At the species level,

    生物種のレベルでは

  • it's been estimated that insect-based pollination,

    昆虫が果物などに行う受粉

  • bees pollinating fruit and so on,

    こうした作業は

  • is something like 190 billion dollars-worth.

    1,900億ドルもの価値があり

  • That's something like eight percent

    これは地球上で 農業が

  • of the total agricultural output globally.

    生み出す価値の8%を占めます

  • It completely passes below the radar screen.

    こうした価値は完全に帳簿外です

  • But when did a bee actually ever give you an invoice?

    ハチが請求書を持ってくるようなことはないでしょ?

  • Or for that matter, if you look at the genetic level,

    ついでに言うと 遺伝子レベルでは

  • 60 percent of medicines were prospected,

    60%の医薬分子が熱帯雨林で

  • were found first as molecules in a rainforest or a reef.

    捜し求められ見つかったのです

  • Once again, most of that doesn't get paid.

    大自然はこれらの請求はしません

  • And that brings me to another aspect of this,

    また 別の側面からこの問題を捉えると

  • which is, to whom should this get paid?

    一体 誰が支払を受けるべきなのでしょう?

  • That genetic material

    こうした遺伝子素材は

  • probably belonged, if it could belong to anyone,

    誰かのものであるならば

  • to a local community of poor people

    現地の貧しい人々のものでしょう

  • who parted with the knowledge that helped the researchers to find the molecule,

    彼らが研究者たちをこうした分子に導き

  • which then became the medicine.

    医薬品が作られるのです

  • They were the ones that didn't get paid.

    彼らもまた支払を受けていません

  • And if you look at the species level,

    では生物種のレベルを見てみましょう

  • you saw about fish.

    水産資源について

  • Today, the depletion of ocean fisheries is so significant

    今日 水産資源の減少は深刻で

  • that effectively it is effecting the ability of the poor,

    貧しい人々 伝統を重んずる漁師達 そして

  • the artisanal fisher folk

    漁業で生計を立て

  • and those who fish for their own livelihoods,

    家族を養う人々に

  • to feed their families.

    大打撃を与えています

  • Something like a billion people depend on fish,

    およそ10億もの人々が海がもたらす

  • the quantity of fish in the oceans.

    水産物に依存しています

  • A billion people depend on fish

    10億もの人々が動物性蛋白質を

  • for their main source for animal protein.

    水産物から得ています

  • And at this rate at which we are losing fish,

    水産物の減少スピードは多くの側面で

  • it is a human problem of enormous dimensions,

    人類がもたらした問題であり

  • a health problem

    これまでにない

  • of a kind we haven't seen before.

    健康被害をもたらします

  • And finally, at the ecosystem level,

    最後に生態系のレベル

  • whether it's flood prevention or drought control provided by the forests,

    森林がもたらす洪水対策や干ばつ対策

  • or whether it is the ability of poor farmers

    そして貧しい農民による

  • to go out and gather leaf litter

    飼料のための

  • for their cattle and goats,

    落ち葉拾い

  • or whether it's the ability of their wives

    はたまた燃料となる

  • to go and collect fuel wood from the forest,

    マキ集めなど

  • it is actually the poor

    貧困層が最も

  • who depend most on these ecosystem services.

    生態系からの恩恵を受けています

  • We did estimates in our study

    私たちの計算によると

  • that for countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia,

    ブラジル インド インドネシアといった国々では

  • even though ecosystem services --

    生態系の恩恵は-

  • these benefits that flow from nature to humanity for free --

    無償で大自然より人類へもたらされ-

  • they're not very big in percentage terms of GDP --

    GDP比では-

  • two, four, eight, 10, 15 percent --

    2~5%と低めです-

  • but in these countries, if we measure how much they're worth to the poor,

    しかし 貧困層にとってのインパクトの

  • the answers are more like

    パーセンテージは大きく

  • 45 percent, 75 percent, 90 percent.

    45% 75% そして90%にもなります

  • That's the difference.

    こんなに違いがあるのです

  • Because these are important benefits for the poor.

    こうした恩恵は貧困層には重要です

  • And you can't really have a proper model for development

    一方で 最も重要な

  • if at the same time you're destroying or allowing

    発展資源である生態系の

  • the degradation of the very asset, the most important asset,

    インフラを破壊しつつ

  • which is your development asset,

    もう一方で 最適な発展など

  • that is ecological infrastructure.

    望めないでしょう

  • How bad can things get?

    どのくらい深刻なのか?

  • Well here a picture of something called the mean species abundance.

    こちらは生物の多様性を図にしたものです

  • It's basically a measure

    トラ カエル ダニなどなど

  • of how many tigers, toads, ticks or whatever on average

    生物の多様性の

  • of biomass of various species are around.

    平均値を表します

  • The green represents the percentage.

    緑色であれば

  • If you start green, it's like 80 to 100 percent.

    80~100%という意味で

  • If it's yellow, it's 40 to 60 percent.

    黄色であれば40~60%

  • And these are percentages versus the original state, so to speak,

    工業時代以前の1,750年の

  • the pre-industrial era, 1750.

    状態を基準にした割合です

  • Now I'm going to show you

    ご覧ください

  • how business as usual will affect this.

    経済活動がどんなに

  • And just watch the change in colors

    影響を与えていることか

  • in India, China, Europe,

    インド 中国 ヨーロッパ

  • sub-Saharan Africa

    サハラ以南のアフリカ

  • as we move on and consume global biomass

    人類を持続できなくなるスピードで

  • at a rate which is actually not going to be able to sustain us.

    生物の多様性は失われています

  • See that again.

    ご覧ください

  • The only places that remain green -- and that's not good news --

    緑色のままの地域-朗報ではなく-

  • is, in fact, places like the Gobi Desert,

    これらはゴビ砂漠

  • like the tundra and like the Sahara.

    ツンドラ地域 サハラ砂漠といった

  • But that doesn't help because there were very few species

    最初から生物がほとんどいない

  • and volume of biomass there in the first place.

    地域ばかりです

  • This is the challenge.

    大きな問題なのです

  • The reason this is happening

    問題の原因は

  • boils down, in my mind, to one basic problem,

    突き詰めれば 私たちが

  • which is our inability to perceive the difference

    公共の利益と

  • between public benefits

    私的利益の違いが

  • and private profits.

    認識できない点にあります

  • We tend to constantly ignore public wealth

    私たちが公益をないがしろに

  • simply because it is in the common wealth,

    しがちなのは それが共有のもので

  • it's common goods.

    みんなのものだからです

  • And here's an example from Thailand

    タイの例を見てみましょう

  • where we found that, because the value of a mangrove is not that much --

    マングローブの価値は調査を行った9年間で―

  • it's about $600 over the life of nine years that this has been measured --

    約600ドルと大したことありません-

  • compared to its value as a shrimp farm,

    エビの養殖場に転換した場合

  • which is more like $9,600,

    その価値は9,600ドルに上がります

  • there has been a gradual trend to deplete the mangroves

    こうしてマングローブは伐採され エビの養殖場へと

  • and convert them to shrimp farms.

    転換されつつあります

  • But of course, if you look at exactly what those profits are,

    もちろんキチンと計算すれば

  • almost 8,000 of those dollars

    8,000ドルは

  • are, in fact, subsidies.

    補助金なのです

  • So you compare the two sides of the coin

    さて 比べてみましょう

  • and you find that it's more like 1,200 to 600.

    今や1,200ドル対600ドル

  • That's not that hard.

    そんなに差はありませんね

  • But on the other hand, if you start measuring,

    一方で 養殖場を再度

  • how much would it actually cost

    生産的なマングローブに

  • to restore the land of the shrimp farm

    戻すとなると

  • back to productive use?

    一体いくらかかるのか?

  • Once salt deposition and chemical deposition

    塩分や化学薬品が一度堆積され

  • has had its effects,

    その影響後には

  • that answer is more like $12,000 of cost.

    答えはなんと12,000ドルです

  • And if you see the benefits of the mangrove

    マングローブがもたらす恩恵―

  • in terms of the storm protection and cyclone protection that you get

    嵐やサイクロンといった自然災害対策

  • and in terms of the fisheries, the fish nurseries,

    貧しい人々へ魚をもたらす

  • that provide fish for the poor,

    養魚場としての価値

  • that answer is more like $11,000.

    それは11,000ドル

  • So now look at the different lens.

    別の見方をすると

  • If you look at the lens of public wealth

    公共の利益の立場から

  • as against the lens of private profits,

    私的利益を比べてみると

  • you get a completely different answer,

    全く違った計算結果となります

  • which is clearly conservation makes more sense,

    すなわち 環境保護は環境破壊よりも

  • and not destruction.

    ずっと理に適っています

  • So is this just a story from South Thailand?

    タイだけのお話でしょうか?

  • Sorry, this is a global story.

    いいえ 地球規模に渡ります

  • And here's what the same calculation looks like,

    同じようなケースを見てみましょう

  • which was done recently -- well I say recently, over the last 10 years --

    最近の調査-ここ10年ですが-

  • by a group called TRUCOST.

    TRUCOSTという団体により

  • And they calculated for the top 3,000 corporations,

    トップ3,000社に対して環境コストの

  • what are the externalities?

    調査を行いました

  • In other words, what are the costs of doing business as usual?

    ビジネスを維持するためのコストです

  • This is not illegal stuff, this is basically business as usual,

    違法なものでなく 通常のビジネスにおいても

  • which causes climate-changing emissions, which have an economic cost.

    環境に悪いCO2は排出され経済的損害を導きます

  • It causes pollutants being issued, which have an economic cost,

    汚染物質も発生し 経済的損害以外にも

  • health cost and so on.

    健康被害なども引き起こします

  • Use of freshwater.

    例えば 水の利用

  • If you drill water to make coke near a village farm,

    コーラのために 村の畑近くに井戸を掘る

  • that's not illegal, but yes, it costs the community.

    合法ですが 村は影響を受けます

  • Can we stop this, and how?

    どうやって止めるか?

  • I think the first point to make is that we need to recognize natural capital.

    まず 自然資源について認識を持つ必要があります

  • Basically the stuff of life is natural capital,

    基本的に大自然は自然資源です

  • and we need to recognize and build that into our systems.

    認識し 社会に取り込む必要があります

  • When we measure GDP

    GDPを計算する際

  • as a measure of economic performance at the national level,

    経済の実情を測るわけですが

  • we don't include our biggest asset at the country level.

    国レベルでの最大の資産が入っていません

  • When we measure corporate performances,

    企業のパフォーマンスを測る際

  • we don't include our impacts on nature

    環境に与える影響は考慮されてません

  • and what our business costs society.

    社会に与える負荷も

  • That has to stop.

    改めなければなりません

  • In fact, this was what really inspired my interest in this phase.

    これこそ この問題に取り組もうとしたきっかけで

  • I began a project way back called the Green Accounting Project.

    最初の取り組みはGreen Accounting Projectでした

  • That was in the early 2000s

    2000年代初頭

  • when India was going gung-ho about GDP growth

    インドがGDPの成長に躍起になって-

  • as the means forward --

    ちょうど中国の

  • looking at China with its stellar growths of eight, nine, 10 percent

    8~10%の目覚ましい成長を見て