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  • The reflexivity between markets and central banks is starting to resemble the ancient Greek symbol of a serpent swallowing its own tail for eternity.

  • Markets focused on the timing of a possible interest rate rise in the U.S., the committee responsible for setting U.S. rates is focused on volatility in markets.

  • The postponement of a shift in U.S. federal reserve policy in September and the decision to leave rates where they are

  • explains why money is now drifting back into riskier assets.

  • Economists may still think there's a good chance of rates rising before the end of the year, but investors put the odds at less than 33%.

  • The consequence is a rebound in emerging markets, which are turning out to be one of the best performing assets of October.

  • So far this month, the MSCI index of EM equities is up 9.25%

  • while emerging market equity funds tracked by EPFR Global recorded their first positive inflows last week since June.

  • And the risk premium demanded by investors for holding emerging market bonds instead of safer U.S. debt has dropped.

  • But the rebound does not reflect a sudden improvement in the countries themselves.

  • Official data released by China on Monday showed better than expected growth of 6.9% between July and September.

  • But that marks a slowdown compared to last year and it was enough to drag down commodity prices on Monday.

  • Instead, it is the expectation that the U.S. will hold off raising rates

  • and that other central banks will be pressurized into following suit or expanding stimulus programs that is heading up this rally.

  • This week, the European central bank will meet to discuss whether fresh stimulus is needed to ward off the threat of deflation in the Eurozone.

  • With the latest figure showing sub-zero inflation in the Eurozone area in September,

  • the Euro is reversing its recent rise against the Dollar on the basis that more stimulus will put down more pressure on the Eurozone's currency.

  • Our prices for Eurozone bonds are up sending yields lower. The market seems to think that an extension to Europe's QE program is all but assured.

The reflexivity between markets and central banks is starting to resemble the ancient Greek symbol of a serpent swallowing its own tail for eternity.

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FRBの不作為がユーロ圏に与える影響|ショートビュー (Effects on eurozone of Fed’s inaction | Short View)

  • 31 4
    Ray Du に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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