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>> TIM REBER: Hello everyone. My name is Tim Reber with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
and I'd like to welcome you to today's webinar, which is hosted by the Clean Energy Solutions
Center in partnership with the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, or REN21.
Today's webinar is focused on the Renewables 2015 Global Status Report and its findings
that they relate to distributed renewable energy. One important note is mentioned before
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Today's webinar agenda is centered around the presentations from our two guest panelists,
Rana Adib and Fabiani Appavou. These panelists have been kind enough to join us to provide
an overview of REN21's newly released Renewables 2015 Global Status Report and a look at the
status of distributed energy. Before our speakers begin their presentations, I will provide
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And now I'd like to go ahead and provide brief introductions for today's panelists. First
up today is Rana Adib. Rana is the research coordinator at REN21 and has assisted with
the annual production of the REN21 Renewables Global Status Report. Today, Rana will provide
an overview of the key findings from the status report. Following Rana, we'll hear from Fabiani
Appavou. Fabiani is a consultant at REN21 working on the development of a distributed
renewable energy data collection, namely in developing countries. He also supports the
work and research of REN21 in developing renewable energy and energy efficiency regional status
report for Africa.
Fabiani will be providing an overview of Renewables Global Status Reports' finding as they specifically
relate to distributed energy. And now with those introductions, I'd like to go ahead
and welcome our first speaker, Rana, to the webinar. Rana, whenever you're ready.
>> RANA ADIB: Hello everybody. I hope that you can see my screen and also hear my voice.
I'm very happy to have the opportunity to present the Renewables Global Status Report
with a particular focus on distributed renewable energy for energy access in developing countries
just because that's really a field which is rising a lot, but is also causing specific
challenges in the work we are conducting. So very quickly on REN21, REN21 is a multi-stakeholder
network dedicated to the rapid uptake of renewable energy worldwide. It's a network where we're,
different stakeholder groups are working together. It's NGOs and all society industry associations,
national governments, international organization, and science and academia.
I underlined the fact that it's multi-stakeholder network and also this network character because
all our activities are really done in a very collaborative approach. REN21 produces every
year the Renewables Global Status Report. The report, the 2015 edition was launched
in June at the Vienna Energy Firm and was the tenth edition. Again here, the way the
report is produced is really reflecting very much the structure of REN21 because it's a
joint effort of approximately 500 contributors, researchers, reviewers worldwide. We have
different features here focusing on a general overview about renewable energy and power
heating and cooling and transferred.
Then there is a section on market and industry trends on the specific renewable energy technologies,
on investment flow. This is a work undertaking in collaboration with UNEP Frankfurt School
and Bloomberg Energy Finance. So we are basically presenting a summary here. Obviously, a section
on policy landscape, and we have a specific faction on distributed renewable energy for
our energy access. Just because we think it's an area which is not that well known, there
is more and more information on energy access, but not the specific role of renewable energy
for in this field. And so that's the reason why we have a specific section for that. The
GSR 2015 for the first time featured a section on energy efficiency just to really underline
the need to think renewable energy and energy efficiency jointly. There is no way to reach
basically a sustainable energy for all goals on renewable energy shares without including
the demand side.
Every year, there is a changing feature. This year, it was on using renewables for climate
change adaptation in view of the COP in Paris. Next year, there will be a feature on community
energy. The report covers all renewable energy technologies, power heating and cooling and
transfer sector, and energy efficiency. We don't do any forecasts. There is no real analysis.
It's really about the status of renewable energy. Now let me take you through some,
before taking you through some numbers, I would also like to mention the fact that we
are, since a couple of years producing original renewable energy and energy efficiency status
reports because the field is getting so large that we really see that there is a need for
regional efforts on data collection on having regional strategies.
Last year, we launched November report on the ECOWAS region, and there is a couple of
upcoming reports, one on [inaudible] South African Development Community, one on UNECE,
and in early probably first quarter of 2016 on the East African Community. The data collected
in this GSR effort and in the regional reports are also presented on a web portal, which
allows for, facilitates basically the access to the information at the country level. Now
let me take you through some numbers. Generally, what we can say if we look at the decade of
renewables, the last decade on renewable evolution, renewables really surpassed all expectations.
There is a global and sole capacity production from all renewable technologies have increased
substantially, and basically, they have, yeah, the expectations have been surpassed and nobody,
yeah. Nobody really expected such a rise. This is very much linked to significant cost
reductions for most technologies. What we also see, however, that policy frameworks
play a very important and crucial role throughout the world. If we have a look at the renewable
energy in the world, what we can say is in 2013, and this is not a data of 2014 because
such care data is really not available in such a timely manner.
The share of renewables presented 19.1% of global final energy consumption. The share
of modern renewable energy increased up to 10.1%. What is important here is to keep in
mind that one of the objectives under SE4All is to also move basically the share from traditional
biomass towards modern bio-energy use, which really means an improvement of the energy
service in many developing countries in rural areas. We need to see these figures, again,
basically the rising energy demand. Global fine energy consumption has increased by about
1.5% annually in recent years, and this is primarily driven by developing countries,
which also mean that there is really a need to look more on the renewable energy play
in these countries.
The good news of this year that despite the rising energy use for the first time for decades,
the global carbon emissions associated with energy consumption, this is really a result
of renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency measures. Let's look at the champions.
In terms of investment in renewable power and fuels, and this is not including hydropower
larger than 50 megawatts. China, the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were the leader.
What is very interesting here is if you look at the investment relative to annual GDP,
we will have a completely different type of countries appearing. It's [inaudible], Kenya,
Honduras, Jordan, and Uruguay. And this is really important to keep in mind because it
shows that these countries really can be force runners in renewable energy deployment. In
terms of total capacity, what is interesting again is that, I mean you have, again, the
big countries, China, the US, Brazil, Germany, and Canada in this case, including hydropower.
However, when we have this relative to per capita data, we will see a list of Denmark,
Germany, Sweden, Spain, and Portugal, which are all European countries, and this can definitely
be explained by the fact that these countries have since a long time a very stable policy
framework providing good opportunities to develop renewables.
Now what we clearly see so I mentioned we're looking into the role of renewables in the
different sectors, in the power sector, renewables or, renewable energy development is really
the most dynamic in the power sector. Here renewables account for 27.7% of the global
power generation capacity and 22.8% of global electricity demand. What is very interesting
here is to see that this year, and it's for the first time, renewables made up to 59%
of the net additions to global power capacity and surpassed, basically, the additions in
the, the net additions in the coal, in the fossil fuel market, so that's really very
interesting news.
What is also interesting to keep in mind is when we are thinking about, and this is less
linked to distributed renewables, but still something important to keep in mind. When
we're thinking about the integration of a rival renewables, which is often mentioned
still as a major challenge on renewable energy during deployment. We see that when power,
for example, met approximately 40% of electricity demand in Denmark, 27% in Portugal, 21% in
Nicaragua. Solar PV capacity end of 2014 was enough to meet eight% of electricity demand
in Italy, 7.6 in Greece and 7 in Germany.
So there is, it is possible to have renewable energy at large [inaudible] here is also grid
connected ones. When we are looking now at the heating and cooling market, energy used
for heat accounted for about half of total world final energy consumption in 2014, which
shows that it's extremely important to really focus also on the heating and cooling sector.
Approximately eight% of the global heat demand was covered by renewable energy, by modern
renewable energy.
It's much more complicated to have real assessment and quantitative data on the share of traditional
biomass to this demand just because of the very decentralized and non-traded aspect of
the sector. The trends are clearly that there is a growing interest, although advanced systems
represent still a small fraction of the global market. There is loss potential, but there
is really compared to the power market rather a slow growth in this field. This is really
something which is to underline because it means that policy makers need to give it more
attention because having developed renewable energy, heating and cooling is really key
for the energy transition.
In the transport sector, we have a similar situation as in the heating sector. Renewables
accounted for an estimated 3.5% of global energy demand for road transfer in 2013 up
from two% in 2007. The primary focus today still lies on liquid biofuels, whether we're
looking to markets in these trained policies. However, what we see trend wise is really
the development of gaseous fuels and electricity which are not always directly linked to renewables,
but allow to really create pathways to integrate renewables into transportation.
I will not go into detail in all different renewable energy technology, but really focus
on the ones which are also relevant for distributed renewables. So when we are looking into wind
power, there is a total global capacity of 51 gigawatts, which was, no, sorry, of 370
gigawatts, and 51 gigawatt have been added in 2014. Compared to 2014, there is a 44%
increase, or in 2014, there was a 44% increase over 2013 markets. This is really a very,
very dynamic market, which is growing recently. Interestingly by the end of 2014, there were
at least 85 countries that had seen commercial wind activities. Seventy-four of them with
an install capacity of larger than ten megawatt, and 24 of them even larger than one gigawatt.
So wind is really a mainstream technology in the energy landscape. When it comes to,
77 gigawatt. What is very interesting that more than 60% of all PV capacities in operations
worldwide were added over the past three years, and this is mainly due to significant and
unexpected cost reductions, which really, I mean costs some challenges in terms of policy
framework, so there were countries with really reduced their policy support for PV. However,
the, it also creates many opportunities because PV is now a technology which is cost efficient,
also, and applicable for distributed renewable energy activities in developing countries,
and find in ways to other applications.
When we look at the regional developments, we clearly see that Asia eclipse of all markets
and account for approximately 60% of global additions. Obviously with China, very active,
and in China, we also see that there is a strong increase in large scale power plants.
Bio-energy. So by the total primary energy demand from bio-mass was approximately of
16,000 to 150 terawatt hours. Bio-mass was used to produce an estimated 12,500 terawatt
hours of heat, and the bio-power capacity increased by an estimated five gigawatt in
2014, reaching a total of 93 gigawatt. What we see is that the split up is a larger is
linked to solid bio-mass, part of it them to municipal solid waste, bio-gas, and a little
part for bio-fuels, which are rather used in the transfer sector.
Here we clearly have a major challenge, which is have good, timely, continuous reliable
data. Again, bioenergy is really very decentralized in its use and its application. There are
multiple pathways from different sources to different energy uses. The energy carriers
are very often not traded, so it's a major challenge to have good data, and especially
with regard to the use of renewables, also for distributed renewables. There is a need
that the international community and all players really work together to improve the data citation
here. I took the example of solar panel heating and cooling just because it's really also
important to look into the heating and cooling market, and we see that for some technologies
which are decentralized, it's however possible to have better data and good data. So solar
panel heating and cooling reach a cumulative capacity of 374, sorry, here is an error.
I'm sorry for that.
Let me check this. I will need to check this because I'm not sure about the cumulative
capacity if the installed capacities, yes, oh, sorry. There is no error. The installed
capacity was 374.7 gigawatt thermal, and we had an increase in 2014 of 44 gigawatt thermal.
China account for nearly 81% of global market, so there is again a real focus on Asia. Technology
wise, there's a focus more and more on glaze water collectors. There was also slowdown
in market growth in 2014 which continued here, and this is really very much linked to the
distributed nature of that market on the one side, but also the reduced costs in power
technologies, renewable power technologies which basically make end users and project
developers choose, for instance, PV wind geothermal with heat pumps as an alternative to solar
panel.
So what we clearly need to keep in mind is that renewable energy offers not only, yeah,
offers many possibilities, also economic opportunities to create jobs and renewables so that global
employment continue to increase with originally estimated 7.7 million direct or indirect jobs
in renewable energy industry. The global wind power employment cross the one million jobs
threshold in 2014. Here again when it comes to jobs in distributed renewables in developing
countries, this is something where arena really puts a lot of effort in improving the data
situation, but it's again very decentralized and it really means that we need to all work
together to improve the data situation.
The global investment and renewable energy in 2014 is estimated to 270.2 billion USD.
This is including, if we include the hydropower, large hydropower, it reached the 301 billion
USD. The reasons for increase is really the increased solar power installations in China
and Japan, the investment in solar wind up 25%, and interest, also to manage it is really
the record investment in offshore wind projects in Europe.
So solar power and wind were the leading technologies by far in terms of dollar committed, with
solar power accounting for 55% in new investment, wind 36.8%, and what is also important to mention that in
2014, more than a quarter of new investment in renewable energy went to small scale projects,
particularly to solar PV. So this is really an indication that dairy markets, such as
distributed renewable energy markets, are gaining. When we are looking at the investment
and the regional split up, we see real different. So variations here. In Europe, because of
the reduced or decreasing positive policy frameworks in some countries, investment decreased,
and what we clearly see is that the Asian countries are rising significantly.
When we are comparing developed countries towards developing countries, there is, I
mean 138.9 billion investment in developed countries versus 131.3 billion in developing
countries. However, if we see the increase in developed countries, it was a 3%, but of
36% in developing countries. All that is possible. So what we clearly see is policy frameworks,
regulatory frameworks are key to retrainable energy deployment, so when we're looking at
the map, there is clearly a positive trend because there is more and more countries,
these other ones in red which have policies and targets. The dark orange are the ones
with only policies, no targets, or no data. The light ones are with targets and no policies,
and then we have some gray ones for which either there's no policy or target or no data
available.
The trend we can really see is that there is more and more countries are choosing more
complex I'd say policy design, so there is the targets. Targets are really used as, yeah,
dynamic tool I'd say to push policy frameworks. But they are, to date, they are really linked
to policy measures. One thing to mention here is that counting the policies is obviously
not enough to really assess the effectiveness and efficiency of policies. So there are 164
countries with renewable energy targets, 145 with renewable energy policies in place, and
when we're looking here at the different types of policies, what we clearly see again is
that it's again the power market which is presented here in the bluish colors which
attract the policy makers' interest more. So it's a main focus.
With the feed-in tariffs being the most popular type of policies, then we also see an increase
of net metering and net building policies. Now we, as I mentioned before, we have a specific
section on distributed renewable energy in developing countries. What we see is that
renewable energy clearly play an important role in the energy access improvements, and
in 2014, the situation was still that 15% of the global population still lack any access
to an electricity grid. 2.9 billion people lack access to cleaner forms of cooking. There
is an increasing awareness of it that distributed renewable energy systems really offer a great
opportunity to accelerate the transition to modern energy service.
This is certainly due to the increased cost competitiveness, but also to the fact that
renewable energy projects can be pulled up much, much quicker than fossil fuel projects,
that there is a certain, that there is a flexibility, that there are, that it offers solution for
local sub-national strategies. We see here that very clearly there is big differences,
big regional differences when it comes to the electricity access situation and the access
to clean cooking. What we also see is that these topics are predominantly rural challenges
still, rural peri-urban challenges, but rather rural with 87% and 83% also population of
the population, yeah, sorry, but I guess you got to this.
A challenging situation here is that there is really little quantitative information
on distributed renewable energy markets. There is a lot of qualitative information. There
is a lot of case studies, success stories, more and more information on energy access,
but it really comes to the specific role of install capacity, energy output based on renewable
energy. It's quite challenging. The information which is available however really shows, indicates
that the markets are significant. For instance, there is information floating around that
say 64 billion USD of investments have been took place, basically, on off grid solar PV.
What we also see from the information we could collect is that there are huge regional differences.
For instance, if we look at Sub-Saharan African, excluding South Africa, there is an installed
renewable energy power capacity of 23 gigawatt, and this is less than one-third of the renewable
energy power capacity installed in India. On the other hand, we have huge success stories
like in Bangladesh where three million solar home systems are operational, and of May 2014,
and they are electrifying 9% of the country's population. So it also show that when there
are large scale programs with good frameworks it is really possible to make it a real significant
market which is great for energy access, but also great for renewable energy, investment,
and industry.
Otherwise, we see the trend that there is an increasing involvement of private sector,
increased recognition of the rule of renewable energy that this place for energy access.
Especially also because of the cost competitiveness, and that as a result, there is uptake in off-grid
renewable energy programs, and partly even the creation of specific distributed renewable
energy institutions in some countries. In the last years, we started just because of
on our side, we really had a certain frustration on the lack of quantitative data because this
quantitative data is really important to attract investors, renewable energy investors to these
markets.
So we started really to collaborate with different organizations and start collecting data to
at least have some indications on what's ongoing in the countries, how much systems have been
installed, how much it might represent in terms of installed capacities and renewable
energy capacities. This is an effort we really want to strengthen over the next coming years,
and Fabiani will talk more about this. So looking at the renewable energy development,
the overall conclusion is that the renewable energy can continue to grow in 2014 against
the backdrop of increasing global energy consumption and a dramatic decline of our prices in the
second half of 2014.
The very positive message is really that CO2 growth has decoupled. Economic and CO2 growth
has decoupled, which is a record for renewables in energy efficiency. What is still important
is clearly to have long-term and stable policy framework, which can adapt to changing environment,
and this is specifically linked also to the cost reduction. So there is really a need
that these policy frameworks can adapt to these technology developments, market industry
developments.
However, it is extremely important to create and maintain a stability, because otherwise
you're risking to have full sectors industries going down. There is a need for greater attention
for heating and cooling in the transferred sector, and there is clearly a need to improve
the information on distributed renewable energy markets in developing countries. I would just
like to have a very quick outlook on what we specifically plan on distributed renewables
in the next upcoming global status report, so the objective clearly is to portray the
distributed renewable energy market using qualitative and quantitative data, and to
also highlight the importance and growing role of this renewable energy market segment.
The [inaudible] are in October 2015, we will start the collection of country and regional
information. We will also start the collection of quantitative data for 2014 more at the
program project industries level. In January, there will be an expert review of the distributed
renewable energy section, and in February, we will ask for an update of quantitative
data for 2015. I think I did, forgot to mention this in the beginning. We really aim to have
continuous and very timely data, so in 2016 in the upcoming GSR 2016, we will report on
2015 developments. This is really a call to participate. Don't
hesitate to contact us. I'm pretty sure you have information and pieces of the puzzle
which will allow us to really portray the overall picture. Thank you very much, and
I'm available for questions at the end of the Q&A session.
>> TIM REBER: Great, thank you so much, Rana. I really appreciate that great overview. We
do certainly ask that everybody in attendance feel free to ask questions for Rana. We're
collecting those and will be saving them to the end. So in the meantime, we'll be moving
right on to Fabiani. So Fabiani, whenever you're ready, go ahead.
>> FABIANI APPAVOU: Thank you. So since I [inaudible] good morning or good afternoon
to everyone who is joining us for this webinar, so I think at my place right now, I think
it's more kind of good night. So building on what Rana has been presenting, I'm going
to kind of stress on a distributor being an image port for energy access, and as my presentation
kind of title says, it's about tracking shadows in the sense that we are kind of tracking
pieces of a puzzle. We kind of know that there's a big potential for it, but the figure is
kind of shows that kind of data have been developing shows that yeah, it is playing
a big part into the whole [inaudible] for all paradigm, but still we're struggling and
we are facing kind of lots of challenges in how to get through this data, how to kind
of like compile this data, and how to report this data in such a way that it portrays at
the end of the day the right information.
So my first slide is about a bit of an idea of energy access situation. I think Rana had
talk about it earlier about whether proper tracking firm would have been saying in 2012
we had 1.1 billion people still lacking electricity, and 2.9 billion people still lacking access
to clean and [inaudible] cooking fuel. And building on ways what we have seen is in the
past two years for 2010 to 2012, it has been some kind of improvement in providing energy
access to people around the world. Things are moving on for sure, but according to experts
in the field, things are not moving fast enough so that we can reach the target of energy
access for all. Universal energy access for all. According
to the [inaudible], what we have seen is like okay, so we have a big challenge to meet,
but how do we meet that challenge? And according to a study about the IEA, at 2030, it said
that like 70% of the people currently lacking energy access would be served for decentralized
system. The reason for this can be numerous, but I think everyone would agree that one
of the two reasons is because implication of it. One of the main reasons why people
are lacking energy access would be the cost implication of governments investing into
expanding their grid.
At times, [inaudible] need to be expanded in [inaudible] outer wage. Always think by
example of the Philippines, which are composed of different regions and different islands,
and it's quite difficult at times to have - [inaudible] tricks into EIS, which are mountainous,
out of reach, or to the extent of which to an island where only like 120 people. So it's
not like economically feasible to do so. So one of a key element to providing energy access
to them is for decentralized energy. Second point is for, five kind of points is that
for universal access, 55% of all new power until 2030, we've come from decentralized
energy sources. And the part that I like, we [inaudible], and that is philosophized.
But 90% of it will be from renewables. Just portray the whole picture of where we're going.
Decentralized energy from renewables. And of all the investment that will be needed
by 2030 to achieve universal access, 64% will be enough grid and mini-grid. Technologies.
I want to really work on best picture because I think it kind of just tells the story on
what needs to be done, what needs to be achieved, and where we need to invest. One thing that
I quite like about this figure is particularly of a bar chart where the green part shows
isolated upgrade and the kind of pink part shows the mini-grid.
And we say that around the world, we have exception of [inaudible] in America perhaps,
but in Sub-Saharan Africa where it is in India, or in a part of Asia Pacific, we see that
like isolated off grid and mini grids which many composed a part of distributed renewable
energy in terms of [inaudible] wherever they need to be invested so as to provide energy
access to people around the world. At the same time, just keeping in mind this part
that we are moving forward, a lot of progress is being made.
But at the same time, to reach that goal of universal energy access by 2035. Sorry. So
we need to move a bit faster, a bit more in that particular field. I would say if the
IEA kind of like submits that we need 700 billion, some kind of study that shows that
we may need less, like ten times less, and we can achieve in a universal energy access
in less time, like ten years earlier by really going for distributed energy, you know, just
[inaudible] technologies. I think those studies, maybe you can question the figures and portion
from a [inaudible], but at the end of the day, it just shows the wishful thinking for
sure, but it shows the end of the [inaudible] people trying to make things happen. And as
one of it was saying earlier, if you look back in time, ten years back, who would say
that like renewable energy itself would be playing such a big role nowadays.
Ten years back, people were saying it's kind of expensive, it's kind of not feasible yet,
need to wait and see. But now it's just booming. And if you look at a situation about DRE,
it's kind of the same thing. Not so much interest like three or four years ago. It was just
only being done by charities in two countries or to invest like provide energy access to
schools or hospitals, but nowadays, it has become major to provide electricity and clean
cooking, fuel, to millions of people around the world.
So you have seen the potential for DRE, especially for image access, and as portrayed already
by Rana and her slides, there is massive growing market there, and there's, just take some
more figure, but really rough figure about submitting off grid solar. We see that like
off grid solar compared what was invested last year for only the month of January of
this year has been like almost half of [inaudible] already been invested. Some piece industry
I would say studies cannot portray that for market for off grid liking products in Africa
has kind of like booming. Like [inaudible] what provinces. And that only represents 5%
of a potential market in that particular continent. So I mean 5.4 million products sold in 2014
and only 5% of a potential market.
So there's massive role to improve massive role, invest massive role for any kind of
like private sector industries to going to that particular market into that. The diagram
on which, on the bottom of slide kind of shows a number of customers for [inaudible] utilities
around [inaudible]. And it's quite interesting to see big names like Ena or EDF, OEN, Overton
4. And so really big utilities around the world. And we have a particular one which
is like lying down of the ninth position. Maybe it's Delight, which is one company which
is kind of special tasking to solar off grid systems, mainly solar lighting systems and
solar home systems. And to see that like for a particular company, which is meant for gasses
on distributed or decentralized renewable energy systems, we found we got them out of
customers, and I would say the top ten companies around the world in terms of utilities shows
how the market is growing and how the market is proving to be a key player in the coming
years.
Some key figures which I'm sure most of you have come across for your research, for your
readings, or just in the news, so along the way, it's estimated that like 26 million household
are currently being served by off-grid renewable energy. Twenty-eight million people have been
provided with solar lighting according to figures from the lighting program, which is
an IFC World Bank initiative. And in Bangladesh, where I was saying earlier about like some
nine to 10% of the population currently served by solar home systems.
What has been observed in the past month is like every month, like 60,000 sort of home
systems being deployed. And I'll come back to Bangladesh later on because I've pointed
out it's a very good example of what is being done to provide energy access to a population
for distributed renewable energy. And how the market is booming and how the market is
really growing and maturing. And if you go, I mean I was saying across the news, everywhere
you'd come across figures telling you that something is being invested in distributed
or off-grid renewable energy, I feel like the figures is all about how many systems
are being active, the tech [inaudible] for example, we want to achieve one million solar
homes. If you take, for example, institution of Ghana, which aims at 200,000 solar systems
in the next five years, they will want to kind of invest and provide solar energy panel
to a million people in its country.
And USAID had just announced last month that it is investing 41 million in India on off
grid renewable energy. So figures are quite big, figures are quite impressive, and figures
quite rightly portrays economic situation, a growing market, for DRE political, providing
energies. So building up what we have seen, mainly that we have a need, and we have kind
of recognition nowadays, [inaudible] a strategy to go forward and provide access while it
is electricity where it is for clean cooking solutions to people to billions of people
around the world. We also have this particular situation where we have some kind of fragments,
some kinds of piece of a puzzle of what is really happening and what role kind of renewables
full distributed renewable energy systems are playing.
And [inaudible]_ because it kind of shows what kind of a shadow paradox. In a sense
when have some kind of light energy emitting light in one direction. On the other side,
it causes a shadow. This I think kind of represent the situation right now when it comes to DRE
data that is distributed renewable energy data. On one side, which is the kind where
it's costing light, we have things like some six million household installed solar home
systems installed worldwide. In one country like Kenya, solar lanterns are provided lighting
to some 12% of the population. In just [inaudible] in 2009, it was only 2%. In Bangladesh right
now, as you have said, it's 9% or 10% of a population. I think it is for [inaudible]
with 3.8 million solar home systems installed in that country.
And on the other side, we can't really have [inaudible] of a role of DRE, mainly in terms
of how many megawatt or kilowatt has been installed. What is the current generation,
and what is the current share of DRE in the renewable energy market in particular continents
in particular region, and worldwide, and what is the role being played by DRE in kind of
boosting and booming [inaudible] segment in those region. So it's a bit kind of a paradox.
On one side, we have lots of formation of what is being achieved in terms of tangible
stuff, but on the other side, one of a [inaudible] proving it. So renewable energy providing
that light, renewable energy providing clean [inaudible] solutions to people. On the other
side, we can freely quantify what is that role of renewable energies today, what is,
how much is that segment quite significant? And this data [inaudible] has earlier been
kind of portrayed and highlighted in a study made by Rana of renewable energy. Well the
two main conclusions are that we have a growing market, which I have just seen the key figures
in this previous slide, but there is kind of an effort that is needed. You cannot portray
and develop [inaudible] able and up-to-date data sets on DRE, and this is an energy that
is needed right now. So this can be done for two steps, whether kind of informal data from
basic actors and stakeholders investing in the, in [inaudible] countries and at country
level, and this is where I'm going to consider a little bit later on how country statistics
can be improved and what is being done to improve country statistics on renewable energy
and of data.
So one of the key issue are I don't really have a good picture and a good overview of
the DRE market is because first of all, we have a lack of country reporting and consolidation
to try their assistance. Just like if I take 15 years ago, we had a lack of reporting mechanism
and kind of collection mechanism on DRE systems. So country statistics were created capturing
what was happening in the renewable energy world. Right now, we have the same thing for
DRE systems. And one of two reasons for this is particularly that country statistics, you
look at systems that are kind of more than one megawatt installed capacity. So if you
take the case of DRE systems, we're talking about [inaudible] systems, and those are not
less captured within the country statistic spot. Also lack of reporting from donors,
from private sector, from NGOs, or from industries.
On their activities, on their initiatives under their projects. Although I must say
that in the past couple of months, one of the things we've seen while working a particular
field is that it's not really a lack of reporting as such because we do report internally, it's
a lack of sharing that information wherever. And we have that information somewhere, but
we have to dig to get it, or we have information in a nonconsolidated way. So there is some
kind of screening in a way that [inaudible]. I was saying the forecast has been on the
end rather than on the means, the end being providing energy access to people. So how
many people do we provide an edge to, how many people are being served by a particular
system? How many people are being provided with electricity
or lighting? How many people are now being able to cook with a clean cooking solution?
Well the means is about the source for renewable energy that is being used in most cases. So
we focus rather on the [inaudible], but not on the means of doing it. And [inaudible]
put a picture in terms of impact. So X amount of people is being provided X, that represent
X amount of a population is being provided with energy access. It doesn't give credit
over renewable energy in that particular field. And what it does, actually, what it may do,
it may actually undermine the whole world of renewable energy because we focus on okay,
yes, we are providing energy access for systems, for distributed systems to people.
But for what means? Since we don't have the data quantify of the mean, the part of a mean
is being kind of put aside. And it's quite funny to think in an interview in The Financial
Times two weeks or one week ago, one of the head of the World Coal Association was kind
of like putting forward a case for the use of coal actually to come back in energy property.
And I was just looking at the way he was portraying his argument. I was saying that I already
have the figures to show that no matter how much renewable energy is being, what role
and how much renewable energy is actually being used to provide energy access in the
world and how much renewable energy has provided with [inaudible] and how much progress actually
has been made, it's due to renewable energy. That will undermine all of his arguments he
was putting forward in his article. And the other reason is that at times, we might have
data from a current study from something for one that has no job on it. That data comes
let's say for 2012. You look at the same data for 2014, there is just not update on that
data. At times, it did not really are able, in the sense that we have contributing data
for, from, maybe from a same source or same country or same project. So I was saying one
major implication of having those data gaps on the [inaudible] market is that we don't
have a proper understanding of market dynamics, and really the role played by renewable energy
in providing energy access.
And this can kind of like prohibit some decision-making in putting the right policy instrument or
right frameworks in the right enabling environment to attract and [inaudible] investment in this
particular sector. Just a little reporting of something that happened last week. I was
actually in a meeting talking about energy, and in, it all concerned a country that would
face, that had huge, a huge problem, huge challenge in the coming years, which is a
blackout situation. That country for the past couple years had been investing large in renewable
energy. There was a clean way of going that was more renewable energy.
The simple fact that there was this blackout issue that was coming popping up, this did
make, there was some kind of shift in the way policy makers were reacting in the sense
that they were no more looking about how can we increase our capacity for renewable energy,
how can we make this renewable energy more progress and boom in our country, but whatever
the key question was more about okay, how do we produce more, how do we [inaudible]
blackout. Irrespective from what we were doing, irrespective of the sources we're using. So
what I'm trying to say is that like when you lack the data to reassure what is the role
of which technology and how it can play a role to serve many other programs that you
may have, what happens is you are often put it aside.
But as I think Einstein would say, if you don't, never did I, if you can't measure a
problem, if one can't measure a solution that can be put forward to serve a program, we're
never going to be able to make a change for it. That's the paradox that we have. Renewable
energy actually from the data, from the present pieces that we have, is playing a big role
in the energy access market, but actually we can't really quantify how much. We can
for some projects, we can for some countries, but not for a particular region, not for a
whole world. And I kind of love that side because it just kind of portray one of the
key message for, we tried to do at REN21 over the past couple months and over the past couple
years through the GSR and particularly on a chapter on DRE.
So the top picture is [inaudible], and what is quite interesting for us, it's like we
almost see the same image of a moon where I felt we are on the planet, and whatever
we do, we kind of see the same image of the moon most of the time. And the picture of
a button is a [inaudible] released picture from NASA which actually portrayed the other
side of the moon, the part that we don’t see. Kind of like a satellite which was moving
away and just turn around and had this picture, and just say that okay, we had a picture of
a moon first, and we knew that it was here. And we kind of used to how it was. When we
look at the side, we had another kind of like perspective.
And in DRE, it's the same thing. What we are trying to kind of like change if initiatives
at REN21, like is really change, have a look at the other side of the moon. So we have
been used to people telling us we have X amount of solar home systems, we have X amount of
solar lighting, we have X, we have X amount of people being served by many grids, and
many grid could be biomass or biogas based, hydro based, or solar based. But we are trying
to see the other side of it. It's how much megawatt, how much kilowatt does that represent,
and how does it fit within the whole energy strategy of a country.
And I won't spend too much time on this one because I think Rana has quite covered that
bit, but saying that we have a particular section which talks about distributed renewable
energy for energy access, which given the second sensors, given the data available,
purely and solely can concentrate on providing that information about how many people for
sure will illustrate what kind of technology is being used, what kind of new technology
can be used for different segments, for lighting, for cooking, for providing higher grade level,
to move along for energy level. What kind of like systems renewable energy base can
be used. And we have done for the past edition of energy, so we have tried to contact donors,
we have tried to contact international organizations, private sector people, industries, and tried
to get the data from them.
Okay, you are working that particular country, you are working a particular region, you are
working on providing energy access, and most of the time, what you're working on is based
on renewable energy. So how much are you kind of like working with, and at the start, I
had been working, I say, "Okay, we literally work, we will really be able to gather data
from people maybe who don't have the data maybe because from our side, we haven't seen
much reporting." Maybe data that doesn't exist, and what you have seen is massive. You look
at the table, actually, I think it's once over five or seven big, I think Rana may correct
me afterwards, but of data we have been able to gather for different regions of [inaudible].
And it was quite amusing the response that we did get. It was like massive we are able
and truly tremendous data showing what we sense we usually had a feeling about all the
growing market in the DRE segment. But what was quite frustrating at the end of the day,
it's like let's say if you take the case of Mozambique, for example, even the data that
we have on different units of the data that we have, oh, not even the same unit or does
it cover the same kind of technology, or they are not in a consolidated manner being portrayed
here or rather than by projects or by initiative. One of, able really to innovate let's say
for solar in Mozambique. We have X amount for DRE, and we know that we have let's say
ten megawatt of solar that [inaudible], but just for illustration.
We have ten megawatt of solar installed in Mozambique, and out of it, four is from DRE
systems. This kind of information is what you're trying to portray, but we are kind
of struggling with it to portray in that particular way.
>> TIM REBER: Fabiani, sorry, we're just starting to get a little conscious of time, and we
would like to try and save some time at the end for questions. So start to wrap up in
the next five or ten minutes, leave at least a little time here for questions, that'd be
great.
>> FABIANI APPAVOU: That's good. That works.
>> TIM REBER: Thank you.
>> FABIANI APPAVOU: So I think I have five or six slides coming, so that will be coming.
I was talking about this other side of the DRE market. If you talk about Bangladesh,
if you talk about the [inaudible] people installed, 15 million people being provided with solar
system, roughly 10%. But then if we dig further and we dig through the national authority
in charge of providing energy access, this [inaudible] have a figure for making it work.
It's 155 megawatt currently. And actually want to provide energy access to everyone
at REN21, which kind of represent 24 gigawatt to be installed by that time. We are to expect
10%.
So we can say that for particular market, but like Bangladesh, we do have the figures
available. Same thing for India. India actually has a very good country statistic system in
place. For sure we can say that like there's much improvement in terms of providing the
data in terms of megawatt or gigawatt for solar power, but at least there's some kind
of accounting being made about how many has been installed in each and every state of
the country.
Same thing for Ghana. I think if you go through all the SFO documents about country action
agent over [inaudible], you see that like in those documents, there are lots of information
on number of megawatt installed capacity for solar for instance in Ghana. And the fact
that those information are being complied and available just shows that the data are
not so scarce. It's not really any issue about it's not being collected or, but just we are
not aware. We need to dig for it, and the energy some kind of assistance to get information
from the other side of the moon to the side that we can see.
Same thing for a company like Delight, which is very much involved now on 60 countries
I believe in providing solar lighting portable systems. And if it kind of like [inaudible]
by saying that like we have that 50, one million people, and so on, one people, 1.1 billion
in terms of energy expenses, we have [inaudible] about 81 gigawatt hour of electricity generated.
So again, we can have the data. On the other side, we have companies such as Solar Aid
who just portray, but have been the same side of the moon that we see is how many people
are being served, how much money is being saved. But really lacking that part of telling
us the whole story of how many megawatt has been installed.
This is from Power Africa annual report. The edition is July 2014. Well [inaudible] had
been stopped by technology. Those data from the Foundation for Real World Energy System.
The services [inaudible], which can have a very good reporting overview of how many systems
are being stored, what type of systems are being stored, and most importantly for us
at REN21. How many kilowatt is being stored? So just to go the key constraint again, one
of the key issues I was saying is the up to date data that we have. The frequency of reporting
of the data actually is kind of important for most projects I have seen for most initiative
that have a very good reporting system. We kind of go for like every two years, one and
a half year, or when actually the industry is doing kind of a study on the particular
market.
I was saying that less than one megawatt you need is usually not captured in country statistics,
and most of the data collection reporting is [inaudible] on the end with energy metrics.
So those are the things that we kind of need to change. And what we have been doing at
REN21 is kind of contacting stakeholders, people working in the field and trying to
see how we can work together to have a better picture of the situation. One good example
is actually energizing development initiative where from their actually published report
I've seen, it's kind of how many people have been served, how many systems have been installed.
But just [inaudible], we did realize we actually have the data on how many kilowatt hour, how
many kilowatt has been installed. And we just gave some kind of gleam of hope that we are
moving in the right direction, and there are some kind of information being portrayed.
Just need to be able to tap into those information. And to the countries, to the private sector,
and to all stakeholders, being able to capture some second [inaudible] and capture voice
information will be indeed helpful for building the momentum for DRE systems. So this will
be my last slide, and I starting by saying my presentation would be tracking shadows,
and I kind of [inaudible] that we have this shadow effect of when you interject in it
light in one direction, and the other side is kind of crossed with shadows. What we're
trying to do and what we're trying to achieve is really have these different pieces to make
us have this beautiful picture.
This is actually what we call a light and shadow painting, which is casting light on
translucent objects. And you might say that right now, what we have on the DRE sector
if we have some kind of opaque objects, but we are trying to make translucent so that
we can have a beautiful picture. So shadows are not just shadows, but can be used to bring
to light information that otherwise we wouldn't be able to foresee. So thank you for your
kind attention, thank, that's it. If you have any question,
>> RANA ADIB: and I, I think, would be happy to answer.
>> TIM REBER: Okay, great, thank you so much, Fabiani, and thank you again to Rana. We do
in fact have quite a few questions that have come in, and those of you in attendance who
would like to ask us more questions, feel free to do so. So without any further ado,
I guess we'll just jump right into it. So our first question has to do with wondering
if it's possible to get a very short, brief overview about how the percentages of renewables
are calculated and where and how the data for calculation is gathered. I don't know,
Rana or Fabiani, if either of you could speak briefly to that issue. Just remember, you
might be on mute as well.
>> FABIANI APPAVOU: Can you repeat the question again, please?
>> TIM REBER: Sure, they're asking about the percentages of renewables. For example, renewables
accounting for 27.7% of global power generation capacity, and they're just wondering if they
can get a very short overview of how those numbers are calculated and where that data
comes from.
>> RANA ADIB: I think I'll take that question. If the person will answer who asked that question
if he wants some more details, because that's really digging into the math [inaudible],
I suggest that we can follow up by e-mail. In principle, the information comes we're
collecting data from country contributors. We're working together with the industry associations,
collecting this information and obviously we're also working together with IEA and mainly
with IEA, partly with Irina to have a good understanding of the reliability of the data.
We're collecting also from the informal sector, and then we have an authoring team and a research
direction team who are basically doing the data crunching, coming up with the figures,
and also coordinating it a lot with IEA to come up with share figures specifically.
When it comes to the install capacities, it's a fact that over in the different renewable
energy technologies over the last ten years, we really established a very good understanding
of the renewable energy markets. We have a close collaboration, and they are partly membered.
They're in all part of our network in any case with the global, regional, partly national
industry associations and technology platforms. So that there is a very good established dialect.
If you want some more information on the methodology, please don't hesitate to drop me an e-mail,
and also in the figures, in the numbers themselves, how they are calculated, it's not part of
the hard copy, but in the electronic version, there is I think something like probably 50%
of end notes where we really tried to be very transparent on how we calculated the information,
what type of data has been included on it.
>> TIM REBER: Okay, great. Thank you very much. Moving on, another question has to do
with what institutions might help you be using entrepreneurs and setting up distributed energy
products, both from a technical and financial standpoint?
>> RANA ADIB: Yeah, you can also answer, Fabiani. I think you have a, you're probably better
place.
>> FABIANI APPAVOU: Not so sure about that. I mean what we have seen with the, particularly
in the DRE market and particularly concerning solar, there has been a huge boom of what
we call pay as you go sources, innovative business models coming out, kind of making
use of technology. And what has happened at least like with everything of technology and
providing energy solution has been one of the reasons why there has been lots of [inaudible]
room. Of course, mountain [inaudible] in that particular sector. Do you want to add something,
Rana?
>> RANA ADIB: I think that what we also see is basically on what institutions, what we
clearly see a part of, there is a purely commercial market. What we see, however, if we really
want to scale up, basically, the development of DRE, and also involve I mean as a public
private partnerships, then it is extremely important to really have the policy frameworks.
Obviously I mean the barriers of which are still existing is really for protective purpose.
Access to finance. This is really an issue, and the stability of policy frameworks not
only linked to I'd say energy, but in general in many developing countries is a challenge
for attracting basically investors, but also accessing industry and technologies. So I
think there is not only one answer to this. It depends very much on the market sources
and the policy framework in a country. What we clearly see it that then that a good
collaboration between a public private collaboration is certainly an increasing trend, even in
countries like Bangladesh where you have the policy framework. It always builds on private
sector, too.
>> TIM REBER: Great, thank you. So we have a question here interested in whether or not
you have any information or could refer folks to any studies concerning the break-even distance
where Micro Bid and/or solar home systems are more cost competitive than extending the
network. If there are rules of thumb or some sort of formulas for figuring that out.
>> RANA ADIB: I think there is the World Energy Outlook from 2012, there was really focus
on energy access where basically the electrification strategies and also basically the shares of
how many people would be electrified based on the electric grid. Many grids in isolated
systems is included. I don't have this, the details of mine, but I'm pretty sure this
is based on some rules, cost rules, et cetera. Again, don't hesitate to drop me an e-mail.
I can put you in touch with the right person at IEA. This would be one study I can think
of. The other part would certainly be to have a look in end of publications. Yeah. I don't
know, Fabiani, did you come along with something else?
>> FABIANI APPAVOU: Yeah, if I may add, I think like whenever I work with [inaudible]
cost effectiveness of off-grid or on-grid, but just for that mutual [inaudible], I think
if I was going to extract of a world [inaudible] outlook, if I was in need of a [inaudible]
2012 for all, that kind of goes down to the details, kind of portrays, okay, for on-grid,
how much would it cost, and for off-grid, how much would it cost, and kind of as competitiveness.
There's another kind of study on the IFC, but [inaudible] 2012. Trying to search for
the name of a study. But that study goes down for that level as technology by technology,
ensuring that if you go for this kind of upgrade technology based on renewables, it's kind
of hard because of competitiveness, but maybe countries could be looking for. Maybe just
[inaudible], and I will kind of [inaudible]_ those two studies and kind of forward it to
you.
>> TIM REBER: Great, thank you again to both. For those in the audience, we'll share both
Fabiani's and Rana's e-mail through the chat. So those of you who are interested in reaching
out for more information can do so. Moving on, a couple more questions. What are the
best and most efficient policy initiatives that could be used by governments in order
to stimulate increases in distributed energy, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa?
>> RANA ADIB: It's a really hard question because it really depends on the market [inaudible]
players, too. Very clearly, when we see many grid development, one feedback is clearly
allowing for independent power producers so that that's the basis, and so that players
are legal in selling electricity. When it comes to tariffs and regulations, we really
see that highly subsidized - and that's really linked to the fact that energy prices, energy
tariffs are very political in many developing countries. So this is something which where
they need to be of a very close discussion between the government and also private players
on the tariff setting, whether it is for isolated systems or mini-grids just because often,
the subsidized tariffs, fossil fuel based tariffs do not allow for cost covering activities
of private players.
I think that's two very critical points. The other part is also when we are really thinking
about the renewable energy technologies, working on standards and quality which are used basically
in the countries to really allow for a sustainability of renewable energy market development just
because we really see from the past experience that bad technology has a major impact on
the acceptance of renewable energy technologies by non-electrified people.
>> FABIANI APPAVOU: Yeah, building on what Rana was saying, I always kind of say that
we try to identify right policy kind of framework or right policy makes to kind of move, to
kind of increase the role or increase investment in DRE. They talk a lot about the risk. As
Rana always said, that's always the kind of policy and political race associated with
energy because it's such a sensitive issue. And if you don't kind of address political
and policy risk, people won't really be interested in going. And in one ways of going for it
is as Rana was saying what PPA is, what power budgets, agreements, and so on. But kind of
establish down the line some kind of rules where people investing in it know that okay,
you have a market here. We can invest by assuring that short region and long-term that we will
be able to continue to make profits, continue to go into that market and increase our coverage.
When I was also talking about the market and commercial [inaudible] to it, and this is
linked to the systems within that particular country. As I was saying earlier, one of the
goal that has been happening is really about innovative business models growing out, and
this has been able to do kind of like technology [inaudible] market, the use of mobile phones
and so on. So it all depends how the market is structured, what are the technical barriers
that have been broken down for the whole environment to be kind of safe and sound [inaudible].
>> TIM REBER: Great. Wonderful. Thank you very much again. Another question. Wondering
what the estimates are with regard to investment required to achieve universal energy access.
I think they're looking for rough ballpark numbers, questions specifically are we talking
closer to 70 billion or 700 billion, and also along terms of timing, is 2025, 2035, what's
more sort of a reasonable outlook?
>> FABIANI APPAVOU: I would like to, it depends on how you see the [inaudible]. I think the
100 billion is a fairly conservative one when we take into account, we either think that
okay, it might take much more time to invest in some kind of technologies, invest in putting
in [inaudible] to build it, and the 70 billion is more of a very kind of optimistic power.
I would characterize it as wishful thinking, but rather than like okay, we can come into
the country, we have a technology, we have kind of a systems in place, we know how to
use it, how to deploy it. We just come in country, come into origin and deploy it right
away. And this is what was really the case. I think we were actually being [inaudible]
by 2023, we're on 70 billion for sure.
But given the current state of affairs, given that some countries are not on the same level
at all, the different regions defers in the ways they treat universal, they treat distributed
renewable energy, and in some regions, there's always some kind of like reluctance to move
that way because it's something that we don't know. So I would say it is in kind of between.
But I think efforts are being made. I'm not so sure about being able to achieve it by
2023. Just 70 billion. But I'm kind of sure we'll be able to achieve the energy access
for given the dynamic information put in place, and the incentive being granted by 2035. Seven
hundred billion, we'll see.
>> TIM REBER: Great, thank you again. So it looks like we'll have time for maybe one more
question. Those of you who didn't get your questions answered, we'll be sharing those
via e-mail with Rana and Fabiani afterwards. So hopefully we can get those questions, and
again you can reach out to either of them directly for further questions. So final question
is just wondering if you can give a little more information about how to participate
and help out with the next global status report, GSR 2016.
>> RANA ADIB: Okay, so what I'd suggest is to, I think I included this in the slide.
There is an e-mail address. Either you can send me an e-mail directly to Rana.Adib@[inaudible].net,
or an e-mail to GSR for Global Stats Report @REN21.net. We will start data collection
in October, so basically we're really looking for project developers, practitioners, industry,
industry associations, NGOs, development organizations, development banks, private investors to participate
in that process. We are looking for country information, so really information on what
are the noteworthy trends in a country, policy frameworks. Here we have a questionnaire which
is predefined where we also have a specific part on distributed renewable energy, and
the table Fabiani presented. So we will prepare basically an Excel sheet where we are collecting
quantitative information, and this will be sent around more to the organizations, program
developers, project developers.
In partly, you can just send us an e-mail if you have one information on your project,
your, the project you are doing, we are partly also taking, I mean we're doing desk research
obviously in the authoring teams. So it is quite flexible, but we try to streamline it
along a questionnaire and along this Excel sheet we will send around. The best way is
really to make sure that you are in our database, so to say, of the GSR community so that you
receive the information and by the different data collection processes. Another part is,
as I mentioned, we have a peer review. There are two peer review round. The one on distributed
renewable energy will take place in January. This is always another easy way to also contribute.
So basically see what is already there. We will certainly circulate in this context the,
this reference table we plan to produce or the Excel sheet so that you can also compliment
information in the peer review.
And if you would like to have more detailed questions or more targeted, we're always available
per e-mail to schedule a call. We can even do if you have networks you would like to
mobilize, it's important for them to be aware of this platform. Don't hesitate. We can also
organize specific webinars or join calls. So we're happy to do so.
>> TIM REBER: Okay, great. Well that's about all the time we have. So thank you very much
to both of you, Rana and Fabiani. One last thing before we close. We just have a very
short survey, three questions for those in attendance to answer so that we can get some
feedback on how we've done. So if you can go ahead and answer the first question you
see on your screen there, we'd appreciate it. Okay, thank you. And second question.
And one final question. Okay, great, thanks for answering the poll. Once again, I'd like
to extend a warm thank you to Rana and Fabiani of REN21 for presenting today. I'd also like
to thank everybody in attendance for joining us. We invite you to check the Solutions Center
website if you'd like to view the slides and listen to a recording of today's presentation,
which should be posted hopefully within the week.
You'll also find information on other upcoming webinars and training events on the Solutions
Center website. We invite you to inform your colleagues and those in your networks about
the Solutions Center resources and services, including our no-cost ask an expert policy
support. And with that, we'd like to invite everybody to enjoy the rest of your day, and
we look forward to seeing everybody at future solutions center event. Thank you very much.