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  • Violence

    暴力 そして戦争

  • and war.

    ISISの狂気は続き

  • The insane brutality of ISIS continues,

    ロシアはウクライナに侵攻

  • the Russians are invading Ukraine,

    中東紛争は熾烈さを増す

  • and the Palestinians and Israelis

    気が滅入る?

  • continue to slug it out.

    でも待って 統計を見よう

  • Does that make you feel gloomy?

    戦争は少なくなっているし

  • Well

    世界人口は今が一番多い

  • don't.

    歴史的には 今が一番平和なようだ

  • Because if you look at the numbers

    どういうことか

  • war actually seems

    2014年 世界には4つの衝突があり

  • to be going out of fashion,

    この1年で1万人が死んだ

  • while the global population

    他の地域でも小規模の紛争があり

  • is at an all time high.

    それぞれ多くの人が死んだ

  • It seems that we live

    平和には遠いかもしれない

  • in the most peaceful period

    しかし 国同士の戦争はない

  • in human history.

    すべて内紛か 地域紛争だ

  • How is this possible?

    紛争は大きな混乱を招くが

  • (music)

    国同士の戦争よりは 影響は少ない

  • As of September 2014,

    国同士の戦争では 軍隊が出動し

  • there were 4 conflicts going on

    国にある資源を使ったり

  • in the world that'd caused at least

    人口を投入できるからだ

  • 10,000 people to die since January 2013.

    では なぜ戦争は

  • 9 conflicts that killed

    紛争へと移行したのか

  • more than 1,000 people

    植民地政策と冷戦が関係している

  • and 13 that killed

    冷戦が終わった時 国の戦争も消えた

  • more than 100 since January 2013.

    だが独裁共産主義の解体は

  • Not really peaceful,

    国内部に新たな緊張を生みだし

  • but consider this:

    結果として紛争となった

  • of all the conflicts going on

    また1945年には アフリカや

  • none is an active war between countries.

    アジアやラテンアメリカが

  • They are either civil wars

    植民地支配下に置かれたが

  • or local conflicts.

    1990年までに すべての国が独立した

  • Although civil wars are terrible

    だが 今日の多国籍企業の行為は

  • and cause huge suffering,

    植民地政策並にひどくないだろうか

  • their impact is usually way smaller

    コンゴを見てみよう

  • than a war between nations or empires.

    1885年 ベルギーの植民地として建国

  • When two nations engage in war,

    国土はベルギーの80倍

  • they can mobilise much bigger forces,

    現地人への暴力と

  • have access to all of the state's

    冷酷な経済搾取によって

  • resources and logistics and

    1908年までに 人口は半減した

  • almost all of the population.

    1000万人が処刑や飢餓により死んだ

  • So why have we transitioned from

    ケガを負った人も多くいた

  • wars between nation states

    その後も経済搾取が最優先され

  • wars between nation states

    強制労働が終わったのは

  • A lot of it is to do with

    支配が終わる1960年だった

  • colonialism and the cold war.

    そう遠くない過去だ

  • When the cold war ended, a major driver of

    とてもひどい

  • armed conflicts vanished too.

    だが植民地支配が終わったのは

  • But the break up of the

    たったの2世代前

  • communist dictatorships

    今紛争が起きている地域は

  • revealed new or old tensions

    60年前 植民地だった地域だ

  • and brought new conflicts

    良くなったこともある

  • in the now freed states

    昔 紛争は決着が付くまで続いたが

  • which often resulted in civil war.

    今ではそれは珍しく

  • Much more importantly,

    交渉による決着は

  • in 1945,

    10%から40%に急増した

  • nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,

    他の国はどうか

  • and parts of Latin America

    なぜ国は戦争をやめたのか

  • were under colonial rule.

    4つの理由がある

  • By 1990,

    1つは 民主化

  • all but a few islands were independent.

    民主主義は着実に発展した

  • But wait.

    民主国家同士は戦いづらい

  • Couldn't you argue that what today's

    20世紀に起きた戦争でも

  • multinational corporations

    民主国家同士は少なかった

  • are doing in the third world

    2つに 国際化

  • is just as bad as colonialism?

    戦争は 利益を得るには

  • Let's look at Congo.

    良い手段ではなくなった

  • It was established as a colony in 1885

    国際市場で買う方が

  • by the Belgium king.

    軍を動かすより安くなったのだ

  • An area 80 times the size of Belgium.

    相手は殺すより生かした方がお得

  • Violence committed against

    新しい概念の誕生である

  • the indigenous Congolese

    3つに 戦争は前時代的すぎる

  • and the ruthless system of

    第一次世界大戦まで 戦争は

  • economic exploitation

    人間の宿命であり

  • had killed about half of the population

    外交目標達成のための

  • by 1908.

    有力な道具と見られていた

  • About 10 million Congolese were executed

    今日 侵略は違法であるとされ

  • or starved to death.

    武装は 自衛のためか

  • Millions were mutilated and traumatised.

    国連安保理にのみ認められる

  • The economic exploitation of the Congo

    守られてないものの

  • remained the top priority

    堂々と反対を表明するのは難しい

  • and forced labor never really ceased

    また 国際司法裁判所など

  • completely until the end of Belgium rule

    新しい試みも生まれている

  • in 1960.

    4つに 国境が確定したこと

  • Which is not really that long ago.

    第二次世界大戦後 国々は

  • So, no.

    国際的な国境の受け入れと

  • Colonialism was much worse than

    他国自主権の尊重を誓った

  • vulture capitalism is today

    これは例外か それとも平和への道か

  • and it ended just two generations ago.

    真実はまだわからない

  • Most of the conflicts

    一つ実例が必要だ

  • that are going on right now

    1世紀あたり平均

  • are in areas that 60 years ago

    1つか2つの大戦争があり

  • were under foreign control.

    今は先の大戦からまだ近い

  • But things are getting better.

    次の75年 大戦争がなければ

  • Until 1989,

    人間性は変わったと言える

  • victory for one side in a civil war

    戦争はなくなるのかも

  • was common

    確かに 紛争はまだあるが

  • while nowadays victories are much rarer.

    全体的には良くなった

  • At the same time,

    平和を訴えれば もっと良くなれる

  • negotiated endings have jumped from 10%

    Subtitles by the Amara.org community

  • to almost 40%.

  • What about the rest of the world?

  • Why have nation states

  • stopped attacking each other?

  • There are 4 major reasons:

  • One.

  • Democratisation.

  • The steady development

  • from autocracy to democracy.

  • Democracies hardly ever fight each other.

  • Of all the state against state wars

  • fought since 1900, only a minority

  • were fought between democracies.

  • Two.

  • Globalisation.

  • War is just not as effective at achieving

  • economic goals as it used to be.

  • Today it's almost always cheaper

  • to buy resources on the global market

  • than to cease them by force.

  • People from other nations are

  • more valuable to us alive than dead.

  • Which, overall, is a pretty new concept.

  • Three.

  • War is so 20th century.

  • Until World War I, warfare was seen as an

  • inevitable part of the human experience

  • and as a valuable tool which you could use

  • to achieve goals when diplomacy

  • hit a brick wall.

  • Today we have rules that declare acts of

  • aggression illegal and stipulate that

  • armed forces is only justified in

  • self-defence or with the authority of the

  • UN Security Council.

  • These rules are still broken but today

  • it's harder to do so without sparking

  • oppositions and disapproval.

  • Also, we have an international court for

  • war crimes in The Hague.

  • And that's a very recent innovation.

  • Four.

  • Borders are mostly fixed now.

  • After World War II,

  • territorial wars generally stopped

  • when most countries pledged to accept

  • international borders

  • and respect other nations autonomy.

  • But is all of this just an anomaly

  • or are we on the road to lasting peace?

  • Truth is

  • we don't know yet.

  • We need a big enough sample to rule out

  • the historical average, which is about

  • one or two big wars per century.

  • We just haven't had enough time since

  • World War II to rule out the possibility

  • that war is not going away.

  • If we don't have one major war

  • in the next 75 years,

  • we can be really confident

  • that humanity is changing.

  • So you see, war might be over.

  • Yes there are nasty conflicts

  • going on in many places but overall,

  • things are getting better.

  • And we can make them even better

  • by speaking up for peace and democracy.

  • Subtitles by the Amara.org community

Violence

暴力 そして戦争

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B1 中級 日本語 戦争 紛争 植民 同士 国際 民主

戦争は終わったのか?- パラドックスの説明 (Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained)

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    羅紹桀 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
動画の中の単語