and war.

ISISの狂気は続き

The insane brutality of ISIS continues,

ロシアはウクライナに侵攻

the Russians are invading Ukraine,

中東紛争は熾烈さを増す

and the Palestinians and Israelis

気が滅入る？

continue to slug it out.

でも待って　統計を見よう

Does that make you feel gloomy?

戦争は少なくなっているし

Well

世界人口は今が一番多い

don't.

歴史的には 今が一番平和なようだ

Because if you look at the numbers

どういうことか

war actually seems

2014年 世界には４つの衝突があり

to be going out of fashion,

この１年で１万人が死んだ

while the global population

他の地域でも小規模の紛争があり

is at an all time high.

それぞれ多くの人が死んだ

It seems that we live

平和には遠いかもしれない

in the most peaceful period

しかし 国同士の戦争はない

in human history.

すべて内紛か 地域紛争だ

How is this possible?

紛争は大きな混乱を招くが

(music)

国同士の戦争よりは 影響は少ない

As of September 2014,

国同士の戦争では 軍隊が出動し

there were 4 conflicts going on

国にある資源を使ったり

in the world that'd caused at least

人口を投入できるからだ

10,000 people to die since January 2013.

では なぜ戦争は

9 conflicts that killed

紛争へと移行したのか

more than 1,000 people

植民地政策と冷戦が関係している

and 13 that killed

冷戦が終わった時 国の戦争も消えた

more than 100 since January 2013.

だが独裁共産主義の解体は

Not really peaceful,

国内部に新たな緊張を生みだし

but consider this:

結果として紛争となった

of all the conflicts going on

また1945年には アフリカや

none is an active war between countries.

アジアやラテンアメリカが

They are either civil wars

植民地支配下に置かれたが

or local conflicts.

1990年までに すべての国が独立した

Although civil wars are terrible

だが 今日の多国籍企業の行為は

and cause huge suffering,

植民地政策並にひどくないだろうか

their impact is usually way smaller

コンゴを見てみよう

than a war between nations or empires.

1885年 ベルギーの植民地として建国

When two nations engage in war,

国土はベルギーの80倍

they can mobilise much bigger forces,

現地人への暴力と

have access to all of the state's

冷酷な経済搾取によって

resources and logistics and

1908年までに 人口は半減した

almost all of the population.

1000万人が処刑や飢餓により死んだ

So why have we transitioned from

ケガを負った人も多くいた

wars between nation states

その後も経済搾取が最優先され

wars between nation states

強制労働が終わったのは

A lot of it is to do with

支配が終わる1960年だった

colonialism and the cold war.

そう遠くない過去だ

When the cold war ended, a major driver of

とてもひどい

armed conflicts vanished too.

だが植民地支配が終わったのは

But the break up of the

たったの２世代前

communist dictatorships

今紛争が起きている地域は

revealed new or old tensions

60年前 植民地だった地域だ

and brought new conflicts

良くなったこともある

in the now freed states

昔 紛争は決着が付くまで続いたが

which often resulted in civil war.

今ではそれは珍しく

Much more importantly,

交渉による決着は

in 1945,

10％から40％に急増した

nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,

他の国はどうか

and parts of Latin America

なぜ国は戦争をやめたのか

were under colonial rule.

４つの理由がある

By 1990,

１つは 民主化

all but a few islands were independent.

民主主義は着実に発展した

But wait.

民主国家同士は戦いづらい

Couldn't you argue that what today's

20世紀に起きた戦争でも

multinational corporations

民主国家同士は少なかった

are doing in the third world

２つに 国際化

is just as bad as colonialism?

戦争は 利益を得るには

Let's look at Congo.

良い手段ではなくなった

It was established as a colony in 1885

国際市場で買う方が

by the Belgium king.

軍を動かすより安くなったのだ

An area 80 times the size of Belgium.

相手は殺すより生かした方がお得

Violence committed against

新しい概念の誕生である

the indigenous Congolese

３つに 戦争は前時代的すぎる

and the ruthless system of

第一次世界大戦まで 戦争は

economic exploitation

人間の宿命であり

had killed about half of the population

外交目標達成のための

by 1908.

有力な道具と見られていた

About 10 million Congolese were executed

今日 侵略は違法であるとされ

or starved to death.

武装は 自衛のためか

Millions were mutilated and traumatised.

国連安保理にのみ認められる

The economic exploitation of the Congo

守られてないものの

remained the top priority

堂々と反対を表明するのは難しい

and forced labor never really ceased

また 国際司法裁判所など

completely until the end of Belgium rule

新しい試みも生まれている

in 1960.

４つに 国境が確定したこと

Which is not really that long ago.

第二次世界大戦後 国々は

So, no.

国際的な国境の受け入れと

Colonialism was much worse than

他国自主権の尊重を誓った

vulture capitalism is today

これは例外か それとも平和への道か

and it ended just two generations ago.

真実はまだわからない

Most of the conflicts

一つ実例が必要だ

that are going on right now

１世紀あたり平均

are in areas that 60 years ago

１つか２つの大戦争があり

were under foreign control.

今は先の大戦からまだ近い

But things are getting better.

次の75年 大戦争がなければ

Until 1989,

人間性は変わったと言える

victory for one side in a civil war

戦争はなくなるのかも

was common

確かに 紛争はまだあるが

while nowadays victories are much rarer.

全体的には良くなった

At the same time,

平和を訴えれば もっと良くなれる

negotiated endings have jumped from 10%

Subtitles by the Amara.org community

to almost 40%.

What about the rest of the world?

Why have nation states

stopped attacking each other?

There are 4 major reasons:

One.

Democratisation.

The steady development

from autocracy to democracy.

Democracies hardly ever fight each other.

Of all the state against state wars

fought since 1900, only a minority

were fought between democracies.

Two.

Globalisation.

War is just not as effective at achieving

economic goals as it used to be.

Today it's almost always cheaper

to buy resources on the global market

than to cease them by force.

People from other nations are

more valuable to us alive than dead.

Which, overall, is a pretty new concept.

Three.

War is so 20th century.

Until World War I, warfare was seen as an

inevitable part of the human experience

and as a valuable tool which you could use

to achieve goals when diplomacy

hit a brick wall.

Today we have rules that declare acts of

aggression illegal and stipulate that

armed forces is only justified in

self-defence or with the authority of the

UN Security Council.

These rules are still broken but today

it's harder to do so without sparking

oppositions and disapproval.

Also, we have an international court for

war crimes in The Hague.

And that's a very recent innovation.

Four.

Borders are mostly fixed now.

After World War II,

territorial wars generally stopped

when most countries pledged to accept

international borders

and respect other nations autonomy.

But is all of this just an anomaly

or are we on the road to lasting peace?

Truth is

we don't know yet.

We need a big enough sample to rule out

the historical average, which is about

one or two big wars per century.

We just haven't had enough time since

World War II to rule out the possibility

that war is not going away.

If we don't have one major war

in the next 75 years,

we can be really confident

that humanity is changing.

So you see, war might be over.

Yes there are nasty conflicts

going on in many places but overall,

things are getting better.

And we can make them even better

by speaking up for peace and democracy.

Subtitles by the Amara.org community