of the state of New Jersey.

2007年に 私はニュージャージー州の

Before that, I'd been a criminal prosecutor,

州司法長官になりました

first in the Manhattan district attorney's office,

それまではマンハッタン地区の

and then at the United States Department of Justice.

地区検察局や

But when I became the attorney general,

司法省で検察官をしていました

two things happened that changed the way I see criminal justice.

州司法長官になって

The first is that I asked what I thought

刑事裁判の見方が変わる ２つの出来事がありました

were really basic questions.

１つ目は根本的な疑問を

I wanted to understand who we were arresting,

抱くようになったことです

who we were charging,

自分達が どんな人間を

and who we were putting in our nation's jails

逮捕し 告訴して

and prisons.

刑務所や拘置所に 送っているのだろうか？

I also wanted to understand

刑務所や拘置所に 送っているのだろうか？

if we were making decisions

また 社会が もっと安全になるような

in a way that made us safer.

また 社会が もっと安全になるような

And I couldn't get this information out.

判決を下しているのだろうか？

It turned out that most big criminal justice agencies

でも そういう情報は 手に入りませんでした

like my own

ニュージャージー州を含む 大規模な刑事司法機関では

didn't track the things that matter.

肝心な点を追跡調査して いなかったのです

So after about a month of being incredibly frustrated,

肝心な点を追跡調査して いなかったのです

I walked down into a conference room

不満を募らせながら １か月待ち

that was filled with detectives

刑事が居並ぶ会議室に

and stacks and stacks of case files,

乗り込みました

and the detectives were sitting there

事件ファイルが 山積みになっていて

with yellow legal pads taking notes.

皆 黄色のレポート用紙に

They were trying to get the information

メモを取っていました

I was looking for

必要な情報を 手に入れるために

by going through case by case

必要な情報を 手に入れるために

for the past five years.

過去５年間の事件を

And as you can imagine,

全てチェックさせたのです

when we finally got the results, they weren't good.

すると 皆さんの想像通り —

It turned out that we were doing

ひどい状況が明らかになりました

a lot of low-level drug cases

調査によると扱った事件の多くが

on the streets just around the corner

トレントンにある自分達の職場の

from our office in Trenton.

周辺で発生した ―

The second thing that happened

比較的軽い 麻薬犯罪だったのです

is that I spent the day in the Camden, New Jersey police department.

２つ目の出来事とは

Now, at that time, Camden, New Jersey,

ニュージャージー州 カムデン警察署での経験です

was the most dangerous city in America.

当時カムデンは

I ran the Camden Police Department because of that.

アメリカで最も危険な街でした

I spent the day in the police department,

だから私がカムデン署を 指揮することになったのです

and I was taken into a room with senior police officials,

私はその日 署を訪れ

all of whom were working hard

カムデンの犯罪を減らそうと

and trying very hard to reduce crime in Camden.

全力を尽くしている —

And what I saw in that room,

警察幹部の部屋に通されました

as we talked about how to reduce crime,

私達が犯罪撲滅について

were a series of officers with a lot of little yellow sticky notes.

話し合っている時 目にしたのは

And they would take a yellow sticky and they would write something on it

黄色い付箋を 大量に持った警官達でした

and they would put it up on a board.

皆 付箋にメモを書いて ボードに貼り

And one of them said, "We had a robbery two weeks ago.

次々と報告していきます

We have no suspects."

「２週間前 強盗事件発生 —

And another said, "We had a shooting in this neighborhood last week. We have no suspects."

容疑者情報なし」

We weren't using data-driven policing.

「先週この付近で銃撃事件発生 容疑者情報なし」・・・

We were essentially trying to fight crime

捜査にデータを 活用していなかったのです

with yellow Post-it notes.

黄色の付箋だけを頼りに

Now, both of these things made me realize

犯罪に闘いを 挑むようなものです

fundamentally that we were failing.

この２つの出来事がきっかけで

We didn't even know who was in our criminal justice system,

根本的な失敗に 気づいたのです

we didn't have any data about the things that mattered,

私達は どんな人間が 裁判を受けているか知らず

and we didn't share data or use analytics

必要なデータがない上に 共有もしていない・・・

or tools to help us make better decisions

適切な判断を下したり 犯罪を減らすための

and to reduce crime.

データ分析手法やツールさえ 使っていませんでした

And for the first time, I started to think

データ分析手法やツールさえ 使っていませんでした

about how we made decisions.

私は 初めて判決に至る過程を

When I was an assistant D.A.,

検討し始めました

and when I was a federal prosecutor,

地方検事補 時代も

I looked at the cases in front of me,

連邦検事だった時も

and I generally made decisions based on my instinct

私は目の前の事件に集中し

and my experience.

勘と経験だけを頼りに

When I became attorney general,

判決を下してきました

I could look at the system as a whole,

州司法長官になって

and what surprised me is that I found

制度全体が見えるようになると

that that was exactly how we were doing it

驚くべき発見がありました

across the entire system --

司法制度における どの部門でも

in police departments, in prosecutors's offices,

勘と経験だけで 判断していたのです

in courts and in jails.

警察署でも検察局でも

And what I learned very quickly

裁判所でも刑務所でも同じでした

is that we weren't doing a good job.

上手くいっていないのは

So I wanted to do things differently.

明白だったので 別の方法が

I wanted to introduce data and analytics

必要だと感じました

and rigorous statistical analysis

データや分析法や

into our work.

厳密な統計解析の導入が

In short, I wanted to moneyball criminal justice.

必要だと思ったのです

Now, moneyball, as many of you know,

要は刑事司法制度界の 「マネーボール」です

is what the Oakland A's did,

ご存じの通り マネーボールとは

where they used smart data and statistics

オークランド・A's が

to figure out how to pick players

勝利に貢献できる選手を 獲得するために

that would help them win games,

データと統計を 駆使した手法のことです

and they went from a system that was based on baseball scouts

データと統計を 駆使した手法のことです

who used to go out and watch players

かつてはスカウトが 実際に選手を見て

and use their instinct and experience,

勘と経験を頼りに

the scouts' instincts and experience,

勘と経験を頼りに

to pick players, from one to use

選手を獲得していましたが

smart data and rigorous statistical analysis

今ではデータと 厳密な統計分析によって

to figure out how to pick players that would help them win games.

今ではデータと 厳密な統計分析によって

It worked for the Oakland A's,

勝利に貢献できる選手を 選びだしています

and it worked in the state of New Jersey.

A's で成功した この手法は

We took Camden off the top of the list

ニュージャージーでも成功しました

as the most dangerous city in America.

カムデンは全米で最も危険な街という

We reduced murders there by 41 percent,

汚名を返上しました

which actually means 37 lives were saved.

殺人事件は41%減少しました

And we reduced all crime in the city by 26 percent.

つまり37人の命が 救われたのです

We also changed the way we did criminal prosecutions.

犯罪の総数は26%減少しました

So we went from doing low-level drug crimes

また刑事訴追の方法も 改めました

that were outside our building

私達の身の回りで起こる ―

to doing cases of statewide importance,

比較的軽い麻薬犯罪よりも

on things like reducing violence with the most violent offenders,

州全体に関わる事件 例えば

prosecuting street gangs,

重大な暴力犯罪の抑止や

gun and drug trafficking, and political corruption.

ストリートギャングの摘発 —

And all of this matters greatly,

銃と麻薬の取引や 政治汚職の摘発に力を入れました

because public safety to me

どれも非常に重要です

is the most important function of government.

なぜなら 治安こそが

If we're not safe, we can't be educated,

政府の最も重要な 仕事だと考えるからです

we can't be healthy,

安全でなければ 教育も健康も保障できません

we can't do any of the other things we want to do in our lives.

安全でなければ 教育も健康も保障できません

And we live in a country today

自分のやりたいことが 不可能になるのです

where we face serious criminal justice problems.

現在この国は

We have 12 million arrests every single year.

刑事司法制度上の 深刻な問題を抱えています

The vast majority of those arrests

毎年1,200万人が逮捕されますが

are for low-level crimes, like misdemeanors,

そのほとんどは

70 to 80 percent.

重要度の低い軽犯罪で

Less than five percent of all arrests

70〜80%を占めます

are for violent crime.

凶悪犯罪は 逮捕総数の

Yet we spend 75 billion,

わずか５%未満です

that's b for billion,

それでも州や地方で

dollars a year on state and local corrections costs.

それでも州や地方で

Right now, today, we have 2.3 million people

犯罪者の更正にかかるコストは 750億ドルにのぼります

in our jails and prisons.

現在 230万人が拘置所や刑務所に

And we face unbelievable public safety challenges

収監されています

because we have a situation

これは治安上 極めて深刻な状況です

in which two thirds of the people in our jails

というのも拘置所に

are there waiting for trial.

収容されている人間の ３分の２は

They haven't yet been convicted of a crime.

裁判の開始を 待っているだけなのです

They're just waiting for their day in court.

彼らは有罪判決を 受けたわけではなく

And 67 percent of people come back.

ただ出廷の時を待っています

Our recidivism rate is amongst the highest in the world.

さらに67%が再犯を重ねます

Almost seven in 10 people who are released

州の再犯率は 世界的に見ても最悪です

from prison will be rearrested

刑務所から10人釈放されても

in a constant cycle of crime and incarceration.

７人程度が再逮捕され

So when I started my job at the Arnold Foundation,

犯罪と監獄生活を 繰り返しています

I came back to looking at a lot of these questions,

私がアーノルド財団で 働きはじめた時 —

and I came back to thinking about how

これまでの問題を振り返りました

we had used data and analytics to transform

データと分析法を どう活用して

the way we did criminal justice in New Jersey.

ニュージャージー州の刑事司法制度を

And when I look at the criminal justice system

改革したか振り返ったのです

in the United States today,

現在のアメリカの

I feel the exact same way that I did

刑事司法制度には

about the state of New Jersey when I started there,

ニュージャージー州と

which is that we absolutely have to do better,

同じ課題があると思います

and I know that we can do better.

つまり まだまだ 改善の余地はあるし

So I decided to focus

改善できるはずです

on using data and analytics

そこで 私が集中して 取り組むことにしたのは

to help make the most critical decision

そこで 私が集中して 取り組むことにしたのは

in public safety,

治安上 最も重要な判断で

and that decision is the determination

データ分析を使うことです

of whether, when someone has been arrested,

そのような判断の一つは

whether they pose a risk to public safety

誰かを逮捕した時に

and should be detained,

治安上のリスクが高いと 考えて勾留するか

or whether they don't pose a risk to public safety

治安上のリスクが高いと 考えて勾留するか

and should be released.

リスクは低いと考えて 釈放するかを

Everything that happens in criminal cases

決めるような場合です

comes out of this one decision.

この判断こそが

It impacts everything.

刑事裁判の出発点で

It impacts sentencing.

全てに影響を及ぼします

It impacts whether someone gets drug treatment.

量刑の判断にも

It impacts crime and violence.

薬物治療の必要性にも

And when I talk to judges around the United States,

暴力や犯罪にも影響を及ぼします

which I do all the time now,

最近 全国の判事から

they all say the same thing,

話を聞く機会が多いのですが

which is that we put dangerous people in jail,

全員が こう言います

and we let non-dangerous, nonviolent people out.

「自分達は 危険な人間を 刑務所に送り

They mean it and they believe it.

そうではない人間は 釈放している」

But when you start to look at the data,

全員がそう確信しています

which, by the way, the judges don't have,

でも判事達は

when we start to look at the data,

データを持っていません

what we find time and time again,

実際にデータを検討すると

is that this isn't the case.

それに当てはまらないケースが

We find low-risk offenders,

しばしば見つかるのです

which makes up 50 percent of our entire criminal justice population,

刑事裁判を受けた者の

we find that they're in jail.

50%を占める 危険度の低い犯罪者が

Take Leslie Chew, who was a Texas man

刑務所に入っています

who stole four blankets on a cold winter night.

例えばテキサス出身の レズリー・チューは

He was arrested, and he was kept in jail

寒い冬の夜に 毛布を４枚盗んで

on 3,500 dollars bail,

逮捕されましたが

an amount that he could not afford to pay.

3,500ドルの保釈金を

And he stayed in jail for eight months

払う事ができず 拘置所に入りました

until his case came up for trial,

それから裁判が始まるまで

at a cost to taxpayers of more than 9,000 dollars.

８か月も勾留されたのです

And at the other end of the spectrum,

納税者の負担額は 9,000ドル以上になります

we're doing an equally terrible job.

逆の場合でも

The people who we find

状況は深刻です

are the highest-risk offenders,

極めて危険性が 高いと判断され

the people who we think have the highest likelihood

極めて危険性が 高いと判断され

of committing a new crime if they're released,

釈放された場合 再犯の可能性が

we see nationally that 50 percent of those people

非常に高い犯罪者の内 ―

are being released.

実に50%が 釈放されています

The reason for this is the way we make decisions.

実に50%が 釈放されています

Judges have the best intentions

こうなった原因は 判断の下し方にあります

when they make these decisions about risk,

判事はリスクの見極めに

but they're making them subjectively.

最善を尽くしていますが

They're like the baseball scouts 20 years ago

判断が主観的なのです

who were using their instinct and their experience

20年前 野球のスカウト達が

to try to decide what risk someone poses.

勘と経験だけを頼りに

They're being subjective,

リスクを評価したのと 同じことをしているのです

and we know what happens with subjective decision making,

判事達は主観で判断しています

which is that we are often wrong.

ただ主観的な判断は

What we need in this space

しばしば誤りにつながります

are strong data and analytics.

この分野に必要なのは

What I decided to look for

確かなデータと分析法なのです

was a strong data and analytic risk assessment tool,

私が求めていたものは

something that would let judges actually understand

確固たるデータと 分析的なリスク評価ツール —

with a scientific and objective way

すなわち 判事の前にいる人間が

what the risk was that was posed

どんな危険性を持つかを

by someone in front of them.

科学的 客観的に

I looked all over the country,

捉えるためのツールでした

and I found that between five and 10 percent

全国的に見ると

of all U.S. jurisdictions

何らかのリスク評価ツールを

actually use any type of risk assessment tool,

利用しているのは

and when I looked at these tools,

全体の わずか５〜10%でした

I quickly realized why.

実際のツールを見ていくと

They were unbelievably expensive to administer,

原因はすぐにわかりました

they were time-consuming,

どれも管理コストが恐ろしく高く

they were limited to the local jurisdiction

時間もかかり

in which they'd been created.

地元でしか使えない —

So basically, they couldn't be scaled

ツールばかりだったのです

or transferred to other places.

そのため 基本的に

So I went out and built a phenomenal team

対象エリアを広げたり 転用はできませんでした

of data scientists and researchers

だから私はデータ科学者や

and statisticians

研究者や統計学者からなる

to build a universal risk assessment tool,

優秀なチームを編成し

so that every single judge in the United States of America

どこでも使える リスク評価ツールを製作しました

can have an objective, scientific measure of risk.

目指したのは全米の判事全員が

In the tool that we've built,

客観的かつ科学的な リスク評価ができることです

what we did was we collected 1.5 million cases

このツールを使って

from all around the United States,

私達は150万件の 事例を集めました

from cities, from counties,

アメリカ全土 つまり

from every single state in the country,

市や郡の裁判所 ―

the federal districts.

すべての州裁判所と

And with those 1.5 million cases,

連邦地裁からです

which is the largest data set on pretrial

そして 公判前の 事例データとしては

in the United States today,

全米で最大規模となる —

we were able to basically find that there were

この150万例から

900-plus risk factors that we could look at

900以上のリスク要因を見つけ

to try to figure out what mattered most.

どの要素が 最も重要なのかを

And we found that there were nine specific things

突き止めようとしました

that mattered all across the country

その結果 全国的に共通し

and that were the most highly predictive of risk.