Name: The big shrink
Uploaded: 2026-02-18T17:20:39.000Z
Duration: 30 min 9 s
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Food is more than just that meal on your plate.

It's a fundamental pillar of global economics, driving economic output and consumer spending.

It's the fuel, literally, of human productivity and health, and

its delicious ingredients are the lifeblood of global trade and big business.

So what happens when people eat less of it?

You see, if weight loss drugs are transforming people's lives, then they've the potential to transform the economy too.

Early evidence suggests that obesity drugs or GLP1s, are already driving changes in consumer behaviour, which are starting to spill over into markets for food and fashion.

And with the introduction this year of cheaper pill versions of the jobs, that spillover effect is set to widen, potentially affecting the global economy in all sorts of ways, from labour market participation rates to government finances.

We don't yet know all the ways this is going to pan out.

It's a megatrend that we want to unpack on this week's show, because that's what we do on Reuters Econ World.

Every week we go deep on an economic principle or idea driving the biggest news around the world.

We've tackled weight loss drugs and the healthcare revolution they've triggered on other podcasts at Reuters, so on Reuters World News, our sister.

But on this show, we want to, I suppose you could say, get to the bottom line and look at their impact on the global economy, because it's a classic example of a spillover, so a big change or disruption in one market affecting lots of other markets.

And to do that, I'm going to talk to two friends of the pod, two friends of mine.

That will be David Gaffin, our America's Business editor, and

Michelle Gershberg, our Global Healthcare editor, both of whom are based in New York.

So tell us how much of your of your work life now is devoted to weight loss drugs, Michelle?

I mean, I have to say it is keeping a number of reporters on our global team bus very busy, particularly reporters who are covering the two big drug makers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

I mean, we have reporters in India and China who are also covering the introduction of these weight loss drugs around the world.

And there are many, many implications that I'm sure we'll get into today.

It's certainly taking up a lot more of our time and that's because it's starting to cross into other Industries where they're starting to see the effect on their earnings, on their marketing, on their sales, certainly in the food category and in restaurants.

And then from there, it seems to be spreading a bit more.

There's a lot of thinking about it in the likes of apparel.

There's some people who are talking about it as it regards to air travel.

So it is definitely having a real effect across the entire business world, and

Michelle, can you put obesity into a kind of economic context for us?

So how widespread is it and why does it matter for the global economy?

I mean, I'm talking about obesity as a disease.

Well, the numbers have been going up for decades.

In the United States, about 100 million adults are considered obese.

And another, almost 100 million million would be considered overweight.

And as we know, there's a lot of, you know, there are people who are even overweight who would stand to benefit from losing additional pounds from a health perspective.

In terms of, like, heart disease risk and diabetes.

That's that number globally, including children.

The World Health Organization estimates that it's over a billion people.

It started, you know, it picked up first in the United States and other wealthy economies, but

Other countries are catching up very fast.

And a lot of it has to do with the very same factors.

Lifestyle factors, what kinds of foods are available, you know, processed foods, foods high in sugar, salt, fat content, more sedentary lifestyles.

Again, the iPhone and similar smartphones are everywhere.

You know, we are, you know, people are moving around less, their jobs are keeping them tethered online more.

And, you know, as a general rule, they get less activity.

So all of these factors have contributed to a true explosion in obesity worldwide.

You know, I was looking for, for some estimates for you.

In the United States, on average, an adult who is obese is spending $2,000 more a year on related health costs.

And in terms of the country, like, countrywide, there are estimates that it's about $260 billion in additional costs related to just obesity.

And that would be things like hospital visits because people develop other health conditions.

Doctor visits, potentially hospitalizations, the cost of medications for diabetes, for heart disease, to manage all of the associated health problems that are tied to obesity.

And there's also a productivity hit, isn't there, David, from people ringing in sick because they've got maybe obesity related health conditions.

Goldman Sachs economists estimated not long ago that the proliferation of GLP1 drugs could cause about a 0.4% increase in GDP overall.

And that's not a result of spending that's being moved around.

For instance, you spend less on food and you spend more on travel.

But the idea that people would be more productive because they would be less likely to call in sick from work because they would lead lifestyles that would be healthier and that would allow them to be more productive, to do more, to have more time for leisure and to do more in the way of leisure activities.

And overall, just a pickup in economic activity that would be expected from it.

Now, it's unclear how much that's come to pass as of yet.

And I'm sure we'll see more of that in the coming months and years as we get the understanding of the ramifications of it and as we see more Widespread usage of GLP1 drugs by people throughout all economic strata.

I mean, has there been any research to show the impact on productivity levels from obesity?

I mean, are there stats out there to show, you know, the drag it has at this moment in time?

So, you know, what we know is about 12% of Americans are believed to have tried a GLP1.

That doesn't mean they're all taking a GLP1.

Many of them stop taking it either because it's too expensive for them or the side effects are just too onerous and right.

Side effects can also make people call in sick.

I don't know that that is settled so much.

There is a storyline though, I want to pick up.

There's a storyline in which people who are losing weight and this is a phenomenon that we and others have reported on, they are, you know, they are able to exercise more.

In fact, they're supposed to exercise so they don't lose muscle mass.

But they feel better as pounds come off, they feel lighter, more able to engage in activity, perhaps more confident at work in their relationships.

You know, they feel better about themselves.

And whether that sort of creates kind of a glow, if you will, that improves productivity, I think that's what's underlying the idea.

Somebody has put a hard number on and said already we're seeing it.

What we have seen, what I am aware of are numbers that show that the obesity rate in the United States, which was just going up and up and up and up.