Name: テスラは終わった - テスラ株は溶けていく (It’s Over For Tesla - Tesla Stock is Melting Down)
Uploaded: 2025-08-14T18:15:38.000Z
Duration: 20 min 23 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

to 不定詞

Things are about to get a lot worse for Tesla.

テスラにとって事態はさらに悪化しそうだ。

Over the last 6 months, the price of Tesla's stock has dropped by about 50 percent, but it seems like that's just the beginning.

この半年でテスラの株価は約50％下落したが、それはまだ序章に過ぎないようだ。

現在進行形

In fact, the entire empire of Elon Musk is crumbling right now, and if Tesla crashes, that is going to wipe out his entire net worth because most of his net worth comes from his stake in Tesla.

実際、イーロン・マスクの帝国全体が今まさに崩壊しつつあり、もしテスラがクラッシュすれば、彼の純資産の大半はテスラへの出資によるものであるため、彼の純資産全体が一掃されることになる。

When the people who sit on the board of directors of Tesla sell 100 million dollars worth of Tesla stock, tells you a lot about the state of the company.

テスラの取締役に座っている人々が1億ドル相当のテスラ株を売るということは、会社の状態について多くを物語っている。

They did not sell those stocks 6 months ago when Tesla was at its peak, they sold them when Tesla was already down by around 50 percent.

彼らはテスラがピークにあった6ヶ月前にその株を売ったのではなく、テスラがすでに50％ほど下落していたときに売ったのだ。

Even his brother, Kimbal Musk sold around 27 million dollars worth of Tesla stock over the last 6 months.

弟のキンバル・マスクでさえ、過去6ヶ月間に約2700万ドル相当のテスラ株を売却している。

So let's try to figure out what exactly is happening with Tesla, how low Tesla can possibly go, and is there a chance for Tesla to survive this crisis and start growing again because Tesla still remains one of the most valuable companies in the world.

では、テスラに一体何が起きているのか、テスラはどこまで下がる可能性があるのか、テスラがこの危機を乗り切って再び成長し始めるチャンスはあるのか、テスラは依然として世界で最も価値のある企業のひとつなのだから。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it.

準備ができたら、このビデオに親指を立てて、さっそく飛び込んでみよう。

Just when we thought that it can get worse for Tesla, BYD came out, which is a Chinese car company and beat Tesla at sales.

テスラにとってこれ以上悪いことはないだろうと思っていた矢先、中国の自動車会社であるBYDが登場し、販売台数でテスラを打ち負かした。

Tesla's sales for the last year were at around 100 billion dollars, which is pretty much a lot of money, with a net income of around 7 billion dollars, but BYD surpassed that with 107 billion dollars worth of sales.

テスラの昨年度の売上高は約1000億ドルで、純利益は約70億ドルとかなりの額だが、BYDはそれを上回る1070億ドル相当の売上高を上げた。

Of course, we have the revenue over here in Chinese Yuan, but if you convert that based on the current exchange, it's gonna be around 107 billion dollars, with a net income of 5.5 billion dollars.

もちろん、こちらでは中国元で売上を計上していますが、現在の為替レートで換算すると、約1070億ドル、純利益は55億ドルになります。

So if you have a car company in China, where the market is much smaller than the United States, and they beat Tesla there, what do you think they can do to Tesla if the tariffs will be lifted and Chinese electric cars will be sold in the United States, they will wipe out Tesla in an instant.

つまり、米国よりもはるかに市場規模が小さい中国に自動車会社があり、そこでテスラを打ち負かしたとして、関税が撤廃され、中国の電気自動車が米国で販売されるようになれば、テスラを一瞬で一掃できると思いますか？

And that is probably the greatest fear that Tesla ever has, because they cannot possibly compete with a company like BYD.

BYDのような企業には到底太刀打ちできないからだ。

Especially if you open up and take a look at their prices, you quickly realize that BYD cars are a lot cheaper than Tesla cars, even though Tesla slashed prices slightly over the last couple of months, they still cannot possibly compete in price when it comes to BYD.

テスラがここ数カ月で若干価格を引き下げたとはいえ、BYDの価格には到底太刀打ちできない。

In fact, if you look at the numbers, BYD has surpassed Tesla in the number of cars that they sell back in 2023, so this is not something new, this was something like investors actually expected from Tesla over the last couple of years.

実際、数字を見れば、BYDは2023年に販売台数でテスラを上回っている。つまり、これは目新しいことではなく、投資家がここ数年テスラに期待していたようなことなのだ。

Because even though that if you go back like 10 years ago, the difference was absolutely massive, where Tesla was this cool electrical car company that dominated the entire world, they started opening gigafactories everywhere, not just in the US, in Europe, China.

というのも、10年前にさかのぼれば、テスラはクールな電気自動車会社として全世界を席巻していたにもかかわらず、アメリカだけでなく、ヨーロッパ、中国など、あらゆる場所にギガファクトリーを開設し始めたからだ。

In fact, for some time, they dominated the entire Chinese market, it's literally just the last couple of years that Chinese manufacturers literally jumped over, and the difference right now is so huge that Tesla has no chance to compete with BYD.

実際、しばらくの間、BYDは中国市場全体を支配していた。中国メーカーが文字通り飛び越えたのはここ2、3年のことで、今のところその差は非常に大きく、テスラがBYDに対抗するチャンスはない。

BYD last year sold 3.5 million cars in China, and Tesla sold a little over half a million cars, and right now they are not the second car company or the EV company in China, they are literally the third EV company, and chances that Tesla is going to go from half a million cars to 3.5 million cars in the next couple of years is just impossible.

BYDは昨年、中国で350万台の自動車を販売し、テスラは50万台強を販売した。現在、彼らは中国で2番目の自動車会社でもEV会社でもなく、文字通り3番目のEV会社であり、テスラが今後2、3年で50万台から350万台になる可能性は不可能に近い。

If they do that, they might be able to do that worldwide in the next 5 to 10 years, but certainly not in the next 2 years, but BYD is not simply going to sit down there and watch how Tesla is catching up, BYD will continue to grow and maybe their sales are going to double to 6 and 7 million cars, and that raises a lot of questions for investors.

しかし、BYDはテスラの追い上げをただ座って見ているつもりはない。BYDは成長を続け、もしかしたら販売台数は2倍の600万台、700万台になるかもしれない。

So if we are going to give the pretty similar valuation to Tesla as we are giving to BYD, then it's certainly overvalued.

テスラにBYDと同じような評価を下すとすれば、確かに割高だ。

The market cap of BYD is around a trillion dollars, so if you convert that to the US dollars, that's around 160 billion dollars, but the market cap of Tesla which has less sales than BYD is around 825 billion dollars, and that is after a 50% drop over the last 60 months, so I did speak it was used to worth like 1.2 or 1.3 trillion dollars, probably even a bit more than that.

BYDの時価総額は約1兆ドルで、これを米ドルに換算すると約1600億ドルですが、BYDより売上高の少ないテスラの時価総額は約8250億ドルで、この60カ月で50％下落した後です。

So if we are going to give Tesla the exact same valuation as we are giving BYD, which is at a PE ratio of 27, the price of Tesla shares right now should be 56 dollars per share and not 263 dollars, and the market cap should be 175 billion dollars.

つまり、BYDのPEレシオ27とまったく同じ評価をテスラにも与えるのであれば、テスラの株価は263ドルではなく56ドルになり、時価総額は1750億ドルになるはずだ。

If you are actually looking at Tesla purely from the factual numbers and you are literally taking a look at the sales and you are taking a look at the revenue, you clearly can see that either BYD should worth at least around a trillion dollars just as much as Tesla, or Tesla should actually be devalued to around 160 billion dollars.

テスラを純粋に事実上の数字から見て、文字通り売上高を見て、収益を見ているのであれば、BYDの価値は少なくともテスラと同じ1兆ドル程度になるはずであるか、テスラは実際には1,600億ドル程度に切り下げられるかのどちらかであることは明らかである。

Imagine you have such an overvalued stock and then you have such a crisis that Tesla is running right now, where they are burning Tesla cars, where Tesla sales are going down everywhere, where there are tariff wars that are being waged with the United States, with That is going to make the cost of producing Tesla much more expensive, that is driving the Tesla sales way down.

テスラ車が燃やされ、テスラの売上がいたるところで減少し、米国との間で関税戦争が繰り広げられ、テスラの生産コストがはるかに高くなり、テスラの売上が大幅に減少している。

In the European Union, Tesla sales are already down by around 45% in the last couple of months since Elon Musk started allying himself with Trump.

欧州連合（EU）では、イーロン・マスクがトランプと手を組み始めて以来、テスラの売上はここ数カ月ですでに約45％減少している。

Because Trump is literally just waging wars with the European Union, and since Tesla is an American car company, and Elon Musk is the closest ally of President Trump, guess who is suffering out of this trade war that Trump has started?

テスラはアメリカの自動車会社であり、イーロン・マスクはトランプ大統領の最側近である。トランプ大統領が始めたこの貿易戦争で誰が被害を受けると思う？

その通り、イーロン・マスクと彼のテスラのおもちゃだ。

The second largest market after the United States for Tesla is obviously China, and sales in China are also down by around 50 percent, which means that Tesla is on a trajectory to go down.

テスラにとって米国に次ぐ市場は明らかに中国であり、中国での販売も約50％減少しており、テスラは下降線をたどっていることになる。

Why are we overpaying so much for a stock where its sales are going dramatically down.

売上が激減している銘柄に、なぜ私たちはこれほど高い金額を支払っているのか。

I know all of this talk about that Tesla is not just a car company, obviously it's doing AI with its self-driving technology, it's trying to build robots, it's trying to create software, it's literally trying to be everybody.

テスラは単なる自動車会社ではなく、自動運転技術でAIを開発し、ロボットを作り、ソフトウェアを作ろうとしている。

But if you look at the core principles or the core products that Tesla is making, it's a car company, so if you give it that kind of a valuation where you have a car company whose sales are plummeting dramatically by around 50%, then think about the real valuation of Tesla.

しかし、テスラが作っている核となる理念や核となる製品を見れば、テスラは自動車会社であり、売上高が50％前後も激減している自動車会社をそのような評価にするのであれば、テスラの本当の評価について考えてみてください。

Tesla cannot possibly sell their cars everywhere, it's either China, it's the United States or the European Union.

テスラは、中国か、米国か、欧州連合（EU）か、どこにでも車を売ることはできない。

You can't sell Teslas in Africa or most of the Asian countries, and that's simply because Tesla cars are expensive.

アフリカやアジアのほとんどの国ではテスラを売ることはできない。

What are you going to buy, a BYD car or a Tesla car, a BYD car that costs 15K or a 40K Tesla.

BYD車かテスラ車か、1万5千円のBYD車か4万円のテスラか。

So if you have some kind of an Asian country that has pretty similar trade deals with China and the United States, which of them are you going to buy, a 40K Tesla or a 15K BYD car.

つまり、中国やアメリカとかなり似たような貿易取引をしているアジアの国があったとして、4万ドルのテスラと1万5千ドルのBYD車、どちらを買うつもりなのか、ということだ。

Yes, there are some people who can afford that, but not the vast majority of people.

たしかに、そのような余裕のある人たちもいるが、大多数の人たちではない。

So when you are losing your two largest markets in the world, you are literally headed into a real bankruptcy.

つまり、世界最大の市場を2つも失うということは、文字通り本当の意味での破産に向かうということだ。

And if you look at those two markets, where Tesla has the largest market share and the largest chance to actually dominate those markets, then there are actual competitors who can easily replace Tesla.

そして、テスラが最大の市場シェアを持ち、それらの市場を実際に支配する最大のチャンスがあるこの2つの市場を見れば、テスラに簡単に取って代わることができる競合他社が実際に存在することになる。

The European Union, yes, Tesla is still leading, but their sales are plummeting, and probably by the end of this year, Tesla is no longer going to lead the European market.

欧州連合（EU）では、そう、テスラがまだリードしているが、その売上は急落しており、おそらく今年末にはテスラが欧州市場をリードすることはないだろう。

But after that, we have BMW, whose sales are very close to Tesla, and they will pretty much by the end of the year are going to catch up.

しかし、その後にはBMWがあり、その販売台数はテスラに非常に接近している。

Especially when there is this trade war is happening and Trump imposed like a 25% tariff on all cars that are coming to the United States, and the European Union is going to retaliate pretty much with the exact same tariffs, I haven't seen the retaliation yet, but it's going to be pretty much close to that.

特にこの貿易戦争が起こっているときに、トランプ大統領は米国に輸入されるすべての自動車に25％の関税を課し、欧州連合（EU）もまったく同じ関税で報復しようとしている。

You will easily find out by the end of the year, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, or Volkswagen overtaking Tesla.

年末までには、BMW、メルセデス、ボルボ、フォルクスワーゲンがテスラを追い抜くことになるだろう。

And also because there is so much negative sentiment around Tesla, people in the European Union will stop buying Teslas to show their signs of disagreement with the United States and in Tesla with particular because they don't simply like Elon Musk.

また、テスラには否定的な感情が多いため、欧州連合（EU）の人々は、イーロン・マスクが単純に好きではないことを理由に、米国や特にテスラに対する不服のサインを示すためにテスラを買うのを止めるだろう。

The same story repeats with China, but it's a lot worse because BYD have already overtaken, and right now they have superchargers that charge their cars 4 times faster than Tesla.

中国でも同じことが繰り返されているが、BYDはすでに追い抜き、現在ではテスラより4倍速く充電できるスーパーチャージャーを持っている。

Why are you going to buy a Tesla when you can simply charge your BYD 4 times much faster, you don't have to waste so much time actually charging your car.

BYDを4倍速く充電できるのに、なぜテスラを買おうとするのか。

And a combination of these factors are leading investors to think that or believe, if Tesla sales are going to keep plummeting, and by the end of the year, Tesla sales are not going to be like 97 billion dollars, but maybe 70 billion dollars or 60 billion dollars, and the way that investors act, they are not acting on the fact that they believe is happening today, they act believing what is going to happen in the foreseeable future.

これらの要因が重なり、投資家たちは、もしテスラの売上がこのまま急落し続け、年末までにテスラの売上が970億ドルどころか700億ドルか600億ドルになるかもしれない、と考えたり、信じたりしている。投資家たちの行動様式は、現在起こっていると信じて行動しているのではなく、予見可能な将来に起こることを信じて行動しているのだ。

So all these factors are pushing people to actually sell their stocks, believing that Elon Musk's empire is going to plummet, it's going to go down, so maybe I should exit my position before the situation gets a lot worse.

イーロン・マスクの帝国は急落し、崩壊するだろうから、状況がもっと悪化する前にポジションを手放すべきだろう。

Especially when you know that the stock is clearly overvalued, there is literally no question about it, the stock is purely hanging on the fact that Tesla one day is going to be super profitable based on the promises that Elon Musk has made, and that could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy that could lead more investors to sell their stocks just like in the last couple of months where the people who are on the board of Tesla are selling their stocks.

特に、株価が明らかに割高であることを知っている場合、それについて文字通り疑問の余地はない。株価は、イーロン・マスクが行った約束に基づき、テスラがいつか超高収益を上げるという事実に純粋にぶら下がっているのだ。

Elon Musk literally himself urged Tesla employees not to sell their stocks.

イーロン・マスクは文字通り、テスラの従業員に株を売らないよう促した。

All of this sounds like Tesla is going to collapse in the foreseeable future, however if you dig into the numbers, it's not literally as bad as it seems for Tesla, and if you actually look at the real numbers and the real prospects, Tesla still has a chance to actually grow way faster than BYD, at least if we are talking about the sales and revenue and actual profit that a company can make.

しかし、数字を掘り下げてみれば、テスラにとって文字通り悪い状況ではなく、実際の数字と見通しを見れば、テスラはBYDよりもはるかに速く成長するチャンスがある。

For 2024, the total number of EV sales in the United States represented around 9 percent, so just 9 percent of all the car sales in the US were EV sales, and over half of those sales were sales done by Tesla, it was followed by all other manufacturers.

2024年、米国におけるEVの販売台数は約9％であり、米国における自動車販売台数のわずか9％がEV販売台数である。

And if you actually look, none of them actually presents a real competition for Tesla in the United States.

そして、実際に見てみると、そのどれもが、米国でテスラの本当の競争相手にはなっていない。

You have Chevrolet, you have Toyota, you have BMW.

シボレーもトヨタもBMWもある。

Now by Trump imposing tariffs, these 3 cars will lose their edge in the United States and Tesla sales are probably going to skyrocket even further.

トランプが関税を課すことで、これら3車種は米国での優位性を失い、テスラの販売はさらに急増するだろう。

Now, some people will say, oh nobody is going to buy Tesla right now, look at the situation, look how negative people are actually looking at Tesla.

今、テスラを買おうという人はいないだろう、状況を見てみろ、実際にテスラを見ている人たちがどれほど否定的か見てみろ、と言う人もいるだろう。

Especially if you look at the core idea of Tesla, Tesla emerged as the car that is fighting against climate change, that was the prospect, that was literally the idea behind it, and Tesla sales initially grew in California where people are liberal, where we have democrats controlling the state, and this is where the sales of Tesla cars have skyrocketed, but that's no longer the case because Elon Musk is aligning himself with Trump, and Trump is a republican and he is doing everything against what democrats believe, especially in California.

特にテスラの核となるアイデアを見ると、テスラは気候変動と戦う車として登場しました。それが展望であり、文字通りその背後にあるアイデアでした。テスラの売上は当初、人々がリベラルで、民主党が州を支配しているカリフォルニア州で伸びました。

But that's part of the story, because if you wanna look at where Tesla is headed to, you have to take a look at the bigger picture and you have to look at it much more strategically instead of literally looking at day to day events.

なぜなら、テスラがどこに向かっているのかを見るには、日々の出来事を文字通り見るのではなく、より大きな視野で、より戦略的に見る必要があるからだ。

If you look at the sales in China, half of the cars that are being sold in China last year were all EVs, literally, that is 5 times more than the United States, it was 9 percent in the US, it was 50 percent in China, and most of these sales were done by a company called BYD that we just talked about.

中国での販売台数を見ると、昨年中国で販売された自動車の半分がすべてEVで、文字どおり米国の5倍である。

The problem is that, in the next couple of years, lets say in the next 2 years, 100 percent of all the cars being sold in China are going to be EVs, and BYD will be able to double their sales, if they double their sales, their sales are going to be 214 billion dollars, which is literally a lot, and it is going to increase their valuation probably to something like 400 billion dollars, maybe more than that, and their income is going to be 11 billion dollars.

問題は、今後2、3年で、仮に今後2年で、中国で販売される全自動車の100％がEVになり、BYDは売上を倍増させることができるということだ。売上を倍増させれば、売上高は2140億ドルになり、文字通りの大台に乗り、評価額はおそらく4000億ドルか、それ以上に上昇し、収入は110億ドルになるだろう。

And chances of that happening is pretty high, especially when you have the Chinese government so aggressively pushing and incentivizing those companies to actually invest and build and turn the entire China into EV cars.

特に、中国政府がこれらの企業に投資し、建設し、中国全土をEV自動車に変えるよう積極的に働きかけ、インセンティブを与えている場合、その可能性はかなり高い。

Lets compare that to what is happening in the United States, and that is where you understand the completely different story.

アメリカで起きていることと比較してみよう。

If the United States is also going to be fully electric, and 100 percent of US car sales are going to be electric, just like we just assumed with China, then Tesla sales most likely are going to increase by at least 10 times.

もし米国も完全な電気自動車になり、中国と同じように米国の自動車販売の100％が電気自動車になるとすれば、テスラの売上は少なくとも10倍になる可能性が高い。

There isn't a single company that can replace Tesla, even if you hate Tesla, even if you hate Elon Musk, because there isn't a single company in the US that is positioned to build their cars so efficiently in the United States as much as its being done right now with Tesla.

たとえテスラが嫌いでも、イーロン・マスクが嫌いでも、テスラに取って代わるような企業は1社も存在しない。

And if Tesla sales are going to grow at the exact same rate, that means that they are going to 10x their sales, that will bring it to almost a trillion dollars worth of sales and a net income of 70 billion dollars.

もしテスラの売上がまったく同じペースで伸びるとすれば、売上は10倍になり、売上高はほぼ1兆ドル相当、純利益は700億ドルに達することになる。

So even though that BYD has surpassed Tesla a lot, they are much less profitable because they sell their cars at a significant loss, and secondly, they have already captured 50 percent of the entire market of China, where 50 percent of all the cars that are being sold are electric, whereas in the US, there is still a lot of room to grow, there is still a way to go from 9 percent to 100 percent.

BYDはテスラを大きく上回ったとはいえ、大幅な赤字で車を販売しているため、利益率ははるかに低い。第二に、彼らはすでに中国市場全体の50％を獲得しており、販売されている車の50％が電気自動車である。

Even by the time that the US EV sales are going to go from 9 percent to 50 percent, Tesla will sell much more and will make a much bigger profit than BYD regardless, even if all the sales are simply going to be in the US and not outside the US, even not in the US market right now in the next couple of years is much bigger than BYD can possibly imagine.

米国でのEV販売が9％から50％になる頃でも、テスラはBYDよりはるかに多く販売し、BYDよりはるかに大きな利益を上げるだろう。たとえ、すべての販売が米国内で行われ、米国外では行われないとしても、たとえ現在米国市場でなくても、今後数年間はBYDの想像をはるかに超える規模になるだろう。

I am not saying that Tesla will 100 percent capture the entire market, that might not happen, of course, there is a good chance that Tesla is going to keep plummeting, but if you look at the factual numbers, if you look at the situation in the market, if you look at the factories, you will realize that Tesla does not have competition, they control over 50 percent of the entire market.

もちろん、テスラが急落し続ける可能性は十分にある。しかし、事実の数字を見れば、市場の状況を見れば、工場を見れば、テスラには競争がなく、市場全体の50％以上を支配していることがわかるだろう。

And for those car companies to compete with Tesla, they have to spend a couple of billions of dollars to build those plants, and it's going to take them a bit longer, it's going to take them a couple of years, just like it took Tesla.

これらの自動車会社がテスラと競争するためには、工場を建設するために数十億ドルを費やさなければならない。

And also Tesla have mastered building gigafactories, something that is going to take a lot of couple of years at least for those car companies to do, they also need to raise billions of dollars to do that, especially when the dynamic of the market is changing, and the 70 billion dollars that we talked about is simply based on the situation that we have on the ground.

また、テスラはギガファクトリーの建設に成功したが、これらの自動車会社にとっては少なくとも2、3年はかかることであり、そのためには数十億ドルを調達する必要がある。

There is also a lot of potential for Tesla to make billions of dollars from robotaxis, they haven't yet started selling their robotaxis, which is going to cost 20 billion dollars, and they will make a lot of money from AI and automation.

また、テスラはロボットタクシーで何十億ドルも稼ぐ可能性がある。彼らはまだロボットタクシーの販売を開始していないが、200億ドルもする予定であり、AIと自動化で大儲けするだろう。

Tesla is also an energy company, Tesla is also an AI company, they can also sell their insurance.

テスラはエネルギー企業でもあり、テスラはAI企業でもあり、保険を売ることもできる。

There is a lot of potential for Tesla to grow, and if they actually capture 50 percent of the entire market, when the United States is going to transition entirely to electrical cars, just like China is doing right now, the potential for Tesla is much bigger than BYD can possibly imagine, or even all of the Chinese EV car companies combined.

テスラが成長する可能性は大いにある。もしテスラが市場全体の50％を占めるようになれば、今中国がそうであるように、米国も完全に電気自動車に移行することになり、テスラの可能性はBYDの想像をはるかに超え、中国のEV自動車会社すべてを合わせたものよりもはるかに大きくなる。

Even though the tariffs are hurting all car companies, the clear winner of tariffs are Tesla.

関税はすべての自動車会社に打撃を与えているが、関税の明らかな勝者はテスラである。

Because Tesla cannot sell their cars everywhere, they are either going to sell them in China where they have a real market, the European Union, and the United States.

テスラはどこでも自動車を販売できるわけではないので、実際の市場がある中国、EU、そして米国で販売することになる。

But the biggest market for Tesla or any car company or any brand in the world is going to remain the United States because this is when you have the wealthiest consumer.

しかし、テスラや他の自動車会社、あるいはどのブランドにとっても、世界最大の市場は米国であり続けるだろう。

If Tesla solely is going to operate in the United States, it is still going to be much more profitable than any other car company can possibly dream about, even if that car company can sell in China and the European Union.

テスラが単独で米国内で事業を展開するのであれば、たとえその自動車会社が中国や欧州連合（EU）で販売できたとしても、他のどの自動車会社も夢見ることができないほどの利益を上げることになるだろう。

Now, European Union is not going to allow cheap Chinese cars to come into European Union because they will drive out of business BMW, they will drive out of business Audi, and the rest of the auto manufacturers in the European Union.

欧州連合（EU）は、安価な中国車のEU入りを認めないだろう。BMWやアウディ、その他EU内の自動車メーカーが廃業に追い込まれるからだ。

But with tariffs happening over here, European countries or brands will not be able to sell their cars in the United States because they will have to pay a 25 percent tariff.

しかし、関税がかかると、ヨーロッパの国やブランドは25％の関税を支払わなければならないため、アメリカで車を売ることができなくなる。

And for Tesla, United States is a much bigger market than European Union can possibly be, so the entire market in the United States will be at the mercy of Tesla.

そしてテスラにとって、米国はEUよりもはるかに大きな市場であり、米国の市場全体がテスラに翻弄されることになる。

And over the next couple of years, as other companies will be spending let's say billions of dollars to build their plants, Tesla is going to keep capturing more market share, and probably like in the next couple of years, they might actually have not just 53 percent of the market just like they have it right now, it might even go to 70 percent.

そして今後2、3年の間に、他社が工場建設に数十億ドルを費やす中、テスラはさらに市場シェアを拡大し、おそらく今後2、3年のうちに、現在のように市場の53％を占めるだけでなく、70％に達するかもしれない。

And if the percentage of sales of EVs in the United States is going to skyrocket, let's say they are going to double for example, that's a hypothetical example.

そして、もし米国でEVの販売比率が急上昇するとしたら、例えば2倍になるとしよう。これは仮定の例だ。

Of course, we are looking into a future where every single car is going to be an EV, maybe not every single car, but something closer to 70-80 percent.

もちろん、私たちはすべての車がEVになる未来を見据えている。すべての車ではないかもしれないが、70～80％に近いかもしれない。

So if China is going 50 percent EV, the United States will at least go 50 percent EV, maybe not 100 percent, so there is a very good probability that Tesla sales are going to grow at least 5 times over the next couple of years as this transition is happening.

つまり、中国が50％EVに移行するのであれば、米国も少なくとも50％EVに移行するだろう。

Those car companies don't stand a chance to compete with Tesla, and all the great brands from pure union will not have that chance, the Chinese brands will not have that chance, that is why probably if you actually zoom out and take a look at everything strategically, you find out that Elon Musk actually made the right bet because he is going to win from these tariffs.

これらの自動車会社はテスラに対抗するチャンスはなく、純粋な連合から生まれたすべての偉大なブランドにもそのチャンスはなく、中国ブランドにもそのチャンスはない。だからこそ、おそらく実際にズームアウトして戦略的にすべてを見れば、イーロン・マスクが実際に正しい賭けをしたことがわかるだろう。

These tariffs are going to make Tesla insanely rich.

この関税はテスラを大金持ちにするだろう。

I'm probably going to get a lot of hate for saying this because a lot of people don't like Elon Musk because he is aligning himself with Trump, but I'm not here trying to pick sides, I'm not saying that I like Elon Musk or I like Tesla or I hate Tesla, I'm not saying all of this, I'm simply saying that this is the situation in the market.

イーロン・マスクがトランプに同調しているため、多くの人がイーロン・マスクを嫌っているからだ。しかし、私はここでどちらかの味方をしようとしているわけではないし、イーロン・マスクが好きだとか、テスラが好きだとか、テスラが嫌いだとか、そういうことを言っているわけでもない。

These are the tariffs, these are the implications of the tariffs, this is the car brands that we have.

これが関税であり、これが関税の意味合いであり、これが私たちが持っている自動車ブランドである。

We have Tesla that has 53 percent of the market, then we have Ford, we have GM and other car brands.

テスラが市場の53％を占め、フォードやGM、その他の自動車ブランドもある。

And over the last 10 or 15 years, they haven't done anything that is close to Tesla.

この10年、15年、テスラに匹敵するようなことは何もしていない。

And right now, because of these tariffs, they will have to spend dozens of billions of dollars to restructure their entire business model in the United States.

そして今、この関税のせいで、彼らはアメリカでのビジネスモデル全体を再構築するために数百億ドルを費やさなければならない。

And I'm not even talking about them building their electric cars in the United States affordably and compete with Tesla.

米国で電気自動車を手頃な価格で製造し、テスラに対抗するという話でもない。

They have other priorities, they will have to spend billions of dollars to bring those factories from Mexico and Canada and China and the rest of the world to the United States and sell the cars where they have the highest demand that make them actually real profits.

メキシコやカナダ、中国やその他の国々から米国に工場を移転し、最も需要の高い場所で車を販売することで、実際に利益を上げるのだ。

And the car company is not a profitable business.

そして、自動車会社は収益性の高いビジネスではない。

Car companies usually make 1 to 5 percent on every single car that they sell.

自動車会社は通常、販売する車1台につき1～5％の利益を得ている。

So it's not literally a glamorous business where they can actually just swallow the extra cost that is coming out with those tariffs.

つまり、関税引き上げに伴う余分な出費をただ飲み込めるような、文字通り華やかなビジネスではないのだ。

So if you think about it strategically, if Elon Musk and Tesla is going to survive this crisis, there is a pretty good chance that Tesla's sales are going to skyrocket in the next couple of years.

戦略的に考えれば、イーロン・マスクとテスラがこの危機を乗り越えようとするならば、テスラの売上が今後2、3年で急増する可能性はかなり高い。

Again, this is a crisis and anything could possibly happen within this crisis.

繰り返すが、これは危機であり、この危機の中では何が起きてもおかしくない。

Maybe it is going to destroy Tesla, but if you think about it, Elon Musk actually took a strategic decision.

もしかしたらテスラを破滅させることになるかもしれないが、考えてみればイーロン・マスクは実際に戦略的な決断を下したのだ。

Yes, Tesla will suffer in the short run, but it seems like in the long run, if his bet is going to pay off, Tesla might worth a lot more than it's worth today.

確かに、テスラは短期的には苦境に立たされるだろうが、長期的に見れば、彼の賭けが実を結ぶなら、テスラの価値は今よりずっと高くなるかもしれない。